Former Swiss Minister: Okay To Lie About Climate “If It Is For The Good” …And Germany’s “Heat Wave” Over After Just 4 – 5 Days

Two small stories today.

The first is the “heat wave” that has gripped Europe over the past few days. Europe saw weather patterns that were optimum for producing record heat in Germany and other countries. In Germany although a number of cities set new all-time highs, the country’s record high of 40.2°C set during the heat wave of 2003 did not fall.

UPDATE: Spiegel reports that Germany did see a new all-time high yesterday: http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/kitzingen-hitzerekord-in-deutschland-mit-40-3-grad-a-1042198.html

T-online.de here reports that yesterday’s German high was 39.4°C, recorded in Saxony Anhalt, and much to the disappointment of the media and alarmist scientists, who lately have been in the habit of seizing upon any data anecdote as a sign of global warming.

Though many records were set, the heat wave was as short as it was intense, lasting only a few days. For example at a station close to where I live, the temperature rose above 30°C only on three days. The so-called “tropical night” where temperatures don’t fall below 20°C occurred only once here.

Global warming alarmists in Germany have warned that in the future cities such as Hamburg would have to expect more stifling, long-lasting heat waves in the future, with tropical nights become increasingly common. But looking at Hamburg’s temperatures over the past days also shows that the “heat wave” involved only 2 days above 30°C, and not a single tropical night. hardly a heat wave.

Today a cold front with showers and thunderstorms has been sweeping across northwestern Germany, bringing an end to the heat after a mere 4 days. The cold front is expected to continue its sweep across the rest of Germany over the next day, and so end the heat wave there too.

Some locations of course will see the heat linger a little longer, seeing 5 or 6 days above 30°C, but is only a local phenomenon. Overall this heat wave was just a mere midget compared to the 2003 heat wave. And it was certainly nothing compared to what Europe saw back in 1540.

Lying okay if it is for the good

The other short story today comes from the Die kalte Sonne site here, which writes about a former Swiss Minister,  Moritz Leuenberger. The Swiss Tagblatt writes:

“‘The climate conference in Copenhagen just before agreeing to reduce CO2 emissions was disastrous,’ Leuenberger now admits. Yet back then he intentionally did not tell the media this, and thus lied so that the Swiss would vote in favor of it. Leuenberger: ‘Now I believe the lie is legitimate if it is for the good.'”

DWD German Weather Service Says UHI Effect As Much As 10°C! …Judith Curry Puts Heat Waves On Ice

Germany’s and Europe’s first real heat wave (more than 3 days long) of the summer has pushed temperatures well above the 30°C. A so-called omega high pressure system centered over Eastern Europe is pumping hot air from the Mediterranean and Africa up across much of Europe.

Europe temp 07 04 2015Source: wetterdienst.de

Not about to pass up any opportunity to exploit single weather events for the global warming cause, the online SVZ here cites the DWD German Weather Service, which warns that climate change will further exacerbate summer heat waves in cities, especially because of all the concrete, steel and asphalt that act as heat storage sinks that in turn serve to slow down nighttime cooling and absorb more heat in the daytime on hot days.

The DWD advises cities to find ways to incorporate more green vegetation to help offset the growing urban heat island effect brought on by climate change, the SVZ writes.

Can boost temperatures by 10°C!

What’s interesting here is that in the article the DWD also confirms that the urban heat island effect is real and profound, claiming that it can boost temperatures in cities “by up to 10°C”. The SVZ.de cites DWD Vice President Paul Becker, writing:

Temperatures in the city as a result could be up to 10°C higher than in the surrounding rural areas where we find bodies of water and vegetation.”

So what should this tell us about readings taken from the many weather stations located near airports and cities? Of course they have been generating exaggerated results for years. And worse, the adjustments made to the temperature record over the past years are dubious at best, especially when rural stations of the past are corrected downward and recent urban data corrected upwards.

Data supporting more heat waves weak at best

On the subject of heat waves and their frequency, also read Judith Curry’s latest here.

By the way, Western Europe being on track for a record heat wave, like the media are claiming, is a bit of hyperbole. In Germany, the heat wave is scheduled to be over already over by Tuesday, making the heat wave about a whole 5 days long. That pales compared to the heat wave of 2003.

Naturally the alarmist Potsdam Institute here (also unable to pass up the chance to exploit the hot weather) is sure that heat waves are getting more frequent and intense because of global warming. But then again, the Potsdam Institute also claims that global warming is causing more wintertime cold waves. So you be the judge on whether or not they can be taken seriously.

Europe Weather: “Thing Of The Past” Now A Thing Of Summer …Snow At 1500 Meters In Southern Germany

Two days ago I wrote about the cold weather that’s been gripping Germany and Central Europe. Well, things are about to get worse early this weekend, and not better.

The online Munich-based Abendzeiting (Evening News) here reports the latest weather forecast of frost and snow that are set to hit Germany – in June…on the first day of summer!

Snow in Bavaria down to 1500 meters

The online news site writes that this year “summer is starting out wet and cold: Ground frost in the north, snow in the Alps“.

Though snow is not an unusual event in the Alps at higher elevations above 2500 meters, it is unusual when it happens at just 1500 meters in the summertime. The Abendzeitung writes:

Things don’t look better down south. In the Bavarian Alps the snowfall level will drop to 1500 to 1800 meters. On Zugspitze up to 50 centimeters of snow will fall.”

This morning my wife even turned the furnace back on, as many other homes have done in Germany over the past days. “It’s too friggin cold,” she told me.

Climate forecasts of scorching hot Europe summers refuted

In the early 2000s climate scientists predicted Europe would have to get used to scorching hot and parched summers, similar to that seen in 2003. However, more than 10 years later, summers have been cooler and wetter than normal, thus so far defying the climate scientists’ predictions.

And this summer does not appear to be anything different. The Abendzeitung quotes meteorologist Dominik Jung of wetter.net:

I don’t believe we are going to experience an extremely hot July or August. The run-up to the summer this year has been similar to 2013 and 2014. In both of those years the spring was like in 2015: stable, dry and very sunny. In both years variable and only moderately warm summers followed. I anticipate the same for this year.”

The coming cold is just the latest in an extended string of well below normal temperatures. Last week northern Germany saw 5 consecutive mornings with ground surface frost, a “very unusual” event, Jung reported earlier.

Scientists got the science all wrong

Naturally the recent unusual cold weather has nothing to do with a climate trend; it is just weather – something the global warming alarmists like to forget when hot weather hits. Still, it is important to remind them that they once told us such cold events were “a thing of the past”, that children would never know them and that instead we needed to prepare for hot scorcher periods.

Surprise! The cold events have been becoming more frequent in Germany over the past quarter century, thus bluntly refuting the models. The climate scientists need to admit that they got the science on this all wrong.

“Very Unusual” Mid-June Cold Surprises Germany…Surface Temperatures Around Hamburg Fall To -3°C!

The year started out on the mild side in Central Europe, but since early May temperatures have been stubbornly on the low side.

“Rarity”: 5 consecutive June days of surface frost

Over northern Germany, for example, the last 10 or so days have been gripped by cold weather. The online Sudkürier here cites meteorologist Dominik Jung, writing how last week there was “a very unusual phenomenon: five days in a row in North Germany there was surface frost. That according to Jung is a rarity for June.”

Ground surface frost is already rare enough over the northern German lowlands in May, let alone June!

In Germany farmers and weather hobbyists often talk of these annual June cold spells, calling them Schafskälte – or “sheep cold”. They often occur in mid June when cold polar air grips the country.

“Record suspect low”

But this year the phenomenon appears to be especially pronounced.

Jung_6_2ß15

German meteorologist Dominik Jung explains what’s behind this year’s “very unusual” June cold spell. Image cropped from: https://www.youtube.com/

Not only last week was cold, but so is this week. In today’s wetter.net  forecast video, Jung tells viewers how this morning: “…around Hamburg ground-surface temperatures fell to -3°C. Yes, for this time of the year this is a record-suspect low.”

In the video the commercial meteorologist also says that after today’s milder temperatures the “grizzly summer weather” shows no signs of letting up. Daytime temperatures are forecast to stubbornly remain stuck in the 50s and 60s (14 – 20°C) over the rest of the week.

“Numerous days with ground level frost”

The online sachsen-fernsehen (Saxony television) writes that not only was the Hamburg region hit, but the cold was widespread across northern Germany:

“In Lübeck and Hannover, just above the ground readings of down to -2°C were taken. Even in Berlin early this morning the thermometer showed ground level frost with readings around 0°C.

Precisely at Germany’s number 1 beaches, the North and Baltic seas, June has been quite fresh so far. The month’s half in the north has been about 1°C colder than the longterm mean. And with the numerous days with ground level frost that June has seen so far, it’s hardly a wonder.”

Drought also taking hold…

Moreover, large parts of northern Germany are being gripped by a deepening drought. Here as well no significant amounts of rainfall are in sight.

The latest buzz is that Germans should not be expecting any type of “barbecue summer” this year.

No April Fool’s Prank! Parts Of Europe Wake Up To Snow! Minus 40°C At 5000 Meters Elevation! Snow For Easter

There’s no doubt Europe’s 2014/15 winter was a mild one, which was welcome as the continent had reeled from a string of 5 consecutive colder than normal winters in a row, from 2008 to 2013.

Unfortunately we cannot say the same for spring this year, at least so far. A blast of cold air is now gripping much of the continent and people in many areas this morning are waking up to snow (see here).

This is no April Fool’s prank

Worse, the cold snap is expected to continue through Easter. This morning the online Pforzheimer Zeitung (Pforzheim Newspaper) writes that Good Friday will see “snowfall down to the flatlands” as cold polar air refrigerates Europe. “At 5 kilometers elevation in the atmosphere, -40°C will prevail…”. (Obviously the extra CO2 won’t be trapping a whole lot of heat up there.)

At Twitter Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann this morning reminded followers and mocked how just two weeks ago a number of weather experts had predicted a warm spring for March, April, May”. Kachelmann is a noted harsh skeptic on long-term seasonal forecasts, claiming they are hardly worth the paper they are printed on.

On the other hand Joe Bastardi in an earlier Saturday Summary predicted weeks ago that cold would grip Europe at the end of March, early April. Dead on!

German WDR public broadcasting this morning reported “numerous car accidents” due to “snow and ice” on streets and motorways in the state of North Rhine Westphalia. The Schwäbische.de here reports of snowfall causing problems in Bavaria, southern Germany. The online Stuttgarter Nachrichten writes that the month of April has started with snow for Germany’s southwestern state of Baden Wurttemberg.

Wetter.de has posted an animation of the air flow across Europe over the next five days. A large high off the coast in the Atlantic in combination with a powerful low over eastern Scandinavia will be pumping masses of polar air through Europe. By Sunday, one sees that a white Easter is a real possibility – an event that rarely occurs in Central Europe. German DWD Weather Service forecasts snow at higher elevations over Easter, with nighttime temperatures falling to as low as -4°C, reports web.de.

The snow and cold fly in the face of global warming alarmists predictions of springtime arriving earlier and earlier. Climate alarmist Potsdam Institute scientist Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe told German ZDF television two years ago that spring would be arriving earlier and earlier – because of global warming.

Of course the cold is due to the prevailing weather patterns, just as was the case for the mild winter. It has nothing to do with climate change, as global warming alarmists often would have us believe.

If This Cold Is Warming, Then ISIS Is Peace … USA’s Stunning Shock-Freeze Contradicts NOAA Warmth Claims

Not only last winter was a brutal one for the USA, which saw the Great Lakes freeze over, this year is also turning out to be an epic one as record cold temperatures continue their unrelenting grip across the nation and massive snowfalls bury large regions across the east.

The UPI’s Fred Lambert recently wrote the bitter cold extends all the way to Siberia and had killed dozens across the US. Lambert writes:

According to the Weather Channel, the cold air mass now seizing the country stretches as far west as Russia, moving down through Canada and into the United States in what some meteorologists call the “Siberian Express.”

New all time records

The UK’s Mail online here reports that New York City’s 1°F reading set yesterday broke it’s 65-year old all-time cold record temperature. In Minnesota the mercury plummeted to -41°F. The Mail continues:

The temperature in Boston is below freezing, as the city is set to break the record of 16 days below 32F set in 1961.

In Florida, strawberry and orange crops have frozen over because of the harsh winter weather.”

The online English daily presents a spectacular series of winter photos. Even Niagara Falls has frozen over!

Unexpected freeze

As of Wednesday, over 85% of the Great Lakes was frozen over with experts predicting 100% ice cover in perhaps just a matter of a few more days. The USA Today here quotes George Leshkevich of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory:

Nobody expected 2014 to be as bad as it was, almost record breaking for ice cover and this year it’s the same thing with these very cold temperatures.”

“Historical ice cover record”

This morning mlive.com here shows images of Lake Huron, which it writes: “Lake Huron is almost entirely covered in ice. It is only 2.7 percent away from its historical ice-cover record.”

All this in the “6th warmest winter”?

Strangely, despite all the record freezing, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) claims that it has been the sixth-warmest winter on record. NCDC officials may want to go back and check their thermometers, as these claims are looking a lot like “padded room” quality.

If this cold and ice are warming, then ISIS is peace.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi explains the breathtaking, acrobatic tricks the NOAA used to produce the reality-disconnected result (see 1:30 mark).

Next cold blast to arrive next week

Dr. Ryan Maue at Twitter tells us that the cold wave is not yet done:

Maue Twitter

Note Maue warns of more records to possibly come. Obviously the US weather never got the message that it is supposed to be the 6th warmest on record.

 

“The New England Glacier”! Dr. Ryan Maue: “Arctic Cold On Lockdown…Brutal”. Global Warming Gets Obliterated! Great Lakes “100% Frozen Over Next Week”!

If you google “warmer winters”, you’ll find plenty of articles that contain statements like the following:

But scientists say the milder winters also are consistent with global warming caused by the massive buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to human activities such as burning oil and coal. The carbon dioxide acts like a greenhouse roof, trapping heat on the Earth’s surface.”

And there are also plenty of articles from earlier on claiming that cold winters with lots of snow would become rare in the future, all in line of course with scientists expected from global warming.

But suddenly the exact opposite is happening, and it is deeply embarrassing the climate experts. The USA is now being gripped by widespread and especially severe cold and snow.

Switzerland’s Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) reports today:

After the heavy snowfalls of the last couple days, the American east coast is expecting a cold front with record minus temperatures.”

Germany’s national DW public radio recently reported, “USA: The Winter Just Doesn’t Want To End” and on how people on the east coast “aren’t getting any breaks” from the bitter cold and snow.

DW describes how transportation is being severely hampered and federal workers in Washington D.C. are staying home because of the weather: The DW adds:

Also Boston continues to ail from the harsh winter. After the heavy snowstorms and temperatures down to minus 23° Celsius during last weekend, the National Weather Service forecast more snow ahead for Tuesday and Wednesday. Already the current February is already the snowiest in the history of the east coast city.”

Ryan Maue: “The New England Glacier”

So when can Americans along the east coast start dreaming about a pause in winter and the promises of cherry blossoms? According to Dr. Ryan Maue at Twitter, not for awhile. The expert meteorologist provides a temperature anomaly chart from the ECMWF for the end of February:

Maue Twitter

Chart source: ECMWF

From the charts Maue sees a possible additional 1 to 2 feet of snow, and he is already describing the massive snow over Boston as “the New England Glacier”. He tweets: “Arctic cold on lockdown … brutal“!

100% frozen over – next week!

By next week Maue foresees about a quarter billion people in North America “at/below freezing conditions” (including Canada).

Another indication of the winter’s severity is the ice cover over the Great Lakes. Maue tweets here:

Just obscene & no stopping it … Great Lakes are going to be 90-95% then 100% froze over … Next week.”

Joe Bastardi Schools Dr. Michael Mann On How To Read A Weather Chart … Heavy Snow “Is Because It’s Cold”

The Northeast USA is being socked by frightful cold and massive snow. The brutal New England winters are back and now we are witnessing last ditch efforts by disgraced climate scientists to blame the brutally cold winters on a warming planet (which in reality has not warmed in 18 years).

At his latest Saturday Summary at WeatherBell Analytics, chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi delivers a stinging critique of Michael Mann’s recent claims: “Sea surface temperatures off the coast of New England right now are at record levels, 11.5C (21F) warmer than normal in some locations.” Mann also claimed there’s two times more moisture in this warm air, and thus is responsible for the turbocharged snowy icebox winter Boston has been experiencing.

At his Saturday Summary Joe thoroughly demolishes these claims.

Falsehood 1: It’s 11.5°C warmer than normal “off Cape Cod”

Joe calls Mann’s assertions a mistake, and shows that the area of warm sea surface water “off the coast of Cape Cod” is in fact way off the coast. At the 2:25 mark Joe shows how the waters along the eastern seaboard “are close to normal” and that a small patch of 3°C above normal water is some 1000 kilometers off the coast, and that a larger patch of 5°C above normal water is in fact 2000 kilometers off the coast (see following figure):

SatSum 14 Feb 2015

Dr. Mann’s warm water is in fact 2000 kilometers “off the coast”. Cropped from WeatherBELL.

Joe tells his viewers, and Dr. Mann, at the 3.00 mark:

There’s no way that that moisture is getting fed back into New England.”

Climatologists need to learn how to read a weather chart

So why would a climatologist like Mann make such an absurd claim? Joe tells us that a climatologist making a statement does not understand how the weather works, and advises them to first learn how to read a weather chart (2:15) before making such statements.

Falsehood 2: Heavy snow due to warm sea surfaces

The real reason it snowed so much over New England, Joe explains, is because of the “tremendous horizontal temperature gradient” in the area where extremely cold Arctic air clashes with normal temperature maritime air (3:30). It’s the cold, stupid!

At 5:27 Joe explains:

Where this storm was embedded, it’s cooler. You cannot use the argument that we use for warm eddies, and hurricanes where we see some blow up over the warm eddy. You can’t use that with these.”

Falsehood 3: Two times higher water vapor in the air

At the 5:45 mark the veteran Penn State graduate meteorologist shows the water vapor situation in the region where the storm developed:

During this time of the snow blitz over New England, the mixing ratios, which is the water vapor, is below normal! It’s below normal! It’s not above normal! In the area that we’re targeting, this period that we’re looking at, that had all this snow, is below normal.”

Snow (surprise!) is due to cold

The reason why water vapor is so low is “because it’s so darn cold”. The heavy snowfalls are related to the extreme cold, and not the unrelated warm patch 2000 kilometers “off Cape Cod” (6:10).

At the 7:47 mark Joe summarizes on warmist climatolgists’ claims:

If they’d looked at this, they would have seen how bogus their argument is. There is nothing above normal in that area. What happened was that it was so darn cold that it creates a very strong horizontal temperature gradient. […] It’s not because it’s so much warmer and humid off the eastern seaboard; it’s the exact opposite reason in this particular case. […] It’s because it’s cold.”

At the 9:30 mark Joe shows a chart of the AMO which that he says “has major implications“. The AMO has dipped sharply downwards, and although the current PDO is warm, it will turn colder within a couple of years. Implication: don’t expect global warming anytime soon.

Also Joe explains how cold winters across the United States are predominantly dependent on the ENSO. In years of El Nino spikes, US winters do greatly tend to be colder.

In summary this year’s brutal New England winter has nothing to do with the bogus, made-up explanations being served up by climatologists who are desperate to salvage their disgraced science.

 

The Frigid Winters Of Global Warming: “Uncompromising Cold” … “Conditions That May Be Recalled For Generations”

How often have we heard the older folks reminiscing about good old fashioned New England winters we used to get 50 years ago? Well, they’re back.

Ironically today’s winters are in fact so tough that journalist Jason Samenow of the online Washington Post here predicts that we may remember the current one “for generations“.

A “severe cold” is set to blast the eastern U.S. later in the week. And bitter cold is projected to persist well into March.

The WaPo writes that “parts of New England could witness its coldest air in years” and that frosty conditions will dip “into central and parts of south Florida“.

According to the WaPo, the cold “can be traced to the polar vortex” coming from the North Pole regions, and that the winter will likely leave a deep imprint in our minds:

For areas of New England buried under multiple feet of snow, the added element of uncompromising cold will present extreme mid-winter conditions that may be recalled for generations.

Cold plunging from the North Pole deep into the middle latitudes normally means the polar air gets replaced, usually by warmer air from the south. Yet Arctic regions are also seeing polar vortex-like cold effects, with places in Alaska dipping close to -60°F, writes the WaPo.

The cold that is to grip the US east coast is set to come in two waves. The second wave will originate in Siberia, says the WaPo, and temperatures will be at levels that are 30°F below normal along the entire east coast of the US, with bitter cold literally effecting more than 100 million people.

Source: Weatherbell Analytics

Scientists are baffled by the recent severe cold winters that have struck North America. Ten years ago, when North America saw balmy winters, scientists were trumpeting cold and snowy winters as those of the 1960s and 70s, were “a thing of the past“. Now these old fashioned winters are back from the photo albums and the same red-faced scientists are now claiming these are global-warming frigid winters.

The truth and reality are that this has nothing to do with global warming, but has everything to do with natural cycles…the very ones that have sent global warming packing for 18 years.

Scientists have yet to explain how one distinguishes between a global-warming frigid winter and one that is an old fashioned cold one. Both are the same and arecaused by the same thing: predominant pattern of Arctic air dipping far south for the greater part of the winter season.

 

Meteorologist Calls Forecast Of A “Majorca Winter” For Europe “Stupidity”…Winter, Snow And Cold Grip Continent

Earlier this year as the late autumn ran mild and the winter started well on the mild side  for Central Europe, meteorologists were projecting a “Majorca Winter”, after the tropical-like Spanish Island which is noted for its sunny and warm year-round weather. A sort of “barbeque winter” was all the talk.

But recently winter has tightened its grip over the continent, with snow and cold taking hold. Today Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann released his latest Youtube video calling that forecast nonsense.

Once again snow and winter refuse being relegated to a “thing of the past”.

The flamboyant Kachelmann, who is notoriously critical of seasonal forecasts, tells viewers the source of the current winter weather is a stubborn low centered over North central Europe that is pumping cold, unsettled air from the North Sea down over the mainland. Kachelmann sees the pattern sticking around for minimum 7 to 10 days, possibly longer.

Once you get away from the North Sea it really is winter everywhere and it’s going to stay that way for the next several days, with below normal temperatures; a longer winter phase – and so it was clear from the start with this nonsense of a Majorca winter with only very brief periods of cold and snow and so on; it was all stupidity – there’s going to be more snow…”

The NCEP forecast until mid February sees more of the same:

Europe Feb 7 - 15 2015Winter extending to Spain. Image cropped here.

The above longer term forecast may change, of course. However the weather models runs have been pretty coming up with the same result for that last couple of days, and so don’t start dreaming of spring weather just yet.

Now is as a good a time as any to book a ski holiday in the mountains.

 

Alice Springs Automatic Weather Station Inflated Temperature By 4.5°C, Producing False “Record High”!

Not only has siting of weather stations near urban heat sources have been a real issue for weather measurement stations worldwide, but so maybe has the recently implemented automatic electronic weather measurement instrumentation.

Reports are appearing that the new automatic system may be producing exaggerated temperature readings. For example this may be the case in Germany: read here and here.

Now we find another example, this one coming from the Alice Springs, Australia station.

According to the Australian ABC news site, the new electronic thermometer measured a scorching 46°C (an all time high) last Tuesday. However an adjacent mercury thermometer showed only 41.5°C, i.e. a huge 4.5°C less! It turns out that the 46°C reading was a “spike” that lasted only a minute before disappearing.

As a consequence, the ABC writes, the “Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has withdrawn its advice Alice Springs recorded its hottest day on Tuesday, blaming a faulty thermometer for an incorrect temperature reading.

The old record of 45.2°C was set 55 years ago, in 1960. The ABC quotes climatologist Joel Lisonbee:

It looks like we had an instrument fault with our automatic weather station at the Alice Springs Airport. […] We have some mercury and glass thermometers that did not show that spike to 46C. […]

They showed the maximum temperature yesterday to be only 41.5C.”

According to the ABC, the station is located right next to a “scorching” airport tarmac. So how could the new automatic thermometer produce such a faulty reading?

It seems that these new automatic systems are highly sensitive. As reported here at NTZ, one German weather instrumentation expert conducted an 8.5 year side-by-side comparison test of the new automatic electronic temperature measurement system and the former mercury glass thermometer. That test showed that the new automatic thermometers produced a mean temperature for the period that was a whopping 0.9°C warmer than the mercury thermometer. That result could possibly in part explain why Germany’s annual mean temperature jumped by a similar amount from 1985 to 2000, i.e. the period that Germany transitioned over to automatic measurement.

The Alice Springs inflated reading is an indication that the new measurement system indeed may be overstating temperature readings all over the world, thus adding uncertainties on top of those created by the urban heat island effect.

With the Alice Springs Station, the error was caught and the “record high” was withdrawn. Yet the question remains if this is the case all over the world. How many recent records are in fact not records at all, but rather are merely faulty readings produced from instrumentation and siting issues?

 

Germany’s Warming Happens To Coincide With Late 20th Century Implementation Of Digital Measurement

The last couple of days I posted on an 8.5 year side-by-side test conducted by German veteran meteorologist Klaus Hager, see here and here. The test compared traditional glass mercury thermometer measurement stations to the new electronic measurement system, whose implementation began at Germany’s approximately 2000 surface stations in 1985 and concluded around 2000.

Hager’s test results showed that on average the new electronic measurement system produced warmer temperature readings: a whopping mean of 0.93°C warmer. The question is: Is this detectable in Germany’s temperature dataset? Do we see a temperature jump during the time the new “warmer” system was put into operation (1985 – 2000)? The answer is: absolutely!

1900 to 1985: almost no warming

Josef Kowatsch, an independent scientist and regular contributor at EIKE, has looked at the German temperature dataset and discovers that Germany’s mean temperature indeed coincidentally jumped by a similar 0.9°C during the same period. First he sent me a chart depicting Germany’s annual mean temperature from 1900 to 1985, measured using the old glass mercury thermometers:

Kowatsch_1

For 85 years the trend was pretty much consistent, hovering at about 8.2 or 8.3°C. As indicated by the bold black line, there was an increase from 1900 to 1935, followed by a slight decrease from 1935 to 1985, i.e. in a time when CO2 emissions were rising strongly worldwide.

1986 – 2000: massive warming

Next Josef sent me a second chart depicting Germany’s mean temperature trend while the country was transitioning over to the new electronic measuring system, described here, from 1986 to 2000:

Kowatsch_2

Here we see the trend for the period rising strongly, from about 8.4°C to 9.3°C, i.e. precisely during the instrumentation transition period! This too happens to be a rise of 0.9°C, which coincides precisely with the results of the side-by-side temperature measurement test Hager conducted over 8.5 years comparing mercury thermometers to electronic ones. That could be a sheer coincidence, but on the other hand it is screaming to be investigated.

2000 to present: no warming

Next Kowatsch provided a chart showing Germany’s mean annual temperature for period 0f 2000 to present, i.e. the period that has been using the new electronic measurement system:

Kowatsch_3

Here we see there is no longer any rising trend, but that the mean temperature is at a new, higher plateau. As a result, almost the entire mean annual temperature rise Germany has seen since 1900 occurred during the single short 1986-2000 period. Josef Kowatsch commented (by e-mail):

In these 15 years, did CO2’s greenhouse gas effect suddenly go into action? Who switched on the CO2 greenhouse gas effect for these 15 years?”

Moreover, didn’t Germany’s national DWD Weather Service check and calibrate the new electronic system to be sure it would produce results similar to the earlier used mercury thermometers and thus ensure the recording of reliable data? Hager says they never did, and it seems they were quite content to adopt the warmer readings.

The following chart is a plot of Germany’s mean annual temperature over the entire 1900 to present period:

Kowatsch_4

Chart adapted from here.

To me this all appears to have all the elements of an epic instrumentation debacle that is as bad and sloppy as any could get. Again, I repeat: Hager writes that the DWD never conducted any systematic comparison tests in order to be sure the new electronic ones were producing reliable daily data.

If this is really the case, then we can be happy that the DWD is not in the business of calibrating altimetry systems for commercial jets.

Of course the 1986 – 2000 rise likely is not solely an artifact of poor instrumentation calibration, as part of the warming is surely due to the natural ocean cycles which pushed global temperatures up during the end of the 20th century. However, the results of Hager’s comparison test are difficult to ignore and raise lots of questions.

 

Weather Instrumentation Debacle? Analysis Shows 0.9°C Of Germany’s Warming May Be Due To Transition To Electronic Measurement

Yesterday I wrote a post about how a 44-year veteran German meteorologist poured cold water on the hypothesis of a man-made global warming and pointed out that a change in temperature instrumentation is probably behind much of the reported warming that Germany has supposedly since the 1980s.

Klaus Hager also has a website. At this website he posted a meteorological bulletin, which he authored and was published as an annex to the Berliner Wetterkarte (Berlin Weather Chart).

That bulletin was about the results of his eight and a half year study where he compared in a side-by-side test the former glass mercury thermometers with the newer electronic thermometers, which were installed during the 1980s and 1990s by Germany’s DWD German Weather Service.

Earlier mercury thermometer method

Earlier temperature measurement was done using a mercury/alcohol glass thermometer, where readings were taken ten minutes before each hour. The daily mean temperature was computed using the “Mannheimer” hourly values 07h, 14h, and 2 times 21h, all divided by 4. The DWD used this formula until March 31, 2001. The extreme temperatures were read at the glass thermometer at 7 a.m. as the low, and 9 p.m. for the maximum. Temperature was measured inside an “English” weather hut.

New electronic system

The new electronic system, however, employs a completely different sensor technology, known as the Pt 100, where temperature is measured with two measurement sensors that check each other. Each second a value is generated and measured for an entire minute, i.e. minute mean. The daily mean temperature is calculated from 24 values, each at 10 minutes before the hour (e.g. at 8:50 for 9 a.m.) The extreme is calculated from the minute mean values between 00 h and 24h. Today they are recorded inside a plastic hut with slats (at first made of aluminum).

The advantages and disadvantages are listed in the annex below.

Hager writes that although electronic sensors and the comprehensive IT networking implemented by the German DWD Weather Service do offer many advantages, there are also a number of disadvantages which he says are of importance with respect to assessing climate change, especially when comparing old datasets from the mercury thermometers to the new datasets recorded by the electronic sensor technology. He writes that it’s close to comparing “an apple and an orange”.

Results of 8.5 year side-by-side test

Hager compared the two different measurement systems side by side at the GeiInfoAdvisory Office of Fliegerhorst Lechfeld from January 1, 1999 to Jul 31, 2007. The following is a plot of the differences between the two measurement methods:

Hager_1

Figure 1: Differences in the daily maximum temperatures from the Pt 100 compared to glass thermometers for 3124 days (ca. 8.5 years) conducted at the GeiInfoAdvisory Office of Fliegerhorst Lechfeld (from 4) – mean difference 0.93°C.  Figure from Rengelink, 2012)

Clearly the electronic thermometers produced warmer readings than the mercury thermometers.

Worse, Hager says, the German DWD Weather Service did not adequately investigate the two different measuring systems and compare them, writing that:

Although the DWD set up so-called climate reference stations at (way to few) locations and published the studies from the comparison measurements, the results unfortunately were not satisfactory. Here not the “old data was compared to the new data”, instead only the electronic thermometer was investigated in various locations, but were not compared with the glass thermometers, which are readily at hand.”

Hager provides an example illustrating why one must be very wary when comparing data from the new electronic instrumentation to data taken from the old mercury thermometers. The following chart depicts an example comparison for the temperature measured using the two different methods on a single day, 12 November 2005:

Hager_2

Figure 2: Pt 100 measurements taken on 12 November 2005 at Fliegerhorst Lechfeld (WMO 10856) station. Red curve (upper) is the measurement sensor of the aluminum enclosure, showing daily mean temperature of 5.9°C. Blue curve (lower) is the Stevenson screen, showing daily mean temperature of only 5.2°C.

Hager writes:

Differing daily measured values from the old and new sensors for temperature measurement spurred the author [Hager] to conduct a comparison spanning from January 1, 1999 to July 31, 2006 at Fliegerhorst Lechfeld (WMO 10856) 8-1/2 years long, daily without interruption, among other comparison tests of mercury maximum glass thermometers in a Stevenson screen and a Pt 100 resistance thermometer inside an aluminum enclosure, both unventilated. The 3144 days yielded a mean difference of +0.93°C; the Pt 100 was higher than the mercury thermometer. The maximum daily difference even reached 6.4°C!

You can see the maximum difference in Figure 1, occurring in early 2006.

Hager also writes that the difference was between 0 – 1°C on 41% of the days, 1 – 3°C on 26% of the days, and over 2°C on 15% of the days [Here we assume that Hager made a typographical error and meant “1 – 2°C”]. Only on 15% of the days did mercury thermometers show higher mean temperatures.

Hager attributes the wide range of differences on factors such as cloudiness, sunshine duration, wind speed and air mass changes. The results, Hager writes, show that:

Earlier measured values cannot be compared to the values measured today for longer term temperature datasets without having interruptions in the overall dataset.”

Not only is the temperature sensing method very different than it was before, Hager writes that also the method for determining the daily mean temperature is different and thus another source of discrepancy. Earlier the “Manheimer” hours (7h +14h + 2 times 21h divided by 4 was used. Today the daily mean is comprised of 24 hourly values from 00 h to 23 h divided by 24.  “This too falsifies the quality of the recorded values,” writes Hager.

Hager concludes:

This all should give the current science something to think about, because actual practice tells us that there is a necessary rethinking when it comes to the theoretical and numerical approaches used for assessing the swings in climate.”

Annex:
Advantages/disadvantages of electronic measurement

Advantages:
– Considerable personnel costs savings due to elimination of visual readings.
– Possible densification of the measurement network through new sensor locations.
– Up-to-date and immediate availability of measured values.
– Extending the spectrum of measurements, e.g. radiation measurement.
– At times high measurement accuracy due to minimal sensor inertia.

Disadvantages
– Lack of comparability between the old measurements and those of the new sensors.
– Thermometer: formerly glass thermometer, today Pt 100 sensor.
– Precipitation measurement unit: formerly Hellmann pan, today with the teetering unit or the new weight measurement of precipitation.
– Humidity: formerly using the hair hygrometer, today it is the dew-point sensor or capacitive sensor.
– Wind speed: formerly using the cup anemometer, today with an ultrasound unit.
– Snow depth measurement: formerly measured by hand, today with laser or ultrasound device.
– Precipitation type and weather appearance of snow, rain, hail, and cloud observation are done by visual observation.
– Increased maintenance requirements for the sensors done by a maintenance center.
– Sensor downtime of various types with disruptions in the climate dataset.
– Onset of measurement techniques through other evaluations of daily means, see: Temperature Measurement at the DWD “Formerly and Today”.

 

“Winter With An Exclamation Mark”! Meteorologists Warn Of Blizzard Conditions, 30°C Temperature Plunge In Europe!

So far it’s been a very mild winter across Central Europe. Just days ago, with temperatures in the double-digit Celsius range, meteorologists and media wrote off the possibility of a white Christmas. Gradually all the snow being a “thing of the past” talk was starting up.

Wrong again. So unpredictable can chaotic systems like weather and climate be.

Europetemps_28Dec2014

Sunday morning outlook. Chart cropped from wetteronline.de.

Suddenly the picture has reversed 180°.

Blizzard conditions forecast

Now Central Europeans are being told to brace for blizzard conditions, forecast to arrive this weekend.

Wetter.net here reports that on Europe’s 2nd Christmas Day (December 26) snow will spread from the Alps and across southern Germany, and make its way through the east with temperatures dropping into the minus zones. By Saturday night readings will drop to as low as -6°C and snow will spread over the northwestern flatlands to the North Sea coast.

30°C temperature drop

Wetter.net writes that significant snowfall is expected for Saturday with a thick blanket over many regions. “Winter will be setting an exclamation mark!” Wetter.net warns of blowing and “massive drifting snow” and of chaotic traffic conditions. Temperatures will plummet to as low as -11°C, thanks to a low positioned over Italy pumping cold air from the East. By Tuesday, according to wetter.net, readings will fall to as low as -18°C in East Germany, some 30°C below values measured just days ago.

In Fulda the temperature may drop to as low as -20°C on New Year’s Eve.

How long will the cold linger? Forecasts are showing it to persist into early January. This year the North Atlantic has been especially tempestuous and forecasts have been difficult to pinpoint more than 3 days out.

Long-range forecasts by the NCEP have been pointing to normal winter conditions for the January to March period. But judging by what Central Europe has seen so far, everything from spring-like to Arctic conditions are likely this winter. Once again, the North Atlantic dominates Europe’s weather.

 

European Winters Getting Colder…Model Runs Pointing To A Frosty New Year’s Start

Update: Latest model run now shows less cold after New Year’s day…so fast can the weather in the future change!
================================

Much of Europe has been enjoying a mild fall, and early winter thus far as a long series of Atlantic lows laden with warm, Atlantic air masses have been sweeping regularly across the continent.

For winter sports enthusiasts this has not been good news. But for people on a tight budget, the reduced heating bills and low heating oil prices are very welcome news.

Cold returning after Christmas

But the warm weather pattern is about to be interrupted, and now is certainly no time to be putting the winter coats and snow shovels away.

Over the last few days, the weather model runs have been converging on a cold weather pattern taking over Europe right after Christmas. Weatherbell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi also briefly mentioned this in his latest Saturday Summary (5:27), showing the European model for the 5 days after Christmas:

SatSum_20_12_14

Image cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary.

Meanwhile over the last couple of day GFS models have been consistently showing a return to winter on December 26, which for many places in Europe is called the “second day of Christmas”. Some places in Central Europe may even see light snow, even though not long ago a number of meteorologists were telling the public to write off snow for Christmas.

European winters getting colder

So is Europe seeing fewer white Christmases? Wetter.net meteorologist Dominik Jung recently wrote a few weeks ago that there has been no trend in the last 100 years showing white Christmases are becoming less frequent. Overall weather data show that Central European winters have been getting colder over the last 15 years.

Moreover the “Beast from the East” type winters tend to occur when solar activity is low, which means as solar cycle 24 begins to die off, cold and vicious winters may be more common in the second half of the current decade. And should solar cycle 25 be a weak one, as many experts expect, then Europe may be on the doorstep to a couple of decades of generally brutal winters.

Happy shivering New Year

Back to this winter, for the next 15 days or so, a slight thawing is shown to take place before cold really returns in time for New Year’s day. The latest GFS model runs shows widespread frost gripping most of Europe on January 1, 2015 and continuing for a few days.

WetterOnline_01_01_2015

GFS forecast for January 1, 2015. Image cropped from Wetteronline.de.

The good news is that the upcoming cold does not appear to be the stubborn “Beast from the East” type, which is notorious for sometimes lingering all winter long, as was the case in 2009/10. But as variable as European weather can be, nothing can be ruled out.

 

60-Hour Blizzard Paralyzes Northern China, Russian Orient: 90 cm Snow, 105 km/hr Winds, Minus 20°C!

The main media often avoid reporting catastrophes involving bitter cold winter conditions, as it may cause the public to doubt global warming. So it’s little wonder that they have opted not to report on an ongoing massive blizzard pounding the Russian Orient, northern parts of China and extending to northern Japan.

However, the smaller media outlets are picking up where the mainstream media is slacking off.

The French language www.catnet.net reports here on “a very powerful snowstorm” that has hit the Russian Orient and Northern China and pumped very cold Arctic air into the region. It writes:

The storm in particular hit the Khabarovsk and dell’Amnur regions with heavy snowfalls and icy winds in the sector of North-North East that have reached speeds of 120-130 km/hr over the Okhotsk Sea.”

catnet.net writes of widespread power outages and winds of 105 km/hr and 72 cm of snow in the region of Khabarovsk. The region of d’ell’Amnur also saw 50 cm of snow with winds of over 105 km/hr. The catnet.net reports that the city of Komsomolsk has been “completely paralyzed“.

The English-language news.xinhuanet.com writes of an “ongoing blizzard” that continues “pelting the region with snow” and temperatures falling to -17°C.

China’s CCTV News presents a video of the conditions here and reports, “Strong winds with heavy snow reduced visibility in Fuyuan to less than 50 meters, affecting local traffic.”

CCTV News here also reports of a 60-hour blizzard pounding China’s Heilongjiang province and continuing even today: “Outdoor temperatures reached as low as minus 20 degree Celsius and the accumulated snow is up to 90 cm deep, leaving residents struggling to open doors.

 

-60°F In Russia…So Cold That The Brake System Of Tupolev Tu-134 Jet Allegedly “Froze”!

A number of media outlets are reporting on how a Russian Tupolev jet “froze” at Igarka Airport in Siberia, some 3000 kilometers east of Moscow, 160 kilometers above the Arctic circle.

Igarka Siberia

The Russian RT News Agency here reports that the plane “froze to the ground“. Yet another report says that it was actually the plane’s brake system that froze in the horrible -60°F Siberian cold, and not the tires to the surface.

German Bild daily writes:

“At the village of Igarka, about 3000 kilometers east of Moscow, 74 passengers were waiting for the departure of their Tupolew Tu-134 to Krasnojarsk. But the plane did not take off – down to minus 52°C nothing worked: The brake system was frozen!”

But RT writes that “the ice-covered ground was the reason the plane couldn’t be moved

Technically and physically, I find it implausible that a plane would freeze to the ground, meaning it would have to have been first wet under the tires. Highly unlikely at such dreadful temperatures, even with the increased pressure from the weight of the plane. And wouldn’t such a problem occur routinely if that were the case?

The other question is what could happen to brake fluid or brake equipment at temperatures under -50°C? One could imagine things tending to gum up a bit.

Bild daily adds more details:

“Vladimir Artemenko, Technical Director of the airline, however denies that the jet’s braking system was frozen. “The aircraft was technically without faults’ he said. The local presecutor is now investigating for possible violations of maintenance regulations.”

Whatever caused the frozen jet, global warming doesn’t seem to have come to Igarka at all. What follows is a chart depicting mean November temperatures. As we see, the normal low for this date is around -26°C:

The daily average low (blue) and high (red) temperature with percentile bands (inner band from 25th to 75th percentile, outer band from 10th to 90th percentile). Source: weatherspark.com/averages/33842/11/Igarka-Krasnoyarsk-Krai-Russian-Federation

That makes a temperature of -52°C a heck of a lot colder than normal, not the sort of thing you’d expect from warming. In fact, looking at the chart, the chances of the temperature reaching -52°C up there in November are pretty slim.

 

German Weather Service Says New York Record Snow Due To “Powerful Cold Wave”…Lake Effect Is Natural

The German media are reporting on the massive snowfall hitting Buffalo and parts of New York state, describing the “lake effect” and an “early start of winter”.

Also meteorologist Christian Herold of Germany’s DWD Weather Service writes here how the story begins with the “remains of super-typhoon” Nuri, which developed into a low over Alaska’s Aleutian Islands a week ago and pumped massive amounts of tropical air into the Arctic. This led to an “unusual” air current pattern, with a large high parked over the west coast also pumping warm air into the Arctic. At the same time a powerful low developed over the central and eastern USA and pumped a huge blast of Arctic air deep into the United States.

“Never so cold, so early”

The result, Herold writes, was “a powerful cold wave over a large part of the United States which was as much as 9°C below normal for this time of the year. In some regions it was never so cold so early.”

Natural phenomenon, even occurs in Germany

Herold then describes the Buffalo “lake effect”, how the Arctic cold air mass swept across a relatively warm Lake Erie and picked up huge quantities of moisture and dumping it as snow over New York.  To his their credit, Herold resists the urge to connect it to climate change.

The DWD meteorologist explains that the “lake effect” is a natural phenomenon that is also possible in Germany, but a smaller scale, especially near lake Constance, recalling an episode there in February 2013. It also happens near the Baltic Sea.

Moreover, the DWD warns that thanks to this year’s warmer temperatures over Germany and the relatively warm lakes:

…this winter, thanks to the generally warm water temperatures, we will surely hear about this effect once or more. Something we can look forward to with some excitement.”

 

USA Temps “Have Dropped Off A Cliff”…”Coldest November Morning” In 38 Years! Record Lows Down To Texas!

Not very often does one see such an image…

Frozen North America 18 Nov 2014

Image snipped here, 8 a.m. EST, 18 November, 2014.

And it’s only mid-November…autumn!

Weatherbell Models here has an assessment of the situation so far. It writes:

America ‘as a whole’ awoke to the coldest it has been in November since 1976 — 38 years ago. The Lower-48 or CONUS spatially average temperature plummeted overnight to only 20°F typical of mid-winter not November 18th!

An astounding 226-million Americans will experience at or below freezing temperatures (32°F) on Tuesday as well — if you venture outdoors.

More than 78% of the surface area of the Lower-48 reached or fell below freezing Tuesday morning

Record lows from Idaho to Nebraska and Iowa south to Texas and east through the Great Lakes, the eastern 2/3 of the US will shatter decades-long and in some cases, century-long records. Temperatures east of the Rockies will be 20-40°F below climate normals.

Compared to normal, temperatures over the past several days have dropped off a cliff — to 10°C below climate normal –“

Keep reading here.

 

35 Degrees Below Zero And Colder Spreads, Grips 2 Million Square Kilometers Swath Of Central Siberia

Not only is North America bracing for a possible near record-setting cold blast from the Arctic, but also Siberia has been reporting massive snow cover and widespread cold. It’s only the first half of November and the dead of winter is still two months away!

Siberian cold 10Nov2014

The CO2 blanket having no effect in Siberia. Image source: earth.nullschool.net729.

This, experts have been warning, bodes ill for the chances of a harsh winter over North America and Europe. Two weeks ago Siberan snow cover and cold was already close to record high levels. That situation has only gotten worse, the Big Wobble Almanac here writes:

Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there’s a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter? So in the two and a half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse.
About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanketed Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967, according to Rutgers snow lab.”

There are other signs that Europe could be facing a cold winer, although so far early on it has seen weeks of very mild weather. The online prfire writes:

The first migrating Siberian swans landed in Britain – heralding the belated arrival of winter. Each year around 300 Bewick swans flock to the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust reserve at Slimbridge, Glos after flying 2,500 from Arctic Russia. This year’s arrival – coinciding with the first cold snap of the season – is the latest for 45 years and more than two weeks ahead of usual. […]

The Bewicks – the smallest and rarest members of the swan family – live in Siberia during the summer. In winter they migrate west – aided by chilling easterly winds – to escape winter temperatures of -25 degrees C.

Bewick’s have migrated to Slimbridge every winter for 60 years and adult swans teach their young the route. Their arrival comes after weather experts predicted the harshest winter in 100 years. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said last week: “The worst case and more plausible scenario could bring something on a similar par to the winter of 2009/10. ‘That was the coldest in 31 years, or an event close to 2010/11 which experienced the coldest December in 100 years.'”