Sustainable Postponements…Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute Pushes “Ice-Free Arctic” Back To 2050!

In 2009 Al Gore predicted an ice-free Arctic by 2014. It never materialized – not even close.

Not to be outdone, John Kerry upped the ante and boldly proclaimed an ice-free Arctic by 2013. That too was utter nonsense.

In 2010 oceanography researcher Wieslaw Maslowski claimed: “Near ice-free summer Arctic might become a reality much sooner than GCMs predict“. This was reported in the press as “US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016“.

Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet, a Canadian research network, said the sea ice was melting faster than predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

An earlier National Climate Assessment report wrote that models that best match historical trends project a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer by the 2030s.

Other real experts were less dramatic with their predictions. For example in 2009 Overland & Wang predicted that there would be an ice-free Arctic in the summer by 2037. A 2006 paper by Marika Holland et al. predicted “near ice-free September conditions by 2040″. Tony Heller, a.k.a. Steve Goddard, has an entire list of ice-free Arctic predictions.

Postponed again to 2050

Now polar conditions have stopped cooperating, and sea ice looks poised to defy the projections. A couple of days ago I wrote here about how natural cycles are now aligning to lead to more sea ice cover over the next one or two decades, and that global sea ice levels are back to normal levels – a fact that the end-of-world obsessors are finding difficult to come to terms with.

The recent sea ice developments even have the government-funded alarmist institutes now in a state of anyxiety. Already we are beginning to see them push back the predicted date of an ice-free Arctic. The latest example come from Germany’s prestigious, yet alarmist, Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) for polar and ocean research – so reports Germany’s Deutschland Funk national public radio here in an interview with Christiane Habermalz, Arctic Ny Alesund station engineer of the AWI.

In the interview Habermalz insists that the Arctic is the “hot-spot” of global warming, and that sea ice is melting faster than expected (Fact: it isn’t at all). She claims that the Arctic is warming 1.3°C per decade, basing that on only two decades of data: from 1993 to present. She also did not hold back from giving the impression that the trend would continue unabated, but then adding:

…in any case during the Arctic summer more and more of the sea ice is melting further and there are increasingly greater ice-free zones. That is something that also the scientists here at Ny Alesund have said, and that when the melting of the sea ice continues the scenario of an ice-free pole by 2040/2050 is very likely.”

2050? That’s a far cry from what we’ve been hearing from other experts over the last years.

There are some interesting statements here. First Habermalz is implying that it will take a sustained 1.3°C per decade of Arctic warming for this to happen. But as most people who have read about the Arctic know, temperatures there go in cycles. The warm cycle has already reached its peak and so the temperature level there needed to melt the ice by 2030 will not be reached. Thus the 2040/50 ice-free scenario won’t happen as calculated by the AWI. (By ice-free, we mean over a number of years, and not a single outlier year, which cannot be excluded). The AWI knows it, and so now we are seeing a conscious postponement of an ice-free Arctic.

Of course expect the AWI and similar institutes to keep ringing the alarm bells, but at the same time quietly move the goalposts back as reality dawns.

Finally, what do the experts project this summer’s Arctic sea ice minimum to be this year? Joe Bastardi tells us at his Saturday Summary here at the 13:15 min mark:

2015 Arctic sea ice forecast

US government NCEP forecast for Arctic sea ice anomaly this year. Source: Weatherbell.

Obviously the AWI has gotten the message, and so now the Arctic horror predictions have been pushed back to a future time, one far enough into the future that by then everyone will have forgotten all the silly, hysterical predictions made during the 2000s.

 

Scientists On Trial? Retired Lawyer’s Blogsite To Examine Earlier “Predictions” Made By Climate “Experts”

38 Models_ Joe BastardiWe already have Climate Audit, but now it looks like we may be getting “Climate Scientists on Trial”. Here’s a site you’ll want to subscribe to, bookmark – or at least visit on a regular basis:

climatechangepredictions.org

As the name says, it focusses on earlier climate predictions made by the global warming alarmists (and there have been many) and compares them to what really happened. The climatechangepredictions.org site is run by Ian Hipwell, a retired lawyer from Sydney, Australia.

I think Ian will be a real asset because in his profession one is often trained to hold people’s feet to fire. Many like to say or write things, but are they able to back it all up later on. After all people who listen to these experts often act and make decisions based on the things said, and thus may incur either benefit or major damage as a result.

Alarmist scientists have said lots of things in the past, and it’s time to go back and look at them. The approach could be something like: Mr. Scientist, 15 years ago you said snow and ice would be things of the past, yet we are now seeing record snowfalls and harsh winters. Which is the lie?

In an e-mail to me Ian has written that although he is not scientifically trained, he has “followed the climate change issue as a hobby for some years. It was the name calling by AGW supporters that first made me suspect that the case wasn’t as strong as we had been led to believe.”

He writes that his intention is “to invite people to consider that perhaps the science isn’t settled after all“. Yes, the jury is still out.

And because so many of the earlier predictions made over the past 40 years have been within the realms of absurdity, Ian writes that the blog will surely provide a fair amount of humor. Indeed. For us skeptics the earlier claims of snow being “a thing of the past” and the Arctic being ice free by 2014 still continue to be the source of much laughter.

I think having this kind of blog, which devotes effort on examining past predictions, is a great idea because this is what science really gets down to. After all if the observations contradict the hypothesis and predictions, then the hypothesis is simply wrong.

 

German Meteorologist Says Climate Models Have Gotten 11 Of The Past 12 European Summers Wrong!

German meteorologist Dominik Jung writes at wetter.net that the first preliminary forecast for Central Europe for the upcoming summer issued by the NOAA does not look very favorable. Expect a “grisly summer”, he writes.

He writes that over the last 10 years spring has generally been on the warm and sunny side, but that Central Europeans have had to pay a price for that by having to put up with wet and variable summer weather.

Models wrong 11 out of 12 years!

Jung then reminds us that the climate models have been very wrong with their 2003 predictions that Central Europeans in the future would have to expect hot, barbecued summers like the one seen in 2003. Back then climatologists warned the public to get used to such summers, as it was all consistent with global warming. Turns out that prediction has been a complete flop. Jung writes:

Do you recall the climate prophets after the hottest and driest summer of all time in the 2003 prophesizing more drought summers? None of that has occurred. Of the 11 summers that followed, 7 were wetter than the long-term mean, i.e. too much rain. Moreover predictions of sustained heat waves failed to come true. Four summers turned out to be almost normal and only one single summer was about 15% too dry. The majority of the past summers saw no large heat waves. It was hot only for a few days, with really cooler days with thundershowers in between.

That could be again the case this year. According to the long-term trend of the US weather service, March and April could turn out to be warmer, sunnier and drier than normal. A few days ago the first trend for the months of June, July, August was calculated by the US colleagues and things don’t look better than the past – in fact it looks a little worse!

This year could be a grisly summer. The US long-term model sees no summer month that will be warmer than the long-term average. All three summer months should be at near normal temperatures and accompanied by more precipitation than normal. August is forecast to be especially wet.”

But Jung warns that these are only long-term projections and that one should not put too much stock in them. Many readers here are aware that the seasonal forecasts made by the US weather services (and those of the UK Met Office) often leave much to be desired.

In fact assuming the opposite would likely be a better prediction.

 

Spiegel Demolishes Syria War-Climate Change Paper By Kelley et al. …”Hardly Tenable” … “Distraction From Real Problems”

Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski here looks at the new paper Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought,” PNAS, March 2, 2015 by Kelley et al, which claims the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the war in the region.

A number of major news outlets, such as the New York Times and the AP were quick to uncritically dispense it as gospel truth.

Anthony Watts provides good background here.

Spiegel’s view is much more critical and skeptical of the paper’s findings and overall methodology when compared to the New York Times or AP. The online German magazine writes:

An alarming study has created a commotion worldwide. The authors claim that climate change contributed to the drought and civil war in Syria. However this claim is hardly tenable.”

Models in wide disagreement

Bojanowski writes that the decisive evidence in the paper is based on climate models, which show drier conditions for Syria as the greenhouse effect intensifies. However Bojanowski later points out that the climate system in Syria is highly complex and that even the IPCC questions the capability of models reliably simulating the climate system of Syria and that the models are in wide disagreement:

The region lies on the boundary of three climate regions where the weather patterns are hardly understood, the IPCC report says. Foremost the climate simulation models diverge widely from each other when it comes to precipitation. It thus appears unwarranted to use the results of models as a way of confirming the effect of greenhouse gases, believes [William]Briggs.”

Sparse data

Another problem with the study, Spiegel reports, is that the data used were way too sparse, and quoted climate scientist Tim Brücher of the Max Planck Institute for Meterology: “The data should have been handled more critically.”

“Renders a poor service on behalf of climate science”

Probably seeing the paper more as an embarrassment rather than a contribution to science, even warmist institutes were unable to refrain from critique. Bojanowski quotes Thomas Bernauer, a conflict researcher at ETH in Zürich: “The entire paper is problematic as it renders a poor service on behalf of climate science.”

“Study is problematic at a number of levels”

In total Bojanowski says scientists criticize the paper on five aspects, saying that after the criticism, nothing is really left of the paper. According to Spiegel, University of Hamburg expert Tobias Ide says, “The study is problematic at a number of levels.” Peace scientist Christiane Fröhlich of the same university says the civil war “had more to do with wealthy citizens provoking it“.

“A distraction” from the real causes

Francesca De Châtel, Syria expert at Radboud University in Nijmegen, called the paper “a distraction” from the real causes of the war, and pointed out that drought periods are more the norm for the region. The problems stem foremost from land mismanagement and shoddy agricultural practices. Bojanowski quotes De Châtel: “The role of climate change is not only irrelevant, emphasizing it is even damaging.”

No evidence linking drought to civil war

Also Norwegian doctoral candidate Ole Magnus Theisen states that there is no evidence of a relationship between drought and conflict, Spiegel writes.

Bojanowski adds that “the climate argument allows politicians to blame others outside of the country for the hunger.” The Spiegel journalist sums up the science of tying climate change to war in general:

The main causes of civil wars are political. The future security of Africa does not depend on climate, rather on political and economic development.”

In summary one would not be wrong in concluding that the PNAS was definitely asleep during the review of the paper. Hard to get any shoddier.

Spiegel report here.

 

The Final Countdown Begins: Planet Has Less Than 11 Months To Go Before Al Gore’s Predicted Fiery Death!

Conservative radio talkshow host Rush Limbaugh’s countdown clock now shows less than 11 months to go before our blue oceanic planet starts sizzling for good.

Countdown

Cropped from Rush Limbaugh site.

About a decade ago Al Gore was earnestly predicting the planet had only another 10 years if we failed to dramatically reduce our CO2 emissions. Well, we haven’t cut them at all. In fact CO2 emissions have grown very strongly since then.

Yet, so far the global mean temperature is not any warmer than it was 10 years ago, just before Gore made the bold prediction – see chart that follows. Same was true a year ago.

Hadrcut

Current 10-year trend even shows slight cooling tendency. Source: Woodfortrees.org.

Countdown for what’s left of Gore’s reputation

Woodfortrees chart shows that global temperatures have not risen at all since Gore issued his warning. Ironically the countdown is actually turning out to be one for Mr. Gore’s reputation. In fact none of the predictions the Nobel Peace prize winner made in his Oscar-winning movie are coming true. There’s been no warming, and the poles even have more sea ice today – about 1 million sq. km more!

At his site Limbaugh quoted Larry David, husband of AIT producer Laurie David:

You know, Al is a funny guy, but he’s also a very serious guy who believes humans may have only 10 years left to save the planet from turning into a total frying pan.”

CO2 climate science, like all sciences, is also proving to be flat out wrong. The difference here is that there is so much at stake that no one wants to admit it.

 

Meteorologist Calls Forecast Of A “Majorca Winter” For Europe “Stupidity”…Winter, Snow And Cold Grip Continent

Earlier this year as the late autumn ran mild and the winter started well on the mild side  for Central Europe, meteorologists were projecting a “Majorca Winter”, after the tropical-like Spanish Island which is noted for its sunny and warm year-round weather. A sort of “barbeque winter” was all the talk.

But recently winter has tightened its grip over the continent, with snow and cold taking hold. Today Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann released his latest Youtube video calling that forecast nonsense.

Once again snow and winter refuse being relegated to a “thing of the past”.

The flamboyant Kachelmann, who is notoriously critical of seasonal forecasts, tells viewers the source of the current winter weather is a stubborn low centered over North central Europe that is pumping cold, unsettled air from the North Sea down over the mainland. Kachelmann sees the pattern sticking around for minimum 7 to 10 days, possibly longer.

Once you get away from the North Sea it really is winter everywhere and it’s going to stay that way for the next several days, with below normal temperatures; a longer winter phase – and so it was clear from the start with this nonsense of a Majorca winter with only very brief periods of cold and snow and so on; it was all stupidity – there’s going to be more snow…”

The NCEP forecast until mid February sees more of the same:

Europe Feb 7 - 15 2015Winter extending to Spain. Image cropped here.

The above longer term forecast may change, of course. However the weather models runs have been pretty coming up with the same result for that last couple of days, and so don’t start dreaming of spring weather just yet.

Now is as a good a time as any to book a ski holiday in the mountains.

 

Tim Flannery “Has Plenty Of Company In The Dunce’s Corner” …Climate Science’s Long List Of Failed Predictions

Good article at Quadrant magazine here on the background behind the many failed predictions of disaster in climate science and the strange characters behind them.

Hat tip: reader Stefan.
========================

Warmists Take the Hardest Hits

Anyone can be a prophet of doom….

Why can’t the global-warming catastrophe industry convince the public that the scare underwriting its meal ticket is real? Even the CSIRO’s  annual survey last year  showed that 53% of Australians reject the official story. And even on the CSIRO’s figures, Aussies rank climate fourteenth out of sixteen concerns overall, and we rate it only seventh out of eight even among environmental concerns. In Britain, more of the same, with a new survey showing those who describe themselves “very concerned” about climate change falling to 18%, down from 44% in 2005.

Partly to blame is that dratted 18-year halt to global warming, even as man-made CO2 continues to pour into the skies. But my theory is that the global warming industry has made itself so ridiculous over the past 30 years, so hyperventilatingly ludicrous, by predicting ever-more-dire catastrophes by the year 20XX.  But then year 20XX   comes and goes and life continues as normal. …

Continue reading here

Part 2 Of Documentary Totally Dismisses/Contradicts Michael Mann’s Claim Of A Steady Climate Since 1000 A.D.

Yesterday I posted on Part 1 of German ZDF television’s Terra-X series two-part documentary on climate and human history appearing on January 11  and 18. Part 1 covered the world’s climatic changes that occurred during the last ice age and up to the time of the Roman Empire.

Part 1 clearly showed that the earth’s climate changed naturally, at times very dramatically within a matter of a decade or two. Warm periods were accompanied by rains and periods of vibrant human prosperity. Cold periods saw droughts, crop failures, mass migrations and deadly political and societal instability.

Warm Roman Empire

Today the focus is on Part 2, which looks at the earth’s climate since the Roman Empire until today. It starts by stating how the “paradise-like” warmth during peak period of the Roman Empire was brought on by the optimal orientation between the earth and sun. The warm Roman period was marked by “stability” says Mark Maslin (3:10).

Tree ring studies from oak trees show that “the temperature 100 year before Christ indeed rose. On average the temperature was 2°C warmer than 100 years earlier” (3:37). Clearly such an increase is more than double today’s increase the globe has seen since 1900. That high Roman temperature level stayed some 300 years, the documentary tells us, allowing for “stable and strong growth“.

At the 4:30 mark the documentary tells us that glaciers in the Alps melted and allowed the Romans to expand their empire all the way to Scotland. The warm period also took hold globally, says the ZDF documentary, and was not a regional phenomena. The ZDF documentary shows at the 5:40 mark how the Chinese Empire blossomed at around 200 BC. All thanks to the sun.

Finally at the 8:24 mark German researcher Gunther Hischfelder of the University of Regensburg tells that the Romans eventually ran into an enemy they even could not vanquish: “Over the long-term there was one opponent that became so strong that even the Romans could not conquer it, and that was climate change.”

Always the sun

Surprisingly at the 8:38 mark, the ZDF documentary tells viewers something that has long been taboo in Germany:

Every climate change is controlled from outer space. It depends on the earth’s orbit around the sun, the tilt of its axis and on the predominant solar activity. After the change in times the solar activity was probably weaker and the Gulf current delivered less heat.”

This, the documentary says, led to a “clear [natural] cooling (9:00)“. Already in Part 2 we see that climate temperature changes of 2°C over a matter of decades were nothing unusual – and were all owing to natural factors that scientists today refuse to acknowledge are in play.

Cold…fall of Roman Empire

As the cooler temperatures began to take over during the Roman period, catastrophic droughts took hold and crop failures led to starvation. Rome was under pressure to supply food to its remote territories and outposts.

To illustrate the degree hardship, scientists analyzed the bones of a north German teenager uncovered from the swamps(10:10). DNA analysis of the arm and leg bones showed severe malnutrition. Twelve of the child’s 14 years were spent in a state of “severe hunger”. As had happened many times over the course of history, mass migrations occurred as cold led to crop failures.

Just before the end of the Roman Empire, these migrations were facilitated as natural borders and barriers such as large rivers and marshes froze over and allowed people easily walk across them (11:40).  For example in the year 406 AD, 90,000 Germanic tribespeople crossed a Frozen Rhine river and into Roman territory (11:58) in a single day. Bit by bit the Roman Empire was invaded before collapsing ushering in the post Roman dark ages.

llopango

This dark period was exacerbated further by the mega-eruption of llopango in El Salvador (13:02), which led to written records of extreme cold and darkness in the year 536 AD. Scientists believe the eruption ejected 84 cubic kilometers of ash into the atmosphere, destroying everything within a 1000 km radius and darkening the skies over Europe and even China. Ash from the llopango eruption is even seen in ice cores from Antarctica (15:55). The material reached into the stratosphere and caused an “18-month long climate anomaly of cold and darkness“. Millions of people of people died as a result.

As fear gripped the planet and nature regained the upper hand, the conditions became ideal for religions to thrive, warning of the wrath of God and offering the hope of salvation (20:00).

Rise of Central American civilizations

While war and fear plagued Europe, climate conditions were however ideal in Central America, and civilizations there blossomed (22:00). At the 22:30 mark we see the Nazca Lines (before they were ruined by Greenpeace). By 900 AD, natural climate change struck the Central American region again as prolonged droughts ground down the once mighty Latin American cultures (22:45). What was behind the sudden change? At the 23:20 mark the documentary again points at the sun.

Responsible was solar activity.”

Medieval Warm Period by the sun

But the documentary dances around about how solar activity impacts the earth, hinting at basic solar irradiance, and avoiding Svensmark’s theory.  At the 24:15 mark:

That also applies to the year 800 AD. The sun is at a maximum activity. It’s irradiance especially strong. The blue planet gradually begins to heat up.”

The warmth, the documentary says, “opened up the Arctic from North America to Europe” and allowed explorers to venture out and the Vikings to settle in “an almost ice-free” Iceland and in Greenland (25:30) 1050 years ago. Lief Ericson reached Newfoundland at about the year 1000 AD (26:30). In Europe the warming took hold with a vengeance. The documentary says at the 26:50 mark:

On average the temperature was 3°C warmer than the years before.”

Europe was transformed into a rich bread-basket (27:20). The weather was once again stable and planning was possible. At this point we get hints that the documentary is trying to tells us that normal weather in warm times is stable. Yet history tells us that storms also occurred during the warm Medieval Period.

Gunther Hischfelder tells that the warm period of the Medieval Period had consquences (29:25):

The creation of cities was a response to climate change and provided the spark for a take-off for human history, an explosion in culture and civilization, and is thus the reason it is the cornerstone for the creation of our modern world.”

All thanks to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), which was as warm and even warmer than today. At the 29:50 mark we see that “three quarters of Germany’s cities were created during the Medieval Warm Period”. Growth exploded all over Europe. By the year 1250 AD, “Europe’s societies were as strong as never before” (31:35).

Strangely, and probably on purpose, the ZDF documentary focusses only on Europe for its look at the Medieval Warm Period, and presents no examples of it occurring at other locations on the globe – as it did for the earlier warm periods. Is the ZDF trying to have us believe that MWP was regionally isolated in Europe? Scientific proxy data tell us it was warm all over the globe.

Sun strangely disappears as a climate factor in the year 1250

At the 32:00 mark the documentary looks at the beginning of the end of the MWP: “In the second half of the thirteenth century it got markedly colder in Europe“. The reason was a number of erupting volcanoes at various locations around the globe, the documentary says (32:10) that it cooled the global climate for almost 500 years. So according to the ZDF, the sun stopped playing a role in climate change 800 years ago. Strange that all the other climate changes before that, the sun was always to blame.

No matter what the real reason for the post MWP cooling may have been, the ZDF tells us that it was warm during the Medieval Warm Period and that it then cooled substantially after 1300 AD. That de facto refutes the bogus claims of a steady climate made by Michael Mann.

Longest cold period since the last ice age

In fact, the ZDF documentary calls the Little Ice Age, which had a solid lock on Europe by the year 1500 AD, “the longest cold period since the last ice age” (33:15).  And there’s a huge magnitude of literature available from the times clearly documenting the extreme weather and hardship endured by Europe during this time. Here old records describe extreme storms and harsh weather, crop failures, starvation, pestilence and widespread death (36:00). In just 100 years, the population reduced by one third. Fear gripped the continent and sorcerers were blamed (36:50). (Sound familiar?) 60,000 people were burned at the stake for “cooperating with the Devil” in brewing bad weather. Today we have crazed lawyers wanting to put industries on trial for the same thing.

Clearly the ZDF documentary tells us that cold periods are disasters, and warm ones, like the one we are witnessing today, are hugely advantageous.

At the 37:30 mark the ZDF describes how glaciers advanced over North America, Scandinavia and the Alps, where entire villages were swallowed by the ice. Things got so bad that Europe plunged into war and mayhem (38:20), eventually culminating in the French Revolution (39:10). The final icing on the cake was delivered by the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815, which gave the world the year without a summer in 1816 (40:30).

Modern warming – sun nowhere near in sight

The Little ice Age ended around 1850 with what the ZDF suprisingly calls the “beginning of a period with moderate and stable temperatures. It characterizes the weather until today.” (41:30).

At the 42:00 minute mark the ZDF finally deviates from reason, claiming that for the first time in history, with industrialization, man has changed the climate of the earth. No more mention of the sun as a factor, which made its last appearance on the climate stage 800 years ago. Now it’s mankind’s fault. I was expecting the documentary to end in this silly way, and I was not wrong in doing so.

Mad Maslin

Mark Maslin at the end puts the icing on the cake, making a totally insane comment at the 42:30 mark where he proclaims that man actually now has the chance to take control of the climate – away from the sun, oceans and other forces of nature. Try not to burst out laughing:

We are now at the point where we can decide what the climate of the future will look like. When we as a world community, all nations working together, are able to really prevent global warming, that would be fantastic. That would be the first time that the climate doesn’t control us, but rather us would control it. We can make sure that all future generations will have a stable climate.”

Wow! Just pay them indulgences. Apart from Maslin’s and the ZDF’s sheer nonsense in the last two minutes, an excellent documentary on the climate since the last ice age.

 

Activist Dana Nuccitelli Starting To Sweat? Satellite Data Show Current Decade Running COOLER Than The Previous!

Many readers will recall the climate bet for charity this site and its readers (the coolists) entered into against the climate alarmists, principally climate loudmouth Dana Nuccitelli and Rob Honeycutt, back in January 2011.

The coolists maintain that the 2011 – 2020 decade will be the same or cooler than the 2001 – 2010 decade. The alarmists of course are absolutely convinced that the current decade will be warmer.

Listening to the media lately, one might think that the coolists are getting trounced. Nothing could be further from the truth. The bet is based on the RSS and UAH satellite data, and they tell us a different story. Nuccitelli and his buddies can cite NOAA, GISS or NCDC all they want, but those datasets are not going to matter come 12/31/2020.

Robin Pittwood of the Kiwithinker has been so kind to tabulate the race so far as it develops. The first four years of the decade are now behind us, and Robin tells the coolists are maintaining a slight lead. Yes, this decade so far is running COOLER than the previous one! Hardly a good development for the Nuccitelli & Co. The dang oceans must have eaten up all the heat.

Climate Bet_Robin Pittwood

Chart shows this decade continues to be cooler than the previous one. Source: Robin Pittwood of the Kiwthinker.

With the current CO2 emissions trajectory running at the IPCC’s worst case scenario, this decade so far theoretically should have been at least a good 0.2°C warmer, and certainly not cooler. Something must have gone terribly wrong for the cocky climate boy-wonder in California.

Robin writes:

We are now 40% through the race … and clearly it is still close with the coolists in the lead by half a nose.

Now back to the hype we’re hearing about the ‘hot’ 2014. Notice that during 2014 (months 37 to 48) the green line just keeps trucking along at the same basic slope as it has for the past few years and much of the previous decade too. There was even a small El Nino in 2014, whose effect is conspicuous by its absence. Maybe the heat that is missing in the observed atmospheric temperature trend is hiding in the ocean?  ;-)”

So we’ve got another 6 years to go and now is a good time to speculate how those might go. Personally I expect 2015 to be a warm one as well, because of the current Tiny Tim El Nino. But then we all know what happens after an El Nino. Right, global temperatures tend to drop due to La Nina that follows.

Also boding ill for Nuccitelli and Co. is the projection that the current solar cycle will soon be winding down and so it is quite possible we will be seeing a cool period around 2018, similar to what we saw back around 2008. Indeed it’s too early to call it for the coolists, but I must say I’m quite comfortable with our current position.

Let’s assume that the coolists do win the bet and thus deliver the major upset. How will the warmists react? Are they going to cry foul? Or are they going to be relieved and a bit happy because the planet is not warming like they thought. That would be the rational reaction.

I doubt very much Dana is sweating about this at all. He’s a master rationalizer and will creatively concoct a way to deny it.

Awhile back at this site William “Winston” Connelly demanded that the terms of the bet be modified. Sorry, it is a bit late for that, and it’s not his bet anyway.

Should the coolists win, the warmists are going to have a lot explaining to do. But they are well prepared, as already there is a huge supply of excuses out there for them to choose from.

And even if the warmists should somehow eke out a victory, it’ll be quite a hollow one because they all claimed it would be min. 0.2° warmer. A few hundredths warmer would also take the air out of the alarmism.

Fun blogging lies ahead.

 

Climatologists’ Projections Defied…25-Year Trend For German Winters Shows Cooling! …”Snow Has Not Disappeared”

In 2014, Germany and parts of Europe will be seeing their warmest year ever since temperature recording began in earnest late in the 19th century. The media and alarmists are giddy about this, even though most of it is due to a global weather pattern that worked to deliver an almost steady stream of warm southerly air over the continent: especially early this year, over the autumn, and the end of the year. It’s all pattern related.

Moreover, as the warmists like to say when cold strikes, it’s just one year and does not in any way represent a trend.

Not long ago some climate scientists announced winters with snow would be a thing of the past in Europe. Global warming, they said, would be especially noticeable in the wintertime. But then in the late 2000s and early 2010s, a string of harsh winters gripped the old continent and the trend in Germany went downhill: colder and snowier winters.

Veteran journalist Ulli Kulke of Germany’s national daily Die Welt writes at his blog that the tendency over the last two and half decades – since before the first IPCC report was ever issued – has been slight cooling and no warming to speak of. He writes of Germany’s winters:

The winters between 2001 and 2010 were on average 0.1°C colder than the 1991 – 2000 decade. And the winters between 2011 and 2014 were also 0.1°C colder than the 2001-2010 decade. Even if we are talking only about tenths of a degree, the climate discussion is actually all about such magnitudes. So anyone who had the impression of hard winter times was not wrong. The tendency of winter temperatures has been downward over the past two and half decades, and not upwards. […] Snow has not disappeared.”

So with the general winter trend in Germany and Central Europe slightly downward, spooked climate scientists had to scramble to concoct an explanation. Kulke continues:

As the cold winters became undeniable, decisive institutes came up with the original idea of tracing the icy temperatures back to global warming. The reason for this was the disappearing Arctic sea ice around the North Pole. In a press release from the institute, Vladimir Petoukhov of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is quoted as having stated concerning a study of his: Disturbances in air currents, caused by the disappearance of ice ‘could increase the probability of the occurrence of extremely cold winters in Europe and North Asia by a factor of three’. In summary: ‘Hard winters such as last year’s or 2005/06 do not contradict global warming, rather they more so confirm it.’“

The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Ocean Research also presented a similar paper. The warming Arctic, Kulke explains, was supposed to alter the pressure difference between the Azores and Iceland, and thus produce more favorable conditions for cold winters to take hold over Europe. Kulke calls the logic behind the theory weak, writing that there’s a lot of controversy swirling around it, especially in view that it was produced after the fact.

Kulke’s piece in general points out that the theories of the global warming scientists are not doing well when compared to real observations. For example he ends his piece with a look at the Arctic and global temperatures:

In addition it is turning out that the Arctic sea ice may increase in size. And as before the time-out taken by the global temperature increase continues on. No one knows how long it’s going to go on, even if this year a high will be reached because of an El Nino.”

Another blow to the models.

 

2014/15 Super El Niño Gets “The Kiss Of Death”…Climatologists’ Prediction Of Warming Planet Crumbles Again

Joe Bastardi’s latest Weatherbell Saturday Summary is out. This week the high-profile, veteran meteorologist has some interesting comments on sea surface temperatures and this year’s once highly ballyhooed “super El Niño“.

Remember how earlier this year a number a climatology experts were all giddy because somehow they had managed to convince themselves that a “super El Niño” was supposedly in the pipeline and, after having waited 18 long years, warming would finally resume and shut the skeptics up once and for all. Well, their prediction losing streak refuses to end and it just got extended again.

At the 6:45 mark Joe remarks:

You can see the water near Australia is beginning to warm up and the water in the eastern Pacific is starting to cool. That is the kiss of death for El Niño, so this El Niño, just like we were saying back in April: No super El Niño. It comes on for the winter, and then it goes. There’s no 2 or 3-year El Niño coming up, or what these guys that want the globe to warm up so that whatever is going with the climate fight and that type of thing. It’s not happening. We took them apart with the super El Niño, and I’ll take them apart again for these guys who think this thing is going to run on for 2 years.”

Sea Surface temps 27 Dec 2014

NCEP sea surface temperature anomaly shows “Kiss of Death” for this season’s El Niño. Source: cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary.

Joe then elaborates some on why global temperatures are currently at a high level, saying that it’s due to the warm northeast Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly. Joe thinks these anomalies will flip and be cold over the next 2 or 3 years – pointing out that this is nothing new and that it has all happened before.

Snow in North Africa

The Weatherbell meteorologist shows how extreme cold is set to spread across much of the US over the coming days and weeks and that it’s also going to be cold in Europe, with even “snow in the mountains of North Africa”.

 

Climate Witchcraft Booms: Global WARMING To Cause More Severe Winters…But Green Energies Causing COOLING!

The global warmists are in a disarray vortex. Their science now insists that it is both cooling and warming – at the same time!

In the complex, convoluted and clashing parallel worlds of the global warming alarmists, everything is possible. Physical laws are bent, twisted, completely redefined, or ignored altogether with every passing day.

More of anything proves warming, as so does less of the same.

New paper from Japan forecasts colder winters

Despite the dozens of predictions of warming winters coming from the global warming alarmists just 5 years ago and earlier, they have recently turned on a dime and are now projecting cold, snowy winters because of global warming. This once again is being reiterated in a new Japanese paper and echoed by number one German alarmist site Klimaretter (Climate Rescuers).

Severe winter probability “will double”!

Klimaretter writes:

Global warming is leading to a contradictory effect: Already today the risk of a colder than average winter is higher than it was a few decades ago.”

Later it writes:

And this trend is expected to continue over the coming decades: The probability of more severe winters in Europe and North Asia will double because of climate change. This is what Japanese scientists are projecting in Nature Geoscience.”

Sound Orwellian? For the propagandist Klimaretter, no science is too absurd to believe – so long as it’s catastrophist. If a Japanese paper claims so or if the climate models of the Alfred Wegener Institute and the Potsdam Institute looking 50 years into the future say so, then it’s good enough for them (never mind these models have already got the first 20 years all wrong).

Green energy has stopped global warming?

Not only is global warming now responsible for the higher risk of cold winters, but also the recent warming pause (which proves warming) is now being attributed to a successful green energy revolution. Having a very hard time explaining the recent warming pause to the public and realizing that attributing it to warming is a tough sell to the public, a spooked UK Energy Minister Baroness Sandip Verma has just come up with a better explanation for the unforeseen pause: the green energy revolution is likely already having a cooling effect on the planet and is already saving it (never mind that CO2 concentrations and fossil fuel burning are rising unabated).

Unfortunately Verma’s explanation is just as absurd as the first one.

Medieval witchcraft and rain dancing

It’s increasingly obvious that government officials are becoming embarrassed by the unexpected global warming pause and are desperate to explain it without losing face. Like rain dancers and witches claiming their acts have produced the desired result, British pols are now asking us to believe that the act of erecting windmills and covering rooftops with solar panels has pleased the climate gods – and so the warming has stopped.

The real problem, however, is that the global warming alarmists are no longer able to get their stories straight and are falling over themselves in their panicked scramble to explain their already failed model predictions. While some claim that cooling is caused by a real global warming, others are admitting that the real warming has really stopped, and done so because of the green energies they’ve wisely introduced! The warmists are in disarray.

So it’s little wonder Weather Channel founder John Coleman calls it all “incredible bad bad science” and that Climate Depot calls it “Medieval witchcraft“.

 

Viennese Climate Waltz…Austrian Media/State Officials Still Using Faulty Models, Misleading The Public

UPDATE: Ed Caryl provided the following:

Vienna_1995_2015

Based on GISS data

========================================

Even though IPCC climate models and expected climate trends have proven themselves to be completely false and useless, see here and here, parts of the Austrian media and state sector have no qualms using them, and in doing so they are misleading the public.

A recent example is the climate-alarmist Vienna-based Der Standard online daily in a recent piece titled: Climate in Vienna: More heat days, new plants.

The whole premise of the story is based on the climate models being right, which in fact today we know they have been universally wrong.

Palm trees in Vienna in a few decades!

In the article written by Christa Minkin and Julia Schilly, it is claimed that palm trees are to be expected in “a few decades in the Viennese forest – thanks to climate change,” citing ecologist Franz Essl of the Austrian Federal Ministry of Environment.

Minkin and Schilly also warn that Vienna is going to be hot in the future, all exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, citing “a new Austrian expert report on climate change“.

In 1910 there were only two heat days – i.e. temperatures over 30°C. In 2000 already 17 were measured.”

Der Standard also looks very deeply into the climate crystal ball…all the way to the year 2070 to 2100. Minkin and Schilly write:

For the period of 2070 to 2100 researchers anticipate a rise to more than 35 heat days per year on average. At the same time nights in Vienna will cool down less.”

Moreover, foreign plants will begin their invasion and displace domestic ones, the experts warn.

Slight cooling over the last 16 years

So with all the warnings of more unbearable heat days in the future, one might assume that temperatures in Austria must be currently on the rise. I searched the Internet for the temperature data series for Vienna, but unfortunately I wasn’t successful finding it. So I contacted the European Institute for Climate and Energy to see if they might be able to help out. They answered promptly by e-mail (slightly paraphrased):

Unfortunately we do not have the more recent data because the Austrian Weather Service does not make them public, only up to 2003. That’s why it’s not possible to show the last 15 years graphically, and so climatologists in Austria can claim whatever they want.”

Fortunately, EIKE was able to provide the recent data for Graz city center. Here we see despite the urban location there’s been a slight cooling.

Graz temperature trend

Mean annual temperature for Graz city center over the last 16 years.

The trend in Graz matches the overall trend of a slight cooling over central Europe over the last two decades.

So with the IPCC models having performed so horrendously, and in view of the fact there has been no warming trend in Austria for 16 years, it is truly a mystery how anyone could claim that summer heat days will just keep on rising linearly until the end of the century.

When the models are failures, then the future projections based on them are worthless.

 

Extreme Stupidity: Bremen’s ‘Weser Kurier’ Daily Now Claiming Climate Change Is Damaging Church Organs

This story is a perfect illustration of how today’s journalists will print anything they told by swindling climate scientists.
==========================================

Bremen’s Weser Kurier daily is very sure: “Climate change is damaging organs”

By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

The newspaper of the German port city of Bremen, the Weser Kurier surprised its readers on September 8 with almost unbelievable news:

Climate change is damaging organs

It sounds like a paradox, but the consequences of climate change were visible to see with the St. Andreas Church organ a few weeks ago. ‘The instrument was beset by mold and mildew“, says organ builder Martin Hillebrand from Isernhagen. For about six weeks he and his team have been working in the church to meticulously clean the organ and to fine-tune the pipes.”

We already suspected climate change for many things, but its role as a vandal of church organs is something new. So how does it cause mold and mildew to infest the organ? How does that work? The Weser Kurier tells us:

The mold infestation in the instrument is not a single occurrence – quite to the contrary. According to Hillebrand about 70 percent of the organs in so-called village churches are under attack. ‘This involves mainly churches where the people congregate for mass only every other week or less often. These churches are thus heated less and so in the wintertime they quickly become very prone to moisture,’ said the expert. Fungus attacks are also helped by warm, moist climate in the summertime. ‘Research instituites have shown that this and the relative humidity will increase in the future,’ says Hillebrand.”

So it’s not really due to climate change, but moreso people are going to church less and less? Those who do not heat have to expect mold – that’s been a well-known rule for a very long time. Warm, humid summers in Germany are also known. In summer it’s warm, and in winter it’s cold. What’s new? Only the relative humidity remains. Has it really risen over the last decades because of climate change? Here we take a look at the data from Braunschweig at the norddeutschen Klimamonitor website (Figure 1).

Oh dear, the relative humidity has actually trended downwards over the last 50 years. Climate change is not guilty! The problem actually appears to be caused by the lack of heating in churches, which promotes mold infestation. The climate-activist Weser Kurier once again regrettably has told its readers nonsense. The editors would surely welcome some letters from readers. Here is their contact page.

Figure 1: Trend of relative humidity in Braunschweig. Source: norddeutscher Klimamonitor.

 

“Self-Inflicted Apocalypse Fascination”! Germany’s Leading Daily Fed Up With End-Of-World Scenarios, Climate Catastrophe!

Germany’s major media takes a landmark step, one could argue.

At their Die kalte Sonne site, geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and chemist Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt point out a recent article appearing in Germany’s no. 1 daily by circulation (2.5 million), Bild. Apparently the Axel Springer publication is getting fed up with all the global warming catastrophe nonsense.

Note that Bild is the world’s 6th largest newspaper.
=================================

Bild daily has had enough of the climatic end of the world  “Apocalypse? No!”
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt

Bild daily has had enough of the constant screaming of alarm, and expressed it in very clear terms on September 11, 2014:

World refuses to end: Apocalypse? No!

Ozone hole, bird flu, Mayan curse or El Niño: How occupational pessimists, esoteric eggheads, astro-kooks and eco-freaks constantly want to talk us into the end of the world.

For 30 years we feared the ozone hole that had exposed us without protection to insidious UV rays: Until Wednesday. Then all of a sudden the UN announced: The ozone layer is well on its way to regeneration. This was not the first time that creepy end-of-world scenarios turned out to be a mix of fear-mongering and self-inflicted apocalypse fascination, […]

4. Climate change is melting the poles

Hardly anything in science is more at loggerheads than the question of to what extent man causes climate change. It’s an undisputed fact that the amount of carbon dioxide and other ‘greenhouse gases’ in the air has risen strongly since industrialization, recently at a record level, and also the rise in global mean temperature (currently globally at 0.13°C per decade). But on the other hand the warnings of the dramatic melting of the poles and horror flooding of the poor Pacific islands have proven to be exaggerated. Currently the sea level is rising 3.2 mm per year. And the melting at the poles? Last summer the sea ice area in the Arctic compared to a year earlier rose 60%. 20 ships had to be rescued by ice breakers.”

Read the entire article at bild.de.

=======================================

Adding to Vahrenholt’s and Lünings piece, in its article Bild brings up 8 once claimed end-of-world scenarios that never came true: 1) acid rain/forest die-off, 2) Mayan Calendar, 3)  2014/2015 El Niño, 4) poles melting/climate change, 5) bird flu, 6) Nostradamus, 7) 1910 Haley’s Comet, and 8) nuclear inferno.

Bild sarcastically ends the part about the climate catastrophe with a photo of a semi-submerged Brandenburg Gate with the caption:

The Brandenburg Gate has remained completely spared by the ‘worst environmental catastrophe since Chernobyl’.”

Glad to see Bild is taking this step when it comes to the kooky climate catastrophe. It served them well, but now they are moving on.

 

German DWD Weather Service Reverses Earlier Climate Forecasts, Thus Confirm They Are Loads Of Bull-Manure

Some years ago German “climate experts” were all forecasting hot, dry summers for Germany. But now, after a series of wet summers, they are telling us we have to expect wet summers in the future.

Nobody knows what to believe anymore. One day they say prepare for this, and the next day they say prepare for that.

Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski here reports on the German DWD Weather Service’s summer review, which highlights the heavy rainfalls and severe thunderstorms that hit Germany. Also the DWD hints at what Germans should expect in the future. Suddenly, earlier warnings and prognoses of hot and dry 2003-like summers have given way to forecasts of wetter summers.

Spiegel’s Bojanowski writes (my emphasis):

Precipitation, like that in July, will increase in frequency as a result of the expected climate change, prophesizes the DWD. Simulations [computer models] had shown that a warmer planet at the end of the century could see 10 to 17 days per year more rainy low pressure systems, reported Vice President of the DWD, Paul Becker, on Monday in Berlin.”

Becker loves the media limelight. Here the DWD has made a 180° turn and is now claiming we should expect rainier and wetter summers – so forget all the earlier forecasts of hot, dry summers.

Earlier computer summer climate forecasts

Just a few years ago all the talk was about hot. dry summers and crop damage.

For example FOCUS magazine here warned in 2009 for the eastern part of Germany, citing the DWD itself:

Summers will become hotter, and less rain will fall. Already the changes are visible as people in Brandenburg experienced last summer an acute danger of forest fires. That this is no exception, rather it is a part of the trend and is shown by other datasets of the German Weather Service (DWD), which confirm that the temperature has risen over the last 30 years  – the DWD has reliable data for this time period.”

Moreover in 2007 FOCUS cited Daniela Jacob of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg: “For example in the eastern part of the country summer will be like at the Mediterranean“. She also claimed major rivers in Germany could sink to extremely low levels during the summers. FOCUS added: “While summers will tend to be more dry, winters will be considerably wetter, according to analyses by the meteorologist.”

The German website www.energie-umwelt quoted daily Ostsee Zeitung, which wrote:

According to the model in summer there will be on average 30% less precipitation, whereby foremost the northeast and southwest of Germany will be hit.”

Germany’s flagship daily the FAZ here l presented a commentary by former Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) scientists Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner, who proclaimed:

Over the summer rainfalls in almost all of Germany have decreased. Our winters are becoming wetter. The new Germany is characterized by dry-hot summers and warm wet winters.”

Also Spiegel featured forecasts of warmer and drier summers, writing in 2009: “Computer simulations have yielded that the Mediterranean climate will spread further and further north due to climate change. […] The uninterrupted sequence of warm summer days and extremely hot days will make ‘everything quite uncomfortable’. Never mind the damage for farmers whose fields will dry up.”

The reality: 10 of the last 11 summers have been wetter than normal, or normal

So how accurate were all these German climate forecasts? 10 of the last 11 summers have been either wetter than normal, or normal. In short, the computer simulations got it all wrong.

Now the DWD wants us to believe that future summers in Germany will become wetter and wetter. They’ve forgotten what weather cycles are! That’s how bad the science of meteorology seems to have gotten at the DWD.

Bojanowski summarizes in his recent article:

Simulations from the Austrian ZAMG Weather Service on the other hand have not shown any increase in so-called Vb weather systems from the southeast for the future – that shows how uncertain the prognoses are.”

In a nutshell: you’re better off consulting a tarot-card fortune-teller for your climate forecasts.

 

Panic Time! IPCC Climate Scientist Serves Up Litany Of Excuses For Warming Stop…Advocates Upward Temp Adjustments!

The online Swiss 20min.ch here reports on a new study just appearing in the latest Nature Geoscience, authored by devout warmist climate scientist Reto Knutti of the Zurich ETH.

Knutti’s study and the 20min.ch article are in a panicked scramble to explain why there hasn’t been any warming in more than 15 years, insisting that global warming has only paused and eventually will resume with renewed vigor – at time yet to be determined time in the future.

The title of the 20min.ch piece is: “Climate Warming Takes a Break“.

The 20min.ch introduction reads:

Climate warming continues, but it’s taking a break. The reasons for that, among others, are the temporary weak solar irradiance and phenomena such as La Niña.”

The tone of the 20min.ch article is one of shaking a finger at the incorrigible, irresponsible and manipulative climate skeptics and advising readers to not stop being afraid and to never ever believe those skeptics.

Litany of excuses

Citing Prof Knutti’s ETH, 20min.ch writes that “multiple possible reasons have been systematically investigated for the first time.”

The all new litany of excuses they present includes:
* aerosols (of course)
* La Niña
* weaker solar radiation
* low sunspot number
* volcano eruptions
* inadequate, unreliable temperature measurement methodology!

That’s right, all the factors that they stupidly refused to adequately incorporate in their models, despite being told time and again by skeptics not to neglect them. Now they are FINALLY telling us there’s indeed a Mai Tai cocktail of natural reasons for the absence of warming.

Antsy warmists

Their panic is truly palpable, at least in Switzerland. Knutti and his fellow warmists are so antsy about rescuing their warming that he is now actively hinting at making up temperature data. The 20min.ch writes that according to Knutti, satellites “do not deliver any data on especially high upward spikes. As a result the average temperature has been under-stated.”

To me that is a clear statement advocating adjusting the data upwards. He talks about the lack of Arctic stations and hints at “filling in” where data do not exist…i.e. making them up. And speaking of the temporary cooling impacts, Knutti insists:

They don’t change anything when it comes to the longer term climate warming due to the greenhouse gas emissions.”

All sounds like a religion desperately clinging to doctrine.

How much longer must we wait?

So just how much longer are we supposed to wait before these “temporary, short-term”  climate factors go away? 2 years? 5 years? 20 years? A couple of generations?

Gradually, but with increasing acceleration, scientists in lots of other fields are beginning to see this type of sorrowful climate science as a monumental laughing stock.

They can adjust upwards and fill in all they want, but it is not going to keep the sea ice from setting new all-time record highs and frosts and snows from blanketing us in the wintertime, or in August. Eventually it’s all going to collapse and the only place global warming will continue existing will be at the nuthouse.

 

2008 Paper Demolished “Forest Die-Off” Scare: “None Of The Apocalyptic Prophecies Of That Time Fulfilled”

If you’re wondering about the long-term future of the climate doomsday scare, what follows is a clue.

A reader brought my attention to a 2008 paper by Horeis that completely demolished the forest die-off scare of the 1980s.

Horeis_Waldsterben
Here’s an excerpt from the abstract shown above (my emphasis), in case it’s difficult to read:

The starting point were local damages to certain tree species which scientists, journalists and politicians eagerly interpreted as a global threat to all forests. Man-made emissions were seen as the cause of the Waldsterben which was expected to thoroughly deforest the country within a few years. However, none of the apocalyptic prophecies of that time fulfilled. Seen in retrospect, Waldsterben spared the trees. It only seized the minds of the people.”

Expect the same in a couple decades time for the current global warming scare…

 

1980s Dire Warnings Of Acid Rain / Forest Die-Off Prove To Be Pure Fallacy From Hysterical Scientists a

I spent a few days with my wife in Amsterdam, and so blogging was a bit on the light side. Today’s story is a short one about acid rain and forest die-off. Most people over 40 will certainly recall that one.

Whenever scientists are completely wrong, they hope no one will notice years later and that all will be forgotten.

Such is the case of the 1970s forest die-off scare (acid rain). Back then a “consensus” of scientists warned that the Earth’s forests were being wasted away because of acidic rain produced by man’s emissions from the burning fossil fuels. Lots of background info on this here,

The first warnings of an acid rain induced forest die-off in Germany were sounded by scientist Bernhard Ulrich, who warned that polluted rain was causing the soil to become too acidic for trees, which in turn would soon get very ill and die. Moreover by 1983 there was a claimed consensus. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) recently wrote on the forest die-off scare:

In the year 1983, an extremely informative study that recently appeared and maintained that during the course of this alarm debate, that there was not a single forest scientist in Germany who did not agree with this diagnosis.”

The leading German daily then summarizes that the acid rain, forest die scare turned up in the end being just a wave of hysteria that had gripped the scientific community. Today nobody hears about the acid rain; the problem has literally just vanished from existence. FAZ writer Jürgen Kaube even asks in his piece: “What ever happened to forest die-off?”

We suspect the same will be true of global warming in about 20 years time. Maybe sooner – especially when we look at the recent record high sea ice levels, recent cooling weather sweeping across the USA and the dozens of predictions of a coming climate cool-down coming from experts.

 

Remember The “Very Early Warning Of Next El Niño” Paper By Ludescher? “False-Alarm Rates Below 0.1″!

Very recently the Australian Meteorological Institute issued a bulletin advising that the chance of an El Niño in 2014 had “clearly eased“. And if one were to occur, it was “increasingly unlikely to be a strong event“.

El Nino NOAA

Like this year’s El Niño itself, reliable prediction method remains elusive as ever. Graphic: NOAA.

This of course all flies in the face of multiple recent warnings of a “super El Niño ” being in the works and set to push global temperatures to a new all-time record highs – all coming from leading institutes and experts. Once again these forecasts are turning out to be completely wrong.

Efficient 12 month forecasting scheme”

That the experts are all wrong should be quite surprising because not long ago a team of scientists led by Josef Ludescher, which included climate pope Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber of the renowned Potsdam Institute, published a paper titled: Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection“, which purported the ability of predicting El Niño events up to one year in advance with high certainty.

The authors announced that they had “developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead“, and claiming they can “develop an efficient 12-mo forecasting scheme” and “achieve some doubling of the early-warning period”.  Moreover they added:

Our method is based on high-quality observational data available since 1950 and yields hit rates above 0.5, whereas false-alarm rates are below 0.1.”

Today we know that the probability of the heavily ballyhooed super El Niño occurring this fall has been evaporating rapidly. What happened? In climate science it often seems that the “0.1 chance” of something not happening in reality occurs 90 percent of the time.

The very same authors followed with another paper earlier this year appearing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences titled: “Very early warning of next El Niño“. The abstract this time stated that already in September 2013 they had been forecasting “the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood”.

At the online Austrian news agency pressetext.at here, lead author Ludescher is even quoted saying:

Compared to the previous approaches, our methods offer very clear advantages: Firstly we reach a very high rate of accuracy and secondly prognoses can be made for a time period of up to one complete year.”

Note how the author had been quite convinced by the new “unique avenue” for predicting El Niño events well in advance.

But now that this year’s projected El Nino is failing to show up, maybe the scientists had indeed been a little too optimistic with their one-year forecast.

Even the 2-month forecasts are failing!

Maybe a forecast a whole year in advance is asking for too much. But surely the new Ludescher method at least should yield much better results for the much shorter 2-month forecast. After all, if it’s 76% accurate one year in advance, it really ought to be 90% or better for a measly 2 months ahead. Here as well it’s turning out that climate scientists are unable to get the El Niño forecast correct for just 2 months in advance, never mind an entire year! At his KlimaLounge blog, for example, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote here in May warning that a powerful El Niño was on the march, and used a graphical animation to “impressively show” the development. Today that “powerful El Niño” also is no longer in any discussion.

So even the 2-month forecasts are unreliable. Scientists are baffled once again.

Also a look back at Real Climate here is worth a read: They wrote that this year’s El Niño had only a “2 in 10 chance” of fizzling.

El Niño to send “world climate off the rails”

Back in May, citing experts at NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center (CDC) and the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society, German online Die Welt here wrote: “The world climate could go off the rails over the coming months” and that the probability of an El Niño occurring in fall and winter were 80%.

To his credit, Die Welt journalist Joachim Müller-Jung added that we’ve heard such predictions before:

Also in 2012 they calculated that there was a more than 70 percent chance an El Niño would occur. The anomaly fizzled with hardly a murmur or fanfare.”

Again, in climate science the improbable has a way of occurring far more more often than not. Many scientists are merely shooting in the dark. Clearly there is still a lot they still do not understand at all about the climate.