by Ed Caryl
Solar and ocean cycles indicate that cooling times lay ahead over the coming decades.
One argument against the CAGW hypothesis is the influence of natural cycles controlling weather and climate. In nature, there are many phenomena that are cyclic.
Figure 1. This is solar cycle variation 1975 to 2005, the recent solar maximum. Source: Wikimedia Commons.
The sunspot cycles are particularly obvious. Do these cycles influence the earth’s climate? Here is a table of documented cycles. They range from the shortest cycle found in sunspot numbers, 3.7 years, to the ice-age repeat-time of 100,000 years.
Table 1. This is a list of known cycles and data sources. The links are to the source documents. The background colors suggest related cycles.
The problem with pinning down the exact lengths and relationships of these cycles are two-fold. First, the signal is noisy…very noisy. Some of the noise is due to measurement inaccuracy, and some due to the fact that the real signal is noisy and chaotic. Second, there is modulation present on the signals; they vary a great deal in frequency and amplitude. Some of the modulation is regular, producing predictable effects on the main frequency (the “side-bands” noted in Table 1), and some is noisy and unpredictable.
The sunspot Schwabe cycle varies from 8 to 14 years. The thousand-year long cycles also vary by hundreds of years. But there are still patterns one can see in the lengths. The 3.7-year cycle is one-third of the 11.1-year Schwabe cycle. The 22-year Hale cycle is two Schwabe cycles. The wet/dry cycles observed in the western U. S. and other places are one Schwabe cycle or two Hale cycles. The AMO is three Hale cycles. The Gleissberg cycle is four Hale cycles. These are all related to the sun’s magnetic cycles.
The longer period cycles are also sun cycles; the periodicity is reflected in carbon-14 and other isotopes detected in ice cores, tree rings, and other sources. The primary periods seem to be 210, 420, 710, 1500, and 2200 years, with variation around each of those lengths caused by frequency and amplitude modulation, the shape of the waveform, and “beats” with the Hale cycle. (When you mix two frequencies you get third and fourth frequencies that are frequency 1 minus frequency two and frequency 1 plus frequency two). The Suess/deVries cycle is the spacing between the various named solar minimums: Dalton, Maunder, Sporer, etc. The longer 420-year cycle is twice the 210-year cycle. The 710-year cycle is a half-D-O/Bond event cycle and one-third the Hallstatt cycle.
Do we see these cycles in climate? Yes, of course. As mentioned above, wet/dry cycles, the AMO, and the cooling during solar minimums, are well known. The 200-year cycle discussed in the Lui et al paper, and here, is seen from Tibet to Antarctica. The D-O and Bond event cycles are climate-warming cycles that occur during ice ages and in interglacial times like the present. S. Fred Singer thinks that the recent warming was a Bond event. So does the Chiefio. So does this author. But the warming is over. Vahrenholt is correct, though he may have not gone far enough in his predictions.
Can predictions be made? Where are we in these on-going cycles? Nicola Scafetta uses the cycles from the 20 – 22-year Hale cycle and the 60 to 66-year AMO cycle to predict
much less warming in this century that the IPCC predicts. Dr. Scafetta makes passing mention of the longer cycles but does not factor them into his prediction. We are 210 years from the Dalton minimum of the early 19th century, and 400 years from the Maunder minimum. We are due.
Predictions for solar cycle 25 have it at Maunder minimum levels with a sunspot count under 10. This is a Grand Minimum. The solar cycle length is also getting longer. There seems to be a relationship between solar cycle length, sunspot number, and global temperature. If this relationship holds, we will see cooling of 0.5°C or more in the coming
Habibullo I. Abdussamatov of the Pulkovo Observatory in Russia predicts a reduction in Total Solar Irradience (TSI) of 0.5% by the mid-21 st century and another Little Ice Age lasting until 2100. S. Duhau and C. de Jager of the University of Buenos Aires and the Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, respectively, also forecast a Grand
Minimum in exactly the same time frame and “of the long type”.
Matthew Penn and William Livingston say that sunspots will disappear completely by 2016 to 2022, due to the magnetic fields reducing to a point to low to reveal them.
Counting Vahrenholt and Lüning, the above are seven predictions by seven different methods. All predict cooling in the coming years.
Some of the temperature trend predictions are for cooling to begin in 2014. After examining many temperature records all over the world, I believe that the cooling has already begun.
Figure 2. This is the annual global temperature trend for 2010 to 2011, Note in the upper right corner a figure indicating a global cooling of 0.12°C. Source GISS.
Figure 2 shows a global cooling year over year for last year of 0.12°C. Much of that is Canadian Arctic, Southern Russia, Africa, South Asia, Oceana, and the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Arctic Ocean has yet to accumulate ice to cool Northern Siberia late in the melt season, so that region still shows warm. This will soon change. Next year the cold will come to Europe and Russia earlier because there will be more and earlier ice in the Arctic Ocean. This will become more pronounced in future years. Don’t sell your thermal underwear!