German skeptic and weather expert ‘Schneefan’ here writes how climate activist Mark C. Serreze recently announced this year’s sea ice extent was at the smallest all-time area. But since then Arctic temperatures have plummeted and sea ice area has grown to over 14 million square kilometers:
At the sea ice portal, the development is clearly shown.
Chart: University of Bremen
On March 103 2018 sea ice extent in the Arctic reached 14.55 million km² and so the end of Arctic sea ice growth had in fact not been reached.
The plunge in the mean temperature north of 80°N to -25°C can be seen in the plot by the DMI, and so a growth in sea ice was expected.
After an increase to about -10°C in February (due to a weather pattern) the average temperature above 80°N latitude has since fallen to -25°C. Source: DMI.
Naturally the German mainstream media such as ARD television pounced on the news and set off the climate catastrophe alarms, and thus ended up reporting totally falsely again on the real sea ice development in the Arctic: ARD: heat wave in Arctic.
A heat wave at a mean temperature of -10°C?
Below is what the ARD fake “heat wave” really looks like in the Arctic for the entire 2017/18 winter, shown by a plot of the NOAA reanalysis using measured and computed mean temperatures:
The NOAA reanalysis shows the mean 2m-temperatures for the northern hemisphere in the winter of 2017/18. Source: NOAA reanalysis
Perhaps the editors at ARD should have been more careful in checking where this faulty Arctic information came from before coming out with such climate-alarmist fake news.
A check in the Internet shows that the ARD report quoted Mark C. Serreze, a known climate activist, IPCC author and the person who coined the term Arctic sea ice “death spiral”.
He worked earlier together with the now embarrassed Peter Wadhams, who over the past years falsely forecast the disappearance of Arctic sea ice on multiple occasions. What unfortunately has escaped the media, such as ARD, is the fact that the Arctic ice cap at the start of March 2018 is much thicker than it was 10 years ago, see the alternating charts that follow:
Impressive growth: sea ice volume (smaller chart, black curve) is greater in March 2018 than the two previous years and is near the average level (gray area) of the past years.
As everyone is aware, the multiple-year ice melts more slowly than the thinner one-year ice – and so we sill see how many Wadhams (1 Wadham = 1 million km²) will be left in September 2018.
This leads us to conclude that there is nothing left of the absurd, Al Gore envisioned, ice-free Arctic fantasies which were suppose to come true already in 2016.
CO2 has NEVER been shown to drive sea ice levels anyway.
CO12 has never been shown to do anything, but good for plant life.
The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
I can think of CO2 applications good for my life.
Oh, great. Now I’m thirsty and I have nothing to drink.
Why would it? Temperature does.
And as we all know, temperatures have NOTHING to do with atmospheric CO2.
Thanks for FINALLY admitting that FACT, seb.
One TINY step forward.
Now try not to fall flat on your face, or a**e, with your next comment.
That’s your imagination.
It’s really impressive how you fall victim of your own imagination everytime you reply to one of my comments. Could almost be mistaken as master troll techniques … but then, you are imagining I’m the troll, so it must be unintentional on your side, right? 😉
And the obligatory insult … you do not ever disappoint.
And you fell flat on your face, as I KNEW you would.
You MUST be a major disappointment to yourself, ALWAYS..
ZERO-SCIENCE, just mindless yapping.
Poor little seb.
Only one imagining that atmospheric CO2 effects temperatures of anything IS YOU, seb.
If you have proof of your imaginary little anti-science fallacy….. PRODUCE IT. !!
Someday in the future, you will hopefully realize that there are no proofs in physics. When you do, you can start working on disproving the theories that are supported by overwhelming observational evidence and please also work on disproving the correctness of the mechanisms we came up with to explain the observations.
One counter-example or a better explanation is all it takes to disprove a theory, but so far nothing from you or your “side”. You don’t need “hundreds of papers supporting a skeptic world view”, you just need the one paper that conclusively shows that CO2 doesn’t do what scientist currently think it does and are pretty sure of. Good luck!
What overwhelming observational evidence is available that shows humans control the temperatures of the oceans?
Could you provide the one paper that conclusively shows how much heat is generated in water bodies by changing the CO2 concentration in the air above it by 0.000001 (1 ppm)? Physical measurements.
You really want me to repeat this over and over, do you? All evidence points to this. All measurements we have ever taken points to this. The laws of physics point to this.
To disprove this theory YOU need to find one example where this is not the case. Show conclusively that more CO2 in the atmosphere can not cause warming of the oceans! That should be easy if it really doesn’t, right?
Since the effect of more CO2 is logarithmic and not linear you can’t derive a “heat generated by a 1ppm change” value. It will be an equation. The formula for radiative forcing is 5.35 ln(CO2_then/CO2_before) W/m2. For a change from 400 ppm to 401 ppm that is 0.01336 W/m2.
You posted a paper about the timeframe from a one time CO2 burst which concluded that we can expect the complete effect of such a burst after around 10 years. So the forcing will be 0 W/m2 after 10 years, correct? If the decrease is linear we have an average forcing of 0.00668 W/m2 over 10 years from a 1 ppm increase. That’s 2,106,604.8 Joules per m2 of ocean surface.
That’s the amount of warming that comes from the increase of the back radiation alone. Of course, a warmer surface also has increased evaporation, etc, but not all the retained heat is at the surface. This is not like an IR spotlight shining on the surface, heating it. But if it were all in the surface, 2,106,604.8 Joules would be able to raise the temperature of 1000 liters of water by 0.5 degrees (correct?). That would be to a water depth of 1 m … if we only look at the top 10 cm, the water there would warm by 5 degrees.
That’s the heat coming from a 400 to 401 ppm change during the time it takes for the forcing to be balanced again.
Oh and it is kind of important to notice that there is no heat being generated by the greenhouse effect. It’s a heat retention effect. Same as with insulating a 100 W light bulb. The insulation won’t generate the heat that causes the temperature increase of the light bulb.
There is no heat retained seb.
There is ZERO EVIDENCE of this.
And yet again, another IGNORANT IRRELEVANT CHILD-MINDED ANALOGY.
You remain EMPTY except for mindless anti-physics mantra.
Your PATHETIC attempts to fabricate and distort FIZZICS to your AGW meme are HILARIOUS to say the least.
Please keep going. :-)(
“you will hopefully realize that there are no proofs”
We all KNOW there is ZERO-PROOF from you seb….. EVER..
You are EMPTY of any actual scientific proof.
Just mind-numbed AGW mantra.
“The laws of physics point to this.”
….say a nil-educated klutz who has PROVEN he is basically CLUELESS when it comes to any real physics.
So Funny.
There is NO LAW of physics that points to CO2 having ANY warming effect whatsoever.
Its a fabricated anti-science MYTH.
“Show conclusively that more CO2 in the atmosphere can not cause warming of the oceans”
Poor seb, do you also want us to also produce proof that Grimm Bros fairy tales are FAIRY TALE and not reality.
You are asking us to DISPROVE a FAIRY TALE. !!
Quite bizarre, and an ultimately PATHETIC and JUVENILE anti-science attempt to support your imaginary little anti-physics world.
Is that REALLY how DESPERATE you have become?
I repeat……
If you have proof of your imaginary little anti-science fallacy that atmospheric CO2 causes ocean or atmospheric or anything warming…
THEN PRODUCE IT. !!
stop the MANIC EVASION.
Have you forgotten to take your meds, AndyG55? Why the incoherent rambling? Why all this nonsense?
Are you saying you can’t show that a fake news story is fake? Do you really believe that?
It should be fairly easy to find examples where the mechanisms that have been found to be at play in climate science fail. E.g. no heat content increase when incoming radiation increases and thus reduces the net outgoing radiation of an object. Why has no skeptic ever tried doing that in a repeatable setup that conclusively shows that there is some magic happening that nobody has ever thought about before?
Again, THERE IS NO PROOF of anything in physics. https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-proofs-in-physics-and-proofs-in-mathematics
If you think there are proofs in physics, produce one! Any one!
“One counter-example “
There is ABSOLUTELY ZERO signature of any CO2 warming in the whole 40ish years of the satellite temperature record.
QED !!
—-
“You really want me to repeat this over and over, do you? All evidence points to this.”
NO, seb, repeating your mind-numbed mantra EMPTY
You have produced ZERO EVIDENCE that points to anything !!
And the continued juvenile attempts at distraction continue.
You have made it quite clear that you are well aware that there is ZERO EVIDENCE of atmospheric CO2 warming oceans, atmosphere or anything.
That is a very deep hole you are in, and its hilarious watching the sludge keep falling back in on you as you continue to dig deeper and deeper in a vain attempt to justify your incompetence and inability to produce a single piece of real science to back up your mantra.
Antarctic sea ice has started to grow rather rapidly as well now that effects of the El Nino surge of less cold water has dissipated.
And the change in “old ice” from 10 years ago, as shown on the Russian ice data, is so obvious even a wilfully blind AGW sympathiser could see it.
https://s19.postimg.org/7u9de975v/Russian_ice.jpg
Today’s NSIDC shows Arctic sea ice extent ABOVE that of the last 3 years.
… and that is DESPITE the massive amounts of cold air channeled down over varying parts of the NH this year.
Deceitful workers of iniquity!!!
Serreze and Waldham. Two kooks and any publication or so called news source that promotes their claims from either of the two as valid science without checking them should be disregarded for the duration as worthless.
The DMI arctic temperature plot is a nice thing but as far as I can see is derived from 2 stations, to cover 4 million square km. Also the area covered is less than one percent of the Earth’s surface, a spike in temperature her of 10C would make barely a blip in global temperatures even were it not counterbalanced by cooling in North Eurasia, which we’ve certainly had.
Two stations-that explains the variations!
One of them is in an area with high mountains and thus not an representative for sea ice areas if I am correct.
Directly from the DMI site. The explanation of how they arrive at their temperature estimates for both the current plot and the historical data:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf
In modern times DMI use satellite-data.
“The following prognostic variables are taken from the ERA-Interim files and collocated with satellite swath data: wind speed, 2m air temperature, and total column water vapour”.
http://osisaf.met.no/docs/osisaf_cdop2_ss2_pum_sea-ice-conc-climate-data-record_v1p0.pdf
Skeptics celebrating a slight increase in ice extent despite this:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover_30y.uk.php
As if that somehow would show that there wasn’t a “heat wave” in the Artic.
The ice free fantasy will be very real if the September trend continues. 90000 m² per year decline means no sea ice in the summer in around 60 years.
Straight line extrapolation to predict future of a chaotic system? Now I’ve seen everything.
“Straight line extrapolation to predict future of a chaotic system?”
Wadham would be proud of him for his mantra regurgitation.
Notice the DISTINCT UPWARD TREND since the AMO peaked around 10 years ago, seb
Or are you going to ADMIT IGNORANCE of the AMO…??
Are you going to continue to DENY the FACT that temperatures are no warmer around the Arctic now, than they were around 1940?
Are you going to continue to display your wilful ignorance, and DENY that the sea ice extent of the late 1970’s was an extreme, up with the LIA?
Are you going to continue your wilful ignorance and DENY that the Arctic sea ice extent is still in the top 10% of the last 10,000 years?
Climate Change DENIAL really is your thing, isn’t it seb.
Yeah, the skeptic way of interpreting graphs … upward trends everywhere, step increases in between caused by something natural, etc …
Do we have reliable measurements? The 4 stations above 80°N show warmer temperatures now than in the 1940.
Very extreme sea ice extent in the 1970s …
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017744cf5360970d-pi
Reliable data? Aren’t you the one who constantly says heat content could not be measured in the 20th century so we have to ignore everything from back then? And even if what you say is true, does that change the fact that sea ice extent and volume is decreasing rapidly?
I love how you try to make this switcheroo thing work for you …
Your DENIAL of climate history is noted.
The ONLY thing you have is Climate DENIAL when it comes to Arctic sea ice, isn’t it little DENIER.
neven.. roflmao. more modelled garbage.
real data shows otherwise.
https://s19.postimg.org/bwl42st4j/Arctic_ice_DOE.gif
Ocean Heat Content…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrWoG8IckyE
Note that this is in degrees not the tiny little units used in the current OHC fabrications
Keep DENYING that the first 3/4 of the Holocene was way warmer than now , seb
It makes you look even more of a AGW religious nutter.
“The 4 stations above 80°N show warmer temperatures now than in the 1940.”
After AGW cult adjustments.
“Do we have reliable measurements?”
We did have before NOAA/GISS got hold of them. !
“Very extreme sea ice extent in the 1970s …”
Early 1970s, must have been someplace other than near Iceland then, hey seb.
https://s19.postimg.org/bkgbf2prn/Icelandic_sea_ice_index_2.png
Funny how AGW mantra fabrications rarely seem to match REAL DATA, isn’t it. 😉
DNFTT
Sebastian,
Your own chart shows that it not declining anymore since 2006, which is over 11 years of time.
Which is what many skeptics have been pointing out for a while now.
Thank for the help.
Again, the way skeptics interpret graphs is mysterious. You are trying to see a stagnation were none is. Or would you also claim that extent is increasing since 2012? Or since 2008?
It’s the same kind of perception that lets you believe it is getting colder now and the next little ice age is on the door step. Any wind turbines next to you that could cause this madness?
seb’s total lack of comprehension of basic maths is yet again exposed.
DENIAL of the FACT that Arctic sea ice has levelled out since 2008, EXACTLY as one would predict from the AMO
So sad to see even an insignificant ant like seb, so brain-mushed.
Where is the closest wind turbine to you seb ?
If you can take an outlier of a series as starting point the allow me to use an outlier as endpoint. How much has global temperature increased from 2008 up until the end of 2017 (10 years)? What does your precious UAH dataset say?
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2008/to:2018
Oh no, a 0.631°C warming per decade! We are all going to be doomed!
See the problem with your way of seeing graphs?
Please, let’s get back to a bit more elevated level of discussion. This tit-for-tat is getting a bit tiresome and childish.
Yes, its remarkable that the El Nino had so little effect on the Arctic sea ice extent.
Good to see you relying on NON-CO2 El Ninos to show warming, seb.:-)
Sorry you are unable to see the levelling out of the Arctic sea ice over the last 10 or so years.. But I can’t help your wilful blindness.
You wear glasses Seb?
YOUR chart shows year 2007 circle LOWER than the 2017 circle, that means no more declining trend, it has stopped going lower.
Comprehend?
Meanwhile those that actually look find “Exceptionally large amount of winter snow in Northern Hemisphere this year”
Date:
March 14, 2018
Source:
Finnish Meteorological Institute
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180314092708.htm
NSIDC now has 2018 above 2006, 2015, 2016, 2017 for this day of the year.
[…] P. Gosselin, March 14, 2018 in […]
I’m sorry to say that I frequently cannot understand your posts,SebastianH. I remembered this quotation from an essay written by George Orwell.
“The writer either has a meaning and cannot express it, or he inadvertently says something else, or he is almost indifferent as to whether his words mean anything or not. This mixture of vagueness and sheer incompetence is the most marked characteristic of modern English prose, and especially of any kind of political writing. As soon as certain topics are raised, the concrete melts into the abstract and no one seems able to think of turns of speech that are not hackneyed: prose consists less and less of words chosen for the sake of their meaning, and more and more of phrases tacked together like the sections of a prefabricated hen-house. ”
I mean no insult. Prose like this is often found in newspapers and in speeches by local politicians.They too could sharpen up their writing skills.
Politics and the English Language http://www.orwell.ru/library/essays/politics/english/e_polit/
The other contributors to this blog are admirably clear. Probably by much practice in writing scientific reports or theses.
I come here to learn from people who know what they are talking about I hope you do too, though it is not apparent. More practice needed, perhaps
*”what could is” should be “what good is” 😉
Super helpful to let this through, but delete the comment the correction was referring to.
I presume you were referring to my post on George Orwell’s plea for writing clear English?
I cultivate a position of detachment when reading your frequent replies and would like to better understand your point of view. You would have many more followers if you wrote as clearly as Eric Blair ( known as George Orwell).
Detachment is a prerequisite for civilised discussion, as I’m sure you know. If you have a thesis on any relevant subject please let us know about it 🙂
New data just in
NSIDC shows this day 2018 above 2006, 2007, 2015, 2016, 2017.
That is DESPITE the huge amounts of cold air that have been pushed down over the NH this year.
No wonder the Arctic sea ice bed-wetters are starting to PANIC. !!
MASIE now shows 2018 ahead of 2006, 2015, 2016, 2017 (very close to 2007 and 2011)
No trend for 12 years.
https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018_03_16_04_31_30.png