80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming

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Scientists Increasingly Discarding

‘Hockey Stick’ Temperature Graphs


Now Updated: 300 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs


“[W]hen it comes to disentangling natural variability from anthropogenically affected variability the vast majority of the instrumental record may be biased.”  — Büntgen et al., 2017


Last year there were at least 60 peer-reviewed papers published in scientific journals demonstrating that Today’s Warming Isn’t Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable.
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Just within the last 5 months, 58 more papers and 80 new graphs have been published that continue to undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.
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Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 100 years.  Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time.  And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few hundred to thousands of years.
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Succinctly, then, scientists publishing in peer-reviewed journals have increasingly affirmed that there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of long-term natural variability.


Büntgen et al., 2017

“Spanning the period 1186-2014 CE, the new reconstruction reveals overall warmer conditions around 1200 and 1400, and again after ~1850.
Little agreement is found with climate model simulations that consistently overestimate recent summer warming and underestimate pre-industrial temperature changes. … [W]hen it comes to disentangling natural variability from anthropogenically affected variability the vast majority of the instrumental record may be biased.




Parker and Ollier, 2017

“The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) v2 temperature time series (GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, 2012) in Alice Spring and all the 36 other stations located in a circle of 1,000 km from Alice Spring do not show any warming. There are stations covering different time windows having very close patterns of temperatures. In this circle of 3,141,593 km2 (roughly 50% of Australia) that is mostly underdeveloped, none of the stations […] has a warming trend.  … It is therefore only an artefact by BOM to produce the warming. Homogenization is supposed to be used to account for upwards biases such as Urban Heat Island, not to introduce upwards biases.  …  In the centre of Australia, all the stations available in a circle of radius 1,000 km were showing very little or no warming, as still acknowledged in the GHCN v2 data set up to October 2011 (Fig. 6). … Table 1 presents the warming trend for the 30 longest temperature records of Australia collected in a single location, with measurements started before 1900 and continued until after 1985.  … In the 30 locations, the monthly mean maximum temperature is warming 0.0004°C/year, or 0.04°C/century. That means there is no change within the limits of accuracy of the measurements. … The climate trend maps compiled by Bureau of Meteorology in their climate change section are completely unreliable, as the alleged increasing temperature is obtained by lowering temperatures of the past by “adjustments”. The longest of the Australian temperature records that were considered the most reliable by Bureau of Meteorology on February 2009 (BOM 2009) are still available as raw temperatures in the climate data online section and consistently show no warming and no increased extreme events within the limit of accuracy of measurements.”


Gennaretti et al., 2017


Abrantes et al., 2017

The transition from warm to colder climatic conditions occurs around 1300 CE associated with the Wolf solar minimum. The coldest SSTs are detected between 1350 and 1850 CE, on Iberia during the well-known Little Ice Age (LIA) (Bradley and Jones, 1993), with the most intense cooling episodes related with other solar minima events, and major volcanic forcing and separated by intervals of relative warmth (e.g. (Crowley and Unterman, 2013; Solanki et al., 2004; Steinhilber et al., 2012; Turner et al., 2016; Usoskin et al., 2011). During the 20th century, the southern records show unusually large decadal scale SST oscillations in the context of the last 2 millennia, in particular after the mid 1970’s, within the Great Solar Maximum (1940 – 2000 (Usoskin et al., 2011)) and the “greater salinity anomaly” event in the northern Atlantic (Dickson et al., 1988), or yet the higher global temperatures of the last 1.4 ky detected by (Ahmed et al., 2013).”


Werner et al., 2017


Deng et al., 2017

The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900–1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850–present) … As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550–1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity.”


Chapanov et al., 2017

“A good agreement exists between the decadal cycles of LOD [length of day], MSL [mean sea level], climate and solar indices whose periods are between 12-13, 14-16, 16-18 and 28-33 years.”


Williams et al., 2017

“Reconstructed SSTs significantly warmed 1.1°C … from 1660s to 1800 (rate of change: 0.008°C/year), followed by a significant cooling of 0.8°C …  until 1840 (rate of change: 0.02°C/year), then a significant warming of 0.8°C from 1860 until the end of reconstruction in 2007 (rate of change: 0.005°C/year).” [The amplitude of sea surface temperature warming and cooling was higher and more rapid from the 1660s to 1800 than from 1860-2007.]
‘In fact, the SST reconstruction significantly co-varied with a reconstruction of solar irradiance [Lean, 2000] on the 11-year periodicity only from ~1745 to 1825. In addition, the reconstructed SSTs were cool during the period of lower than usual solar irradiance called the Maunder minimum (1645–1715) but then warmed and cooled during the Dalton minimum (1795–1830), a second period of reduced solar irradiance. … The Dalton solar minimum and increased volcanic activity in the early 1800s could explain the decreasing SSTs from 1800 to 1850.”


Stenni et al., 2017

“A recent effort to characterize Antarctic and sub-Antarctic climate variability during the last 200 years also concluded that most of the trends observed since satellite climate monitoring began in 1979 CE cannot yet be distinguished from natural (unforced) climate variability (Jones et al., 2016), and are of the opposite sign [cooling, not warming] to those produced by most forced climate model simulations over the same post-1979 CE interval. … (1) Temperatures over the Antarctic continent show an overall cooling trend during the period from 0 to 1900CE, which appears strongest in West Antarctica, and (2) no continent-scale warming of Antarctic temperature is evident in the last century.”


Li et al., 2017


Kobashi et al., 2017

“After the 8.2 ka event, Greenland temperature reached the Holocene thermal maximum with the warmest decades occurring during the Holocene (2.9 ± 1.4 °C warmer than the recent decades) at 7960 ± 30 years B.P. … For the most recent 10 years (2005 to 2015), apart from the anomalously warm year of 2010, mean annual temperatures at the Summit exhibit a slightly decreasing trend in accordance with northern North Atlantic-wide cooling. The Summit temperatures are well correlated with southwest coastal records (Ilulissat, Kangerlussuaq, Nuuk, and Qaqortoq).”

For the most recent 10 years (2005 to 2015), apart from the anomalously warm year of 2010, mean annual temperatures at the Summit exhibit a slightly decreasing trend in accordance with northern North Atlantic-wide cooling.  The Summit temperatures are well correlated with southwest coastal records (Ilulissat, Kangerlussuaq, Nuuk, and Qaqortoq).”


Demezhko et al., 2017

“GST [ground surface temperature] and SHF [surface heat flux] histories differ substantially in shape and chronology. Heat flux changes ahead temperature changes by 500–1000 years.”


Luoto and Nevalainen, 2017


Li et al., 2017

“The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR [Lower Yangtze Region, East China] area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).”


Larsen et al., 2017

[K]nowledge remains sparse of GICs [glaciers and ice caps] fluctuations in Greenland and whether they survived past warmer conditions than today, e.g. the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) ~8-5 cal. ka BP and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) ~1200-950 C.E. Only a few available studies have provided continuous records of Holocene glacier fluctuations in east Greenland (Lowell et al., 2013; Levy et al., 2014; Balascio et al., 2015) and west Greenland (Schweinsberg et al., 2017). These records show that local GICs [glaciers and ice caps] were significantly reduced and most likely completely absent during the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum].”


Zywiec et al., 2017


Ogurtsov et al., 2017

“Our analyses reveal appreciable and stable positive correlation between summer temperatures in Northern Fennoscandia and sea surface temperature in North Atlantic over AD 1567–1986. Thus a connection between climates of Northern Fennoscandia and North Atlantic basin is established for more than the last four centuries. Significant correlation was found between SST [sea surface temperatures] in NA [the North Atlantic] and solar activity (both instrumental data and proxies) during AD 1716–1986. … Thus, the connection between Northern Fennoscandian climate and solar activity, which has been previously established at century-scale (Ogurtsov et al., 2001, 2002, 2013) and millennial-scale (Helama et al., 2010), is confirmed for AD 1716–1986 over the entire frequency range using unfiltered records (with the exception for AMO reconstruction after Mann et al. (2009)).”


Arppe et al., 2017

“The highest δ18O [temperature proxy] value of the record occurs at ca. 1900–1800 cal. yr BP (~50–150 CE), coinciding with a period of general warmth referred to as the Roman Warm Period (RWP). In the North Atlantic Ocean, the RWP interval (ca. 2500–1500 cal. yr BP) is associated with, for example, increased temperatures and productivity, decreased evidence of ice … Northern Hemisphere terrestrial environments widely display evidence of elevated temperatures between 1 and 300 CE (Ljungqvist, 2010). … southern Spitsbergen experienced a significant late-Holocene cold spell prior to the onset of the LIA [Little Ice Age]. These negative shifts overlap with the latter part of a cooling known as the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP, ca. 1500–1000 cal. yr BP; Bianchi and McCave, 1999; McDermott et al., 2001). The event is directly preceded by a minimum in total solar irradiation (Renssen et al., 2006; Steinhilber et al., 2009) … A wealth of proxy evidence testifies to the LIA [Little Ice Age] cooling, thought to have been triggered by reduced solar irradiance, extended volcanism, and internal characteristics of the ocean–atmosphere system (Miller et al., 2010, 2012; Wanner et al., 2011). … Factoring in respective age-model uncertainties, it appears that all major negative shifts, that is, ‘cold’ periods, in the δ18Olw record are roughly synchronous with periods of major negative anomalies in total solar irradiation and high modeled probabilities for extremely cold years in the Nordic Seas (Renssen et al., 2006), and widespread evidence of North Atlantic ‘cold spells’ (Bond et al., 2001; Sarnthein et al., 2003; Solomina et al., 2015; Wanner et al., 2008) linked to solar forcing.”


Mayewski et al., 2017


Rydval et al., 2017

“[T]he recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s“



Reynolds et al., 2017


Rosenthal et al., 2017

“Here we review proxy records of intermediate water temperatures from sediment cores and corals in the equatorial Pacific and northeastern Atlantic Oceans, spanning 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. These records suggests that intermediate waters [0-700 m] were 1.5-2°C warmer during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than in the last century. Intermediate water masses cooled by 0.9°C from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age. These changes are significantly larger than the temperature anomalies documented in the instrumental record. The implied large perturbations in OHC and Earth’s energy budget are at odds with very small radiative forcing anomalies throughout the Holocene and Common Era. … The records suggest that dynamic processes provide an efficient mechanism to amplify small changes in insolation [surface solar radiation] into relatively large changes in OHC.”


Li et al., 2017

“We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC [North China] during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. … It has been widely suggested from both climate modeling and observation data that solar activity plays a key role in driving late Holocene climatic fluctuations by triggering global temperature variability and atmospheric dynamical circulation


Goursaud et al., 2017


Guillet et al., 2017


Wilson et al., 2017


Tegzes et al., 2017

Our sortable-silt time series show prominent multi-decadal to multi-centennial variability, but no clear long-term trend over the past 4200 years. … [O]ur findings indicate that variations in the strength of the main branch of the Atlantic Inflow may not necessarily translate into proportional changes in northward oceanic heat transport in the eastern Nordic Seas.”



Tejedor et al., 2017


Fernández-Fernández et al., 2017


Cai and Liu et al., 2017

“2003– 2009 was the warmest period in the reconstruction. 1970– 2000 was colder than the last stage of the Little Ice Age (LIA).”


Köse et al., 2017

“The reconstruction is punctuated by a temperature increase during the 20th century; yet extreme cold and warm events during the 19th century seem to eclipse conditions during the 20th century. We found significant correlations between our March–April spring temperature reconstruction and existing gridded spring temperature reconstructions for Europe over Turkey and southeastern Europe. … During the last 200 years, our reconstruction suggests that the coldest year was 1898 and the warmest year was 1873. The reconstructed extreme events also coincided with accounts from historical records. …  Further, the warming trends seen in our record agrees with data presented by Turkes and Sumer (2004), of which they attributed [20th century warming] to increased urbanization in Turkey.”


Flannery et al., 2017

The early part of the reconstruction (1733–1850) coincides with the end of the Little Ice Age, and exhibits 3 of the 4 coolest decadal excursions in the record. However, the mean SST estimate from that interval during the LIA is not significantly different from the late 20th Century SST mean. The most prominent cooling event in the 20th Century is a decade centered around 1965. This corresponds to a basin-wide cooling in the North Atlantic and cool phase of the AMO.”


Steiger et al., 2017

“Through several idealized and real proxy experiments we assess the spatial and temporal extent to which isotope records can reconstruct surface temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, and precipitation. We find local reconstruction skill to be most robust across the reconstructions, particularly for temperature and geopotential height, as well as limited non-local skill in the tropics.  These results are in agreement with long-held views that isotopes in ice cores have clear value as local climate proxies, particularly for temperature and atmospheric circulation.”




Mangerud and Svendsen, 2017

“Shallow marine molluscs that are today extinct close to Svalbard, because of the cold climate, are found in deposits there dating to the early Holocene. The most warmth-demanding species found, Zirfaea crispata, currently has a northern limit 1000 km farther south, indicating that August temperatures on Svalbard were 6°C warmer at around 10.2–9.2 cal. ka BP, when this species lived there. … After 8.2 cal. ka, the climate around Svalbard warmed again, and although it did not reach the same peak in temperatures as prior to 9 ka, it was nevertheless some 4°C warmer than present between 8.2 and 6 cal. ka BP. Thereafter, a gradual cooling brought temperatures to the present level at about 4.5 cal. ka BP. The warm early-Holocene climate around Svalbard was driven primarily by higher insolation and greater influx of warm Atlantic Water, but feedback processes further influenced the regional climate.”


Lasher et al., 2017

“This paper presents a multi proxy lake record of NW Greenland Holocene climate. … Summer temperatures (2.5–4 °C warmer than present) persisted until 4 ka [4,000 years ago] … Continual cooling after 4 ka led to coldest temperatures after 1.2 ka, with temperature anomalies 2-3°C below present.  Approximately 1000 km to the south, a 2-3°C July temperature anomaly (relative to [warmer than] present) between 6 and 5 ka was reported based upon chironomid assemblages near Illulisat and Jakobshavn (Axford et al., 2013). Across Baffin Bay on northeastern Baffin Island, HTM summer temperatures were an estimated ~5°C warmer than the pre-industrial late Holocene and 3.5°C warmer than present, based upon chironomid assemblages (Axford et al., 2009; Thomas et al., 2007). … Following deglaciation, the GrIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] retreated behind its present margins (by as much as 20-60 km in some parts of Greenland) during the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] (Larsen et al., 2015; Young and Briner, 2015).”

Chang et al., 2017

“The chironomid-based record from Heihai Lake shows a summer temperature fluctuation within 2.4°C in the last c. 5000 years from the south-east margin of the QTP [Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau]. … The summer temperature changes in this region respond primarily to the variation in the Asian Summer Monsoon. The variability of solar activity is likely an important driver of summer temperatures, either directly or by modifying the strength and intensity of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon. … We observed a relatively long-lasting summer cooling episode (c. 0.8°C lower than the 5000-year average) between c. 270 cal. BP and AD c. 1956. … The record shows cooling episodes occurred at c. 3100, 2600, 2100 and 1600 cal. BP.  This is likely related to the period defined as the Northern Hemisphere Little Ice Age (LIA; c. AD 1350–1850, equivalent to 600–100 cal. BP). These possibly relate to the 500-year quasi-periodic solar cycle. Cooling stages between c. 270 and 100 cal. BP were also recorded and these are possibly linked to the LIA suggesting a hemisphere-wide forcing mechanism for this event.”

 


Krossa et al., 2017


Albot, 2017

Growing paleoclimatic evidence suggests that the climatic signals of Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age events can be detected around the world (Mayewski et al., 2004; Bertler et al., 2011). … [T]he causes for these events are still debated between changes in solar output, increased volcanic activity, shifts in zonal wind distribution, and changes in the meridional overturning circulation (Crowley, 2000; Hunt, 2006).”


Zhang et al., 2017

“[S]ummer temperature variability at the QTP [Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau] responds rapidly to solar irradiance changes in the late Holocene”




Jara et al., 2017


Kotthoff et al., 2017


Li et al., 2017

“Overall, the strong linkage between solar variability and summer SSTs is not only of regional significance, but is also consistent over the entire North Atlantic region.”


Jones et al., 2017


Vachula et al., 2017


Fischel et al., 2017


Li et al., 2017


Anderson et al., 2017


Woodson et al., 2017

The last ca. 1000 years recorded the warmest SST averaging 28.5°C. We record, for the first time in this region, a cool interval, ca. 1000 years in duration, centered on 5000 cal years BP concomitant with a wet period recorded in Borneo. The record also reflects a warm interval from ca. 1000 to 500 cal years BP that may represent the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Variations in the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and solar activity are considered as potential drivers of SST trends. However, hydrology changes related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, ~ shifts of the Western Pacific Warm Pool and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone are more likely to have impacted our SST temporal trend. …  The SA [solar activity] trends (Steinhilber et al., 2012) are in general agreement with the regional cooling of SST (Linsley et al., 2010) and the SA [solar activity] oscillations are roughly coincident with the major excursions in our SST data.”


Koutsodendris et al., 2017

“Representing one of the strongest global climate instabilities during the Holocene, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is marked by a multicentennial-long cooling (14-19th centuries AD) that preceded the recent ‘global warming’ of the 20th century. The cooling has been predominantly attributed to reduced solar activity and was particularly pronounced during the 1645-1715 AD and 1790-1830 AD solar minima, which are known as Maunder and Dalton Minima, respectively.”


Browne et al., 2017


Perșoiu et al., 2017


Kawahata et al., 2017

“The SST [sea surface temperature] shows a broad maximum (~17.3 °C) in the mid-Holocene (5-7 cal kyr BP), which corresponds to the Jomon transgression. … The SST maximum continued for only a century and then the SST [sea surface temperatures] dropped by 3.5 °C [15.1 to 11.6 °C] within two centuries. Several peaks fluctuate by 2°C over a few centuries.”


Saini et al., 2017


Dechnik et al., 2017


Wu et al., 2017


Sun et al., 2017

“Our findings are generally consistent with other records from the ISM [Indian Summer Monsoon]  region, and suggest that the monsoon intensity is primarily controlled by solar irradiance on a centennial time scale. This external forcing may have been amplified by cooling events in the North Atlantic and by ENSO activity in the eastern tropical Pacific, which shifted the ITCZ further southwards.”


Wu et al., 2017

“The existence of depressed MAAT [mean annual temperatures] (1.3°C lower than the 3200-year average) between 1480 CE and 1860 CE (470–90 cal. yr BP) may reflect the manifestation of the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) in southern Costa Rica. Evidence of low-latitude cooling and drought during the ‘LIA’ has been documented at several sites in the circum-Caribbean and from the tropical Andes, where ice cores suggest marked cooling between 1400 CE and 1900 CE.  Lake and marine records recovered from study sites in the southern hemisphere also indicate the occurrence of ‘LIA’ cooling. High atmospheric aerosol concentrations, resulting from several large volcanic eruptions and sea-ice/ocean feedbacks, have been implicated as the drivers responsible for the ‘LIA’.”


Park, 2017

Late Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia was likely driven by ENSO variation.   Our tree pollen index of warmness (TPIW) shows important late Holocene cold events associated with low sunspot periods such as Oort, Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder Minimum. Comparisons among standard Z-scores of filtered TPIW, ΔTSI, and other paleoclimate records from central and northeastern China, off the coast of northern Japan, southern Philippines, and Peru all demonstrate significant relationships [between solar activity and climate]. This suggests that solar activity drove Holocene variations in both East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).”


Markle et al., 2017


Dong et al., 2017


Nazarova et al., 2017

“The application of transfer functions resulted in reconstructed T July fluctuations of approximately 3 °C over the last 2800 years. Low temperatures (11.0-12.0 °C) were reconstructed for the periods between ca 1700 and 1500 cal yr BP (corresponding to the Kofun cold stage) and between ca 1200 and 150 cal yr BP (partly corresponding to the Little Ice Age [LIA]). Warm periods (modern T[emperatures] July or higher) were reconstructed for the periods between ca 2700 and 1800 cal yr BP, 1500 and 1300 cal yr BP and after 150 cal yr BP.”


Samartin et al., 2017


Thienemann et al., 2017

“[P]roxy-inferred annual MATs[annual mean air temperatures] show the lowest value at 11,510 yr BP (7.6°C). Subsequently, temperatures rise to 10.7°C at 9540 yr BP followed by an overall decline of about 2.5°C until present (8.3°C).”


Li et al., 2017

“Contrary to the often-documented warming trend over the past few centuries, but consistent with temperature record from the northern Tibetan Plateau, our data show a gradual decreasing trend of 0.3 °C in mean annual air temperature from 1750 to 1970 CE. This result suggests a gradual cooling trend in some high altitude regions over this interval, which could provide a new explanation for the observed decreasing Asian summer monsoon. In addition, our data indicate an abruptly increased interannual-to decadal-scale temperature variations of 0.8 – 2.2 °C after 1970 CE, in terms of both magnitude and frequency, indicating that the climate system in high altitude regions would become more unstable under current global warming.”

Krawczyk et al., 2017



Pendea et al., 2017  (Russia)

The Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) was a relatively warm period that is commonly associated with the orbitally forced Holocene maximum summer insolation (e.g., Berger, 1978; Bartlein et al., 2011). Its timing varies widely from region to region but is generally detected in paleorecords between 11 and 5 cal ka BP (e.g., Kaufman et al., 2004; Bartlein et al., 2011; Renssen et al., 2012).  … In Kamchatka, the timing of the HTM varies. Dirksen et al. (2013) find warmer-than-present conditions between 9000 and 5000 cal yr BP in central Kamchatka and between 7000 and 5800 cal yr BP at coastal sites.”

Stivrins et al., 2017  (Latvia)

“Conclusion: Using a multi-proxy approach, we studied the dynamics of thermokarst characteristics in western Latvia, where thermokarst occurred exceptionally late at the Holocene Thermal Maximum. …  [A] thermokarst active phase … began 8500 cal. yr BP and lasted at least until 7400 cal. yr BP. Given that thermokarst arise when the mean summer air temperature gradually increased ca. 2°C beyond the modern day temperature, we can argue that before that point, the local geomorphological conditions at the study site must have been exceptional to secure ice-block from the surficial landscape transformation and environmental processes.”

Bañuls-Cardona et al., 2017  (Spain)

“During the Middle Holocene we detect important climatic events. From 7000 to 6800 [years before present] (MIR 23 and MIR22), we register climatic characteristics that could be related to the end of the African Humid Period, namely an increase in temperatures and a progressive reduction in arboreal cover as a result of a decrease in precipitation. The temperatures exceeded current levels by 1°C, especially in MIR23, where the most highly represented taxon is a thermo-Mediterranean species, M. (T.) duodecimcostatus.”

Reid, 2017 (Global)

The small increase in global average temperature observed over the last 166 years is the random variation of a centrally biased random walk. It is a red noise fluctuation. It is not significant, it is not a trend and it is not likely to continue.”

Åkesson et al., 2017 (Norway)

“Reconstructions for southern Norway based on pollen and chironomids suggest that summer temperatures were up to 2 °C higher than present in the period between 8000 and 4000 BP, when solar insolation was higher (Nesje and Dahl, 1991; Bjune et al., 2005; Velle et al., 2005a).”

Molnár and Végvári, 2017 (SE Central Europe)

“Our study provides an estimate for the value of MAT of HTM of Pannon region with an interval of 0.4°C, relying on macroecological considerations. We calculate the temperature of the HTM [Holocene Thermal Maximum] 1.3–1.7°C warmer than the present temperature.”

Lusas et al., 2017 (East Greenland)

“The lack of glacio-lacustrine sediments throughout most of the record suggests that the ice cap was similar to or smaller than present throughout most of the Holocene. This restricted ice extent suggests that climate was similar to or warmer than present, in keeping with other records from Greenland that indicate a warm early and middle Holocene. Middle Holocene magnetic susceptibility oscillations, with a ~200-year frequency in one of the lakes, may relate to solar influence on local catchment processes. … Air temperatures in Milne Land, west of our study area, based on preliminary estimates from chironomids, may have been 3–6°C warmer than at present (Axford et al. 2013), and in Scoresby Sund itself, warm ocean fauna, including Mytilus edulis and Chlamys islandica, both of which live far to the south today, occupied the fjords (Sugden and John 1965; Hjort and Funder 1974; Street 1977; Funder 1978; Bennike and Wagner 2013; Fig. 13).  … Recession of Istorvet ice cap in the last decade has revealed plant remains that show that the glacier was smaller than at present during the early stages of the Medieval Warm Period, but expanded during the late Holocene ca. AD 1150 (Lowell et al. 2013).”

Hu et al., 2017 (Yellow River, China)

“According to the pollen records in the HRYR [Headwater Region of the Yellow River], the climate in the Holocene thermal maximum was warmer and wetter than present (temperature was 2 -3 °C higher than present)
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190 responses to “80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming”

  1. P Gosselin

    Thanks, Kenneth. Nice effort!

    1. Russell

      Why commence picking cherries so far in advance of Washington’s Birthday?

      Pas de zeale , M. Gosselin!

  2. Don B

    Javier:

    “The end of the LIA was obviously natural. Solar activity recovered and volcanic activity diminished. This allowed a natural rebound of the climate to warmer conditions.”

    https://judithcurry.com/2017/05/28/nature-unbound-iii-holocene-climate-variability-part-b/#comment-850029

  3. tom0mason

    And the AGW advocates (aka CO2phobics) looked and ran around shouting —

    “Hockey-sticks!
    Hockey-sticks!
    I see Hockey-sticks!”

    1. SebastianH

      Not running around … just smiling when someone who doesn’t think that models have any value without actual measurements, relies on them in nearly every post.

      Reconstruction are interesting, but do they prove that modern temperature and OHC changes are not man made? Don’t think so.

      Regarding the Hockeystick: http://imgur.com/a/dFnxk (combined the “average of 15 reconstructions” above with a woodfortrees graph)

      1. tom0mason

        seb,
        Again you believe yourself to be a mind reader —

        “Not running around … just smiling when someone who doesn’t think that models have any value without actual measurements, relies on them in nearly every post.”

        Broadly, I do not think models have no value.
        However, I do think assumptions made by CO2-phobic AGW advocates are without value.

        1. SebastianH

          That remark was about the author of the post obviously.

          1. tom0mason

            No seb it is aimed at YOU!

          2. SebastianH

            What? I obviously ment the remark in my reply to the first comment in this thread. How is it possible for you to missunderstand this?

      2. tom0mason

        seb,
        I think no such thing!

    2. Frank Munson

      Another tobacco defense.

  4. sod

    Just take to “northern hemisphere”graphs:

    one with a clear peak at 1400:

    https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Holocene-Cooling-Northern-Hemisphere-Temps-B%C3%BCntgen-2017.jpg

    The other with no such peak, but one in 1100:

    https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Holocene-Cooling-Northern-Hemisphere-Temps-B%C3%BCntgen-2017.jpg

    you combine those graphs, and the peaks VANISH. That is the reason why such “80 graphs” have utterly no meaning. It is just a trick to confuse those who are already confused.

    1. sod

      “to” should be “two”. sorry for the stupid typo.

  5. sod

    Why can i always guess the source of a graph by just reading the headline of a paper?

    http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0958305X16686447?journalCode=eaea

    This is total garbage!

    1. tom0mason

      sod,

      You say “This is total garbage!” A hash judgement indeed.

      Would your judgement be based on —

      a) Climate is a mostly linear system with future events more nearly determined by the past and present events?

      or

      b) Climate is a stochastic, or mostly semi-stochastic system, therefore future events are never completely determined by the past and present events as the climate system contains additional, unknown, random and non-random components and couplings?

      Your ‘specialist’ knowledge on these matters is eagerly awaited.

      1. sod

        you are making the same error that the paper does.

        climate is obviously influenced by random events. Volcanoes are the most obvious example.

        But what this paper does (linear trend over 144 years) is plain out garbage.

        The result says nothing, as does your attempt of a “choice” where there is none.

        1. tom0mason

          Error?
          What error?

    2. tom0mason

      sod,

      You say “This is total garbage!” A hash judgement indeed.

      Would your judgement be based on —

      a) Climate is a mostly linear system with future events more nearly determined by the past and present events?

      or

      b) Climate is a stochastic, or mostly semi-stochastic system, therefore future events are never completely determined by the past and present events as the climate system contains additional, unknown, random and non-random components and couplings?

      Your ‘specialist’ knowledge on these matters is eagerly awaited.

      1. AndyG55

        “A hash judgement ”

        Most of what sob-sob says seems to be based on a generous supply of hash. !!

      2. AndyG55

        sob-sob thinks its garbage.

        So what !!

        That is classed as being ‘totally irrelevant’ to any sort of rational or scientific discussion.

        A baseless, worthless opinion from a low-level, nil-educated, AGW troll.

        An opinion that is known to be pretty much always diametrically opposite to any actual form of REALITY.

    3. tom0mason

      sod,
      I have replied twice now but as usual nothing shows.

      Oh hum, no doubt this will show ….

      1. tom0mason

        Awaiting moderation….

        I’ll be back in a couple of days then?

    4. AndyG55

      “This is total garbage!”

      Yep, your posts always are, sob-sob.

      Absolutely ZERO counter to the article.

      Your post certainly is total garbage.

      1. tom0mason

        Yes indeed Andy,

        Hoever as I have tried too many times to reply to sod, so I’ll try here —

        sod,

        You say “This is total garbage!” A hash judgement indeed.

        Would your judgement be based on —

        a) Climate is a mostly linear system with future events more nearly determined by the past and present events?

        or

        b) Climate is a stochastic, or mostly semi-stochastic system, therefore future events are never completely determined by the past and present events as the climate system contains additional, unknown, random and non-random components and couplings?

        Your ‘specialist’ knowledge on these matters is eagerly awaited.

    5. tom0mason

      sod,

      What upsets you? The conclusion?

      Conclusion

      The process which gives rise to a red spectrum flattened below a cut-off frequency is widely found in engineering and in nature. In electronics, it occurs when electronic noise is fed through an RC integrator as with the bass control of an audio amplifier. In the natural world, it occurs when energy is randomly stored. It is a particular sort of Markov process termed a ‘centrally biased random walk’ and known colloquially as ‘red noise’. Using the techniques described above other ‘oscillations’ such as the Pacific Decade Oscillation can also be shown to be centrally biased random walks specified by a small number of ARMA parameters. This is not surprising since the PDO is derived from a large subset of the global average temperature data used here.

      The small increase in global average temperature observed over the last 166 years is the random variation of a centrally biased random walk. It is a red noise fluctuation. It is not significant, it is not a trend and it is not likely to continue.

  6. tom0mason

    All comments awaiting moderation?

  7. tom0mason

    Buried with the heart of the climate change idea is that ‘climate’ per se is a deterministic system that has large measures of predictability.
    That is to say by analyzing the climate and its many factors and parameters, and reducing its many parts to scientifically describable sub units a mathematical models can be made that mirrors the real climate system and can accurately predict the future climate.

    This, most assuredly, is not the case as this natural system is a host if many and varying parameters, of feedbacks, and of loosely coupled elements, mixed with random events (solar, volcanic, and many unknowns). Thus outcomes of changes within this evolving chaotic matrix of effects is unpredictable for the macro (hence all this variable weather), and only marginally better when forecasting the long term (yes there will be another ice-age probably within 300 years from now).
    Ascribing the microscopic change of one very small element (CO2) as being a major motivator of climate change on this water soaked planet is beyond foolish it is just crass stupidity.

    1. tom0mason

      Also of interest with all the climate models is the lack of assessment of surface winds. Everything from a little breezes to raging storms horizontal winds are ignored. Yes, they are a effect caused by the convective nature of our atmosphere but they are horizontal in nature.

      Would a general (average?) increase or decrease in overall global advection over the years of a few percent (or even 1/10th of a percent) not cause surface temperatures to vary? Would not the oceans warm or cool more (with variations in evaporation) if the wind blowing across them varies.
      So why do the modelers hide themselves from its effects? Maybe it is because science does not understand how it works!
      A very basic characteristic of our weather and climate system is still a mystery and joins the long list of other known effects like clouds, precipitation, solar effects, variations in climate cells, etc…

  8. tom0mason

    In moderation again.

  9. ducdorleans

    Guillet et al., 2017

    nice ! … “les vendanges” as a proxy to temperature ? … well, why not ? …

    but the link goes to a 404 error … I looked in google scholar for a copy of the paper, but to no avail … does anybody have a copy or a link ?

  10. 80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming | Un hobby...

    […] Kenneth Richard, May 29, […]

  11. Craig T

    There are many places that don’t show hockey sticks in their temperature proxy. For example your first graph from Büntgen et al., 2017 of the summer temperature reconstruction of the Pyrenees shows 2000 no higher than 1950. This has been seen before, but the 2012 paper by Büntgen also shows summer temperatures for the Alpine Arc, the Tatra mountains and northern Scandinavia. All of which have hockey stick endings.
    http://imgbox.com/iQAoeDKs

    There is lots of variation from place to place but the topic is global warming. When the reconstructions are averaged together to create a thousand year temperature record for the northern hemisphere the result is a strong hockey stick. (The graph shown includes no instrumental data)
    http://imgbox.com/upR7KnCe

  12. 80 Charts that Show Global Warming Hysteria Is a Fraud

    […] the No Tricks Zone come 80 charts, with lots of commentary, that refute the liberals’ politically-motivated, […]

  13. ELC

    A monumental effort! Thank you.

  14. 80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming – Climate Collections

    […] Source: 80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming […]

  15. Anthony Mills

    Kenneth Richards. You need to write down the surface energy balance for the ocean and evaluate the magnitudes of the various terms.On an average basis ,the absorbed SW flux is about 160 W/m^2, whereas the absorbed LW flux is about 330 W/m^2.Of course, there is an emitted LW flux of about 390 W/m^2.The evaporation flux is about 80 W/m^2, and sensible heat flux is about 15 W/m^2.Clearly,most of the absorbed LW goes to balance the LW emission, thereby reducing the heat loss from the bulk ocean.(The SW absorbed energy is convected from the bulk ocean to the surface.) You cannot partition energy in the way you describe.The laws of heat transfer must be followed.

  16. 80 grafici tratti da 58 nuovi studi (2017) invalidano le rivendicazioni del caldo record moderno e senza precedenti a scala globale : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] Fonte: notrickszone […]

  17. J. Rasmussen

    Global warming/climate change is a CULT, a religion or belief, nothing else!
    Anybody with just a little brain activity and common sense can clearly see that there have always been changes in the climate and that there is no evidence whatsoever that changes are the result of human CO2 releases.
    Just hilarious that it takes so much effort to silence the orthodoxy with all their selfserving and poorly hidden agendas. -sad, too!-

  18. yonason (from my cell phone)

    The careful and respected folks at Powerline have taken notice.
    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/06/80-charts-that-show-global-warming-hysteria-is-a-fraud.php

    That should help get the word out, to Conservatives at least.

  19. Anthony Mills

    Kenneth Richard.Re your rebuttal of my comment:
    1. I stated that my fluxes were on an average basis–in line with the widely used values of Trenberth et al. i.e. global annual averages. Please do not compare apples and oranges.
    2.The net long wave length radiation (emission minus absorption) does cool the ocean–(390-330=60)W/m^2.But the subject was the effect of the absorbed
    ‘back’ LW radiation.
    3.With an absorption of 330 W/m^2 and an evaporative heat loss of 80 W/m^2,it is clear that to assert that the back radiation only goes to cause evaporation is erroneous.
    4.The two radiation fluxes are independent of the surface temperature whereas
    the three convective fluxes are controlled by the surface temperature and the pertinent physical laws.These balance to control the surface temperature.
    5.Your quote “the skin temperature—-“is correct.
    6.The next quote “The cool skin–” is meaningless.
    7. Your remaining references are of doubtful relevance.
    Thanks for your reply.

  20. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 - Live President Donald Trump Popularity Polls

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  21. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 | Politician Direct

    […] as collated by Kenneth Richard at No Tricks Zone, are just some of the charts to prove […]

  22. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 | ValuBit News

    […] as collated by Kenneth Richard at No Tricks Zone, are just some of the charts to prove […]

  23. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 – Your Libertarian NewsCast

    […] as collated by Kenneth Richard at No Tricks Zone, are just some of the charts to prove […]

  24. DELINGPOLE: 'Global Warming' Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 - Breitbart - The Right Side of News

    […] as collated by Kenneth Richard at No Tricks Zone, are just some of the charts to prove […]

  25. AndyG55

    Thanks James, for spreading the FACTS.

    That is the only way to ring this political AGW farce to its knees, then driving a stake through its zombie like lack of heart.

  26. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 – New Right News

    […] as collated by Kenneth Richard at No Tricks Zone, are just some of the charts to prove […]

  27. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 - Telzilla

    […] as collated by Kenneth Richard at No Tricks Zone, are just some of the charts to prove […]

  28. Russell Seitz

    Only a true zealot would commence picking cherries so far in advance of Washington’s Birthday.

  29. 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 Agree Global Warming is a MYTH – The Washington Feed

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  30. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 | Silvia's Boinnk!!!

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  31. 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 Agree Global Warming is a MYTH – USSA News | The Tea Party's Front Page

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  32. Prison Planet.com » ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 – Your Libertarian NewsCast

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  33. Scott Arntson

    Taking my life into my own hands, I head into the lion’s den. I have a few layman’s questions that if anyone could help me with, I’d appreciate it.

    1) Are the 58 papers listed?
    2) Do any of the 58 papers discuss “global variations” or are they all (mostly) discussing a specific region?
    3) Further in regards to question 2, whatever percentage of the 58 papers discuss global variations, how does that compare to the total number of papers that found global temperatures increasing beyond historical precedents?

    Thanks

  34. Wayne McMichael

    It is essential that we clear the globe of forests and jungles, because that is where the VAST majority of the CO2 comes from. We can start by mowing down the Amazon.

  35. ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 – Delingpole World

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  36. ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 | Principia Scientific International

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

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  38. Anthony Mills

    Kenneth Richard. The “deep ocean heat content” has nothing to do with the LW absorption.The LW radiation incident on the ocean surface is known accurately enough, and its absorptance is about 0.9. Engineers use such data to successfully design equipment such as solar ponds,collectors and HVAC systems for buildings.Please read the literature on ‘sky’ or ‘back’ radiation.

  39. “‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017” | GachiYellow

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  40. Jim Pettit

    Did Richard even read some of these papers? For I do not believe that, as a whole, they represent the assumptions/assertions he has made. Purely at random, I clicked on three and found the following:

    “…[T]he last half of the 20th century exhibits climatic conditions not
    evident in the period prior to an anthropogenic influence” (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.sci-hub.cc/doi/10.1002/2017GL073138/full)

    “[T]he coastal areas are also the places where… strong climatic differences can occur over relatively short distances, where there is some evidence for non-significant but emerging development of warming trends, where even small amounts of warming can rapidly move the local climate beyond the threshold and where surface melting of snow occurs potentially leading to widespread impacts of any future Antarctic warming.” (http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2017-40/cp-2017-40.pdf)

    “The limitation with these analog examples… likely underestimate what will be the real climate responses [to… anthropogenic forcing], but they do provide plausible analogs for near-term future climate changes.” (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379116305479)

    Should I read the rest? Do *any* of them support the silly “climate change is a myth” nonsense?

  41. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 – USSA News | The Tea Party's Front Page

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  42. about last night in Paris (a discórdia de Paris v.4) – pmp

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  44. ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 | Headline of the Day

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  46. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 - Fresh Dose News

    […] as collated by Kenneth Richard at No Tricks Zone, are just some of the charts to prove […]

  47. Andre

    Noise is noisy. Especially when it’s taken out of context. That is the only conclusion I can draw from this post.

    Furthermore, the “hockey stick” graphs are dumb. If climate change is actually happening, we won’t be able to see the hockey stick part of it until it’s probably too late to do anything about it. There’s just too much noise in the data.

    I don’t have time to read through all 80 papers, but I did check out a few of them. And I’m not impressed with this post. Take the graph showing temperature in the North Atlantic: -2 degrees Celcius is the freezing point of saltwater, and you’ll notice the graph is basically just hovering around that point or a few degrees above. Lower temperatures correlate with the large amount of ice melt we’re seeing in the Arctic, while higher temperatures, presumably, correlate to years in which they’re wasn’t as much melt-off. Either way the graph tells us nothing.

  48. DELINGPOLE: ‘Global Warming’ Is a Myth, Say 58 Scientific Papers in 2017 - M2 VOICE

    […] warming” is a myth — so say 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed scientific papers published in […]

  49. George

    While so much attention is given to cause of climate change, no one bothers to look at the positive side, even so we know for sure that planet was far warmer in the past.
    Looking at it from practical point of view, most food is grown in northern hemisphere. Just imagine the boundary of arable land in Russia and Canada would extend another 1000 miles. Sure the Sahara would get hotter, but nothing grows there anyway. Seems to me we should prepare for inevitable and make the best out of it instead of arguing what caused it.
    If the ocean rises, are we prepared to relocate coastal areas? Is there an UN plan? Has anyone ever even suggested a plan how to adapt? Instead of “We do something if someone pay us” attitude of PARIS accord, has a single nation suggested “What to do if all fails?” Give that a thought instead!

  50. 80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warming - Grassyknoll

    […] Last year there were at least 60 peer-reviewed papers published in scientific journals demonstrating that Today’s Warming Isn’t Global, Unprecedented, Or Remarkable. . Just within the last 5 months, 58 more papers and 80 new graphs have been published that continue to undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times. . Yes, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 100 years. Some regions have been cooling for decades at a time. And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few hundred to thousands of years. – See more at: https://notrickszone.com/2017/05/29/80-graphs-from-58-new-2017-papers-i… […]

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