According to a new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, the observed mean thickness of the sea ice in the region north of (Arctic) Svalbard was substantially thinner (0.94 m) in 1955 than it has been in recent years (~1.6 m, 2015/2017).
Graph Source: Rösel et al., 2018
In 1955, the atmospheric CO2 concentration hovered around 315 ppm, about 90 ppm lower than today’s CO2 values.
It is widely assumed that the steep and substantial rise in CO2 concentration since the 1950s is largely responsible for warming the Arctic, and consequently the decline in the Arctic’s sea ice volume and extent (IPCC, 2013). This assumption is significantly predicated on the observation that sea ice has undergone precipitous losses since the 1970s, which is when the satellite era began.
However, longer-term observational data do not appear to support the conclusion that Arctic region sea ice is driven by linear trends in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Indeed, there is evidence that Arctic sea ice extent was comparable or lower than now in the 1940s and 1950s (for example, see this annotated graph from Gagné et al., 2017). Several other recently published papers also fail to support a CO2 – Arctic climate connection, as detailed in several articles found here at NoTricksZone during 2018.
1. 20 New Papers Crush Claims Of A Man-Made Link To Arctic Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, Sea Ice
2. Groundbreaking AGW-Undermining Study: Greenland’s Warming, Ice Loss Due To Geothermal Heat
3. Another New Paper Shows Arctic Sea Ice Has Been INCREASING Overall Since The 1930s
4. 12 New Papers Affirm A 21st Century Cessation Of Arctic Warming And A Rapid Cooling Across Antarctica
5. Arctic Temps 2°-6°C Warmer Than Today With 4.5 Fewer Months Of Sea Ice Coverage 2,000 Years Ago
6. New ‘Consensus’ Science: HALF Of 1979-Present Arctic Warming & Ice Loss Is Natural
7. In 2015, Climate Scientists Wrecked Their Own CO2-Forced ‘Polar Amplification’ Narrative
8. Activists Continue To Peddle Unsupportable Claims Of NEVER-BEFORE Climate Alarm, Ignoring New Science
Regional Arctic sea ice was thicker than now in the 1950s?
In another newly published paper, observations from an Arctic region north of Svalbard affirm that sea ice thicknesses were indeed much higher than today during the 1970s, or when the linearly-decreasing sea ice trend documented by satellites (conveniently) commenced.
However, looking closely at Table 3 (shown in the introductory graph above) from the same paper, we see that sea ice thickness values may have been lower in the mid-1950s (0.94 m) than they are today (~1.6 m thicknesses on average).
If sea ice was was thinner than it is now during the same period of time that CO2 concentrations were substantially lower than they are now, this documented observational evidence appears to again undermine the conclusion that CO2 concentration rises are significantly connected to sea ice losses – or to the Arctic climate in general.
Rösel et al., 2018
Thin Sea Ice, Thick Snow, and Widespread Negative
Freeboard Observed During N‐ICE 2015 North of Svalbard
“We present a continuous time series of in situ measurements from the N‐ICE2015 expedition from January to June 2015 in the Arctic Basin north of Svalbard, comprising snow buoy and ice mass balance buoy data and local and regional data gained from electromagnetic induction (EM) surveys and snow probe measurements from four distinct drifts.
“The observed mean snow depth of 0.53 m for April to early June [2015] is 73% above the average value of 0.30 m from historical [1955, 1970s] and recent observations in this region, covering the years 1955–2017.”
“The modal total ice and snow thicknesses, of 1.6 and 1.7 m [2015] measured with ground‐based EM and airborne EM measurements in April, May, and June 2015, respectively, lie below the [1970s] values ranging from 1.8 to 2.7 m, reported in historical observations from the same region and time of year [but well above the sea-ice thickness values of 0.94 m for 1955].”
“Indeed, there is evidence that Arctic sea ice extent was comparable or lower than now in the 1940s and 1950s (for example, see this annotated graph from Gagné et al., 2017). ”
A quasi-cyclic 60year variation is evident, I wonder what that could be?
Maybe there’s an answer…
Parker and Ollier, 2015
And Kenneth IMO these reports build on your previous https://notrickszone.com/2016/11/28/there-has-been-no-significant-net-change-in-arctic-sea-ice-extent-in-the-last-80-years/
Accounts from 19th-century
Canadian Arctic Explorers’ Logs
Reflect Present Climate Conditions
https://seagrant.uaf.edu/nosb/2005/resources/arctic-explorers.pdf
The dip between the 1920s and 1970s is clearly seen in the Icelandic sea ice data as well.
https://s19.postimg.cc/bkgbf2prn/Icelandic_sea_ice_index_2.png
Did my comment about Kenneth’s faulty logic vanish or did a moderator delete it?
I’ll try it again:
There is no logic in that statement. A classic non sequitur. It’s the “it has been warm before” argument all over.
It is your statement that has no logic. If the ice was thinner during lower CO2 and is now thicker during higher CO2 it it obvious that higher CO2 is not the cause if thinner ice. It was kind of the moderator to allow it.
IMO Pierre is entirely too kind to Sebastian, the resident activist troll, none of whose opinions comport with reality.
PS – thanks for your excellent contributions to exposing the faux-green scams.
Some Arctic sea ice graphs:
https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/images//mean_anomaly_1953-2012.png
https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2017/08/walsh-gmst-sep.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm
May especially the last link get you the right idea of Arctic sea ice development. You know … from those “experts the rest of us trust” …
Some of the available Arctic sea ice graphs showing that modern extent is still much higher than it’s been for nearly all of the last 10,000 years (because modern Arctic temperatures are 2-6 degrees C colder than they were during the Early and Mid-Holocene, when CO2 levels hovered around 260 ppm):
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https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Holocene-Arctic-Sea-Ice-Western-Arctic-Ocean-9500-yrs-ago-to-2001-AD-McKay-2008.jpg
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https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Holocene-Canadian-Arctic-Sea-Ice-Mudie-2005.jpg
–
https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Holocene-Arctic-Sea-Ice-Chukchi-Sea-Yamamoto-2017.jpg
–
https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Holocene-Arctic-Sea-Ice-North-Iceland-Harner-2018.jpg
——————————————————————————
Still more Arctic sea ice graphs showing that sea ice was lower than now during some periods of the 17th to 19th centuries:
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https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NH-Arctic-Sea-Ice-1580-to-2000-de-Vernal-2013.jpg
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https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Holocene-Arctic-Sea-Ice-Beaufort-Sea-Durantou-2012.jpg
–
https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Holocene-Cooling-Greenland-SW-Kryk-2017.jpg
–
For you, the “right idea” of Arctic sea ice = what-I-believe-to-be-true.
DOE (US Dept of Energy) knew the 1950s was a LOW Arctic sea ice period.
https://s19.postimg.cc/6mfheh5tf/DOE.gif
And got the extent spectacularly wrong? Or how else would you explain an annual mean of around 6.15 million km² in 1976 and 12.4 million km² in 1978 when the satellite measurements began?
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/compress:12
Because YOU are ignorant of what is being measured.
Annual mean for what they were measuring is currently around 6.5 Mkm² over the last 10 or so years
Read carefully and at least TRY to figure it out, dummy !!
1976 was a middling year in the satellite data as well seb.
There was a LARGE gain between 1976 and 1979
Do at least TRY to keep up. !!
There is no particular reason for you to remain perpetually ignorant, just remove the mind block and try to think for yourself.
100000 years, Kenneth! Your article was about 1955. And no, “it was warm before” or this derivation of “ice extent was low before” is not an argument against man made global warming.
So sea ice extent was lower during the cold period? Does that make sense to you?
There was a spike in the middle of the LIA, seb
And periods of the 1900’s were WARMER than now.
https://s19.postimg.cc/vh4l0jigj/Changing_Arctic_1922.png
Guess you were UNAWARE of that , as well.
Add it to the very long list.
You really don’t pay much attention to ANYTHING to do with reality or facts, do you seb.
Just regurgitate what you were told you to say.
Zero rational thought or learning required.
CO2 levels were 315 ppm in 1955. They were 330 ppm during the 1970s. And yet Arctic sea ice extent and volume both increased from the 1940s-’50s to the 1970s (because the Arctic cooled during the 1940s to 1980s even though CO2 levels rose during that period). This does not appear to support the CO2-driven Arctic climate narrative. Neither do the graphs of the paleoclimate, as sea ice was much lower than now when CO2 levels were hovering around 260 ppm.
So whether or not it makes sense to me is a factor that needs to be considered when assessing the conclusions of peer-reviewed scientific papers showing Arctic sea ice was lower during some parts of the 18th century, 19th century, and early 20th century? Why do you insist upon making the conclusions from these scientific papers and graphs about me…instead of about the papers themselves?
Does it make sense to you that Antarctic sea ice has been increasing since the 1970s, but declined during the 1950s to 1970s…considering the low levels of CO2 during the 1950-78 period (310-330 ppm) and the (much) higher CO2 levels since the late 1970s? It does when we consider the Southern Ocean warmed during the low CO2 period and warmed during the high CO2 period — undermining claims that CO2 concentrations are linked to sea ice changes.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/fan.antarctic_seaice_trends.grl14.pdf
“For the Southern Ocean as a whole, sea surface temperature has decreased by approximately 0.6°C in December-February (0.4°C in the annual mean) while Antarctic sea ice cover has increased by approximately 9% in December-February (12% in the annual mean) during 1979-2011. … This study compares the distribution of surface climate trends over the Southern Ocean in austral summer between 1979–2011 and 1950–1978, using a wide variety of data sets including uninterpolated gridded marine archives, land station data, reanalysis, and satellite products. Apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent regions, sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures decreased during 1979–2011, consistent with the expansion of Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, the Southern Ocean and coastal Antarctica warmed during 1950–1978.”
—
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1
“During phases of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean warms, the abyssal Southern Ocean cools, Antarctic sea ice extent retreats, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean weakens. After the halt of deep convection, the surface Southern Ocean cools, the abyssal Southern Ocean warms, Antarctic sea ice expands, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean intensifies, consistent with what has been observed during the recent decades.”
ROFLMAO. really seb, why the continued junk science.
First two are FABRICATION from the AGW stall-warts.
Agenda driven nonsense, based on NOTHING but need.
You KNOW that Arctic sea ice follows temperature, right seb.. you have stated as such, MANY TIMES.
Well here are the temperatures from several places around the Arctic.
https://s19.postimg.cc/vws4z68s3/arctic_temp.png
And here is a REALISTIC reconstruction of Arctic sea ice.
https://s19.postimg.cc/hcmhnqak3/Arctic-_Sea-_Ice-_Alekseev-2016-as-shown-in-_Connolly-2017.jpg
Notice anything ??
Or are you going to turn around and tell us all that Arctic temperature and Arctic sea ice are uncorrelated.?
The last link is the well worn out propaganda starting point of 1979, the COLDEST period since 1900.. Of course there was more sea ice then.
Real point is that current levels are ABOVE 90-95% of the last 10,000 years, they are ANOMALOULSY HIGH
ONLY the freezing cold anomaly of the LIA, and the late 1970s, (extent up there with that anomalously cold period), have had more sea ice than now.
That is because the planet is only a small bump up from the LIA.
Why do you DENY that the LIA was anomalously cold.
Why do you DENY that the warming since then has been wholly beneficial.
Why do you DENY that basically from the MWP backward to the start of the Holocene was WARMER than now.
All this DENIAL is makes you sound like a real Climate Change Denier.
And that is the entire reason I don’t put in the extra effort of always presenting science. Nothing gets through to you, if it is opposing your world view it is automatically “a fabrication”. Great talking to you, not!
Yep, it is very different from other reconstructions.
P.S.: You don’t need to write the world “DENY” or “DENIAL” that often. Otherwise one gets the impression that you are describing yourself. Because you know, you have to write the word “conspiracy” in order to be a conspiracy theorist, so writing those words surely makes you a denier [pseudoskeptic logic] 😉
pssss.. seb,
You don’t have the be in TOTAL DENIAL all your life.
And there’s that conspiracy meme of yours again.
So slap-stick hilarious , seb
It is noted that you cannot counter one thing I said.
You also failed to see the Arctic sea ice matching real temperatures, unlike the first two fabrications.
Are you DENYING that Arctic temperature is related to Arctic sea ice ?
Are you DENYING that when its colder then you get more sea ice.
.. and are you DENYING that when its warmer you get less sea ice.
You poor thing, you have just destroyed the use of naturally diminished Arctic sea ice as an indicator of the fantasy of “global warming”
Cognitive malfunction and comedic faceplant, all in one, seb
HILARIOUS. 🙂
Cheers AndyG55,
“First two are FABRICATION from the AGW stall-warts.”
😀 ☺️ 😁 😀 😍 🤣
LOL, that apt phrase made me chuckle.
The AGW scam will continue until there is a definitive cooling for several years.
The expenditure of financial and political capital is just too much to back down now.
However in 10-15 years most of the cynical/ignorant politicians, climastrologists and rent-seeker will have retired or croaked.
Sickeningly, none of these criminals will ever be brought to account.
You’d need a cooling that is definetly not caused by the Sun or other known variables. Why? Because our CO2 “scam” doesn’t say that it will continuously warm at all. That is only the prediction which takes all the other variables into account too. If the Sun were to suddenly half its output, it would certainly cool, but the enhanced GHE would also still be there.
I hope so too … all the retirees fantasizing about AGW being a scam hopefully had a nice time not enjoying their retirements by trying to push nonsense on us and be gone by then. Stop trying to sabotage our world angry old folks!
There is ZERO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE that CO2 has caused ANY of the hugely beneficial warming out of the LIA, seb
You KNOW THAT, because you CANNOT produce any, and I bet you have wasted HUGE amounts of time searching ;-).
All you have left is to blindly and mindlessly keep chanting about FANTASY CO2 warming, in some BIZARRE religious fundamentalist way.
STOP being petulant, nil-educated, juvenile, know-nothing, seb.
And STOP destroying the environment and avian wildlife with wind turbines and solar farms
And STOP foisting the enormous subsidies of the AGW unreliables and the high costs of a secondary erratic supply system onto society.
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A great little read about 1922
https://s19.postimg.cc/vh4l0jigj/Changing_Arctic_1922.png
Must have been all the CO2 from model T Fords ! 😉
There was ice on the north coast of Spitzbergen this year.
Still some left even now, well into the melt cycle.
So sea ice extent was lower during the cold period?
Of course the sea ice extent could have been lower during the Maunder Minimum. Didn’t somebody think,that low solar activity could change the direction of winds? For example a warm ocean current from Lybia to the U.S.A. and a current from Europe to Newfoundland and then to Iceland? Also Benjamin Franklin heared from fishers, that in former times there was a current from Newfoundland to Iceland. But he thought, that this was the Gulf Stream, which course at his time would have been changed by the growing of the Grand Banks. But he wasn’t right. It wasn’t the Gulf Stream:
http://libweb5.princeton.edu/visual_materials/maps/websites/thematic-maps/quantitative/hydrography/happel-map-1675.jpg
Another nice little piece of Arctic history.
https://s19.postimg.cc/vcg6sr50z/Arctic_sea_1122.gif
But Andy, we can see the oceans rising so much faster now, because of the melting.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/06/20/uk-sea-level-rise-in-2017/
OK, it may not be obvious from the data, but that’s why you have to have faith, and lots of it, …and maybe a pair of these glasses?
http://www.toptenz.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/xray-specs.jpg
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