The German GKSS research centre located near Hamburg has put out a press release that kind of baffles me. Early Warning System For Heat Waves Necessary.
The press release starts:
After a very cold winter, a heat wave has gripped Germany. All signs point to July being the hottest month ever since records have been kept. The heat wave hit us just as surprisingly as the past extreme winter. So far there have not been any reliable instruments for predicting extremes. The Climate Service Center of the GKSS ResearchCentre in Geesthacht recommends improving forecast models.
I’ve been living in Germany since 1990, and to me this has not been a really hot summer. We’ve had some hot days, but with cool weather in between over the last 4 weeks – whoopie. It’s being hyped and milked for all it’s worth.
But that is not what surprises me. What surprises me is the claim there are no reliable instruments for predicting heat waves and cold waves. The press release states:
Currently it is not possible to make reliable seasonal forecasts for Europe, and to sort of predict extremely hot summers or heat waves. This is urgently needed in order to be able to implement the necessary adaptive measures and thus reduce the negative impacts on man and environment.
I think that’s crap. There are number of organisations that have had pretty good track records in making seasonal forecasts. So where could the notion that there are no reliable forecasts come from?
The press release amply cites the NOAA.
Voila! There’s your answer. If you rely on dubious institutions for your information, then you can only reach the “no-reliable-forecasts” conclusion. And we also know that the Met Office, with their super computers, failed miserably in their seasonal forecasts, so much so that they became a laughing stock and have since given it up.
But to say there no reliable forecasts available for Europe is false. There are. For example, how is it that Joe Bastardi of Accuweather has consistently called them right? Joe not only predicted the hot summer back in February/March (early warning enough I’d say), but also forecast the cold winter back last fall. Contact him. Maybe his data sources and models are better – less corrupt.
I called Rüdiger Braun, GKSS press spokesman, and he was kind enough to explain that the target is to simply build upon the existing system and to improve it.
Sounds reasonable. My suggestion then is that they start by separating the bad forecast models from the good ones, and to take it from there.
Finally, it’s peculiar how climate scientists insist their 20, 50 and 100-year projections are spot on, while other scientists fret about the lack of reliable 3-month forecasts.
And finally here’s the forecast for my town here in Germany. 20°C is a heat wave, right?