Silent Spring: May, 2021, In Netherlands Poised To Be “Memorably” And “Remarkedly Cold”

Our fellow Dutch climate blogger and friend Klimaatgek writes about how cold this spring has been  in the Netherlands this year, namely April and May.

Not long ago I reported how Germany had seen its fourth coldest April since recordings began in 1881. May so far hasn’t been warm either as the DWD German weather service reported the first 15 days had been the 7th coldest since 1881. The forecast sees more cool and wet weather for the rest of the month.

Now our Dutch friends report on April and May temperatures in the Netherlands:

Also May 2021 will be memorably cold

By Klimaatgek

In the May 5, 2021 post, I wrote about the remarkably cold April month of 2021. The May 17 post was about how a weatherman tried to downplay that very cold April month with the help of a curious little map.

To show how remarkably cold the past April month was, I made three charts: (Tg = average 24 hrs; Tn = min.; Tx = max.):

Fig. 1    Data: KNMI

Fig. 2    Data: KNMI

Fig. 3    Data: KNMI

The graphs are based on 24-hour temperature data for De Bilt. As you probably know, these temperature data were homogenized between 1901 and September 1951. This homogenization is controversial, as has been written about here before. I  used these corrected data to make the above graphs but will indicate further on how the raw measurement data differ from this.

Figure 1 shows the average Tg of the month of April from 1901 through 2021, Tg is the average 24-hour temperature. Tg of April 2021 is shown in red. I did the same in Figure 2 but with Tn, the minimum daily temperature, and in Figure 3 with Tx , the maximum daily temperature of April. In all three figures, the cold month of April 2021 can be clearly observed. It is striking that especially the average Tn (minimum temperature) of April 2021 is very low.

Because the current month of May is also very cold, I also made charts for the month. Since the temperature data for May 21 to May 31 are not yet known at the time of writing, I have used the KNMI forecasts for Tn and Tx and the Weerplaza forecasts for Tg.

Fig. 4    Data KNMI en Weerplaza

Fig. 5    Data KNMI en Weerplaza

Fig. 6    Data KNMI en Weerplaza

It’s a similar story for May: May 2021 is remarkably cold in the series since 1901. The difference with April is that the May 2021’s average Tx (maximum daily temperature) is remarkably low.

To find out whether the homogenization applied by KNMI to the temperature data from De Bilt affects the above picture, I also examined the raw, uncorrected data for April and May. For both the homogenized and the raw data, I calculated the position of April and May in the total series of April and May from 1901 to 2021:

Fig. 7    Data KNMI and Weerplaza

For Tg, Tn and Tx of April and May respectively, using the homogenized data on the left, I calculated how many years were colder than 2021 and how many were warmer than 2021. The picture is clear: April and May 2021 are remarkably cold for the 121-year period.

The right side of the table shows the figures after you apply the raw, uncorrected data from De Bilt. Based on raw data, both April and May 2021 rise a bit further in the ranking of coldest months.

Is all this a sign that we are at the beginning of a cooler period? Maybe so, but it’s hard to draw any firm statements about that I think.

In any case, it shows that the moment you think there is a real trend in the works after a few years of striking heat (and drought), you suddenly find yourself back to reality.

Except for alarmist weathermen, of course.


12 responses to “Silent Spring: May, 2021, In Netherlands Poised To Be “Memorably” And “Remarkedly Cold””

  1. CO2isLife

    The Netherlands aren’t the only place showing no warming. I’ve started collecting all the sites that I can find that show no warming. I have over 500 and counting sites that show no warming up trend (volitility isn’t a warming trend, all these sites have recent temperatures close to what they were decades ago). Here are the Graphics of the Sites.

  2. Shoki Kaneda

    Next year, the (corrected) temperature records will show April and May as the warmest Spring, ever.

    1. Richard Greene

      The “adjustments” will be gradual, after people are told:
      “That’s just weather, not climate”

      followed by:

      “Caused by CO2-realted changes to the jet stream”,
      or something like that.

      Then the numbers will be gradually “adjusted” over the next year.

      And then 2021 will be declared as “the hottest year evah”

      1. Yonason

        @ S.K, and R.G.

        You guys beat me to it. 😁

  3. drumphish

    Turn the heat on! Even out in those tulip fields in the Netherlands.

    Snowed in southern Manitoba two-three days ago.

    The spring weather remains cooler than normal for daily temperatures. Years past, there have been days in the mid 90’s F in May, probably just five years ago.

    Been a couple of days of low 80’s, yesterday’s temp was 49 degrees F at the most.

    Since August of 2019 there has been approximately 21 inches of precipitation up to this time. Far short of seasonal totals that should reach at least 40 inches for the time frame of nearly 21 months.

    The rain has finally arrived and about 3/4 inch has been estimated.

    The first three inches of ground was powder dry, will have some soil moisture now. Weed growth is stymied too, not so much work.

    It was too dry before then, the seeded crops will now germinate. It was nip and tuck, still have to plant crop.

    Needs to be another twelve inches or more before the middle of August then more after that. 12×2.54cm=30.48cm of precipitation, 27,152 gallons per inch per acre, after twelve inches of rainfall and adequate soil moisture, you’ll have some 325,000 gallons of water on each acre, enough to have a decent yield at harvest.

    Drought conditions did persist, but not extreme, small water ponds were drying up, but not totally devoid of water.

    Seems as though a rain pattern has formed and the drought conditions are more or less gone for now.

    Lilacs are an indicator of a warmer spring, they bloom earlier with warmer spring weather. May of 1987 had lilacs in peak bloom on May 10-11. May 18th of this year the lilacs are blooming.

    Lows are expected in the next seven days to be 35 degrees F overnight, could probably be a light frost in low lying areas.

    Harvesting wild-crafted asparagus, probably two pounds. Season lasts until the middle of June, gotta get it while you can.

    Take off your mask, you’ll be okay.

    Don’t let these rip-off artists steal your freedom, the most valuable commodity there is. Don’ts hastas follow their dumbass rules.

  4. oebele bruinsma

    De klimaat gek is zo gek nog niet.

    “Klimaatgek”, a typical example of Dutch humour;
    translated into Queen’s English: The climate geek isn’t insane as advertised.

  5. Iggie

    De Bilt’s original data on GISS NASA before the adjustments (circa 2010).

    The adjustments were probably made after the ‘plateauing’ of the temps after 1998 to keep up the Global Warming meme.

    As they say – the future we know, it’s the past that keeps changing.

    1. David Allen Appell

      Why are you using pre-adjustment data?

      It’s completely unscientific. If you don’t know the reasons for adjustments, it’s bloody time you learned.

  6. ArndB

    HERE is the SST-Anomaly for May 24, 2021, showing sub-temperatures in the North Sea and Skagerrak , confirming what I wrote here at NTZ on 1. May 2021 at 9:36 AM :
    In my opinion, the reasons for the cold spring are related to the high level of use by shipping, off-shore facilities, etc. The two seas are getting warmer and warmer (, but if they are constantly “stirred”, the stored heat is gone in spring. On the one hand, this favors a high pressure trend, which favors little humidity, which results in sunnier days and colder nights. Recent years March/April were similarly
    HERE is today (April 1st) temperature anomaly for EUROPE

  7. David Appell

    “In Netherlands Poised To Be “Memorably” And “Remarkedly Cold””

    A tiny portion of the globe for a tiny period says nothing about global climate change.

    You know that, of course. Why pretend not to?

  8. David Appell

    What percentage of the area of the globe is the Netherlands + Germany?

    I dare you to tell us.

    1. Sidian

      Well, to be fair, it’s unusually cold everywhere in Europe and most of the US. I bet there are new record hights in Central Africa, but wherever there are actual thermometers to take measurements, it’s damn cold. We’ve had exactly two days above 15°C in April in Poland and again two days above 20°C in May. It’s been 12–15°C throughout May, which is extremely cold. Definitely one of the coldest in my lifetime.

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