Smoke And Deception Blanket Australia: NASA GISS Fudges Data, Cooling Turns Into Warming

Smoke And Deception Blanket Australia: NASA GISS Fudges Data, Cooling Turns Into Warming

By Kirye

and P Gosselin

We’ve been hearing much fake news about the Australian bush fires supposedly having been caused by man-made climate change. Yet it has emerged that Australian authorities were warned years ago that poor land management practices were in fact escalating the risk of devastating fires, according to an expert.

Forest fuel level highest in 1000 years

In 2015, bush fire scientist David Packham warned of a “huge blaze threat” and urged an “increase in fuel reduction burns”.

“Forest fuel levels had climbed to their most dangerous level in thousands of years,” wrote Darren Gray here in 2015. Today the public is being misled by climate alarmists and the media on the real causes of the devastating bush fires now taking place.

In fact NASA data shows that the area burned by global wildfires dropped by 25% since 2003, according to the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

Misleading temperature trends

Unfortunately, deception is not only taking place in the communication of Australian bush fires, but also authorities (NASA GISS) are grossly misleading the public in terms of temperature trends in Australia.

What follows are the curves of six Australian station that go back to the late 19th century. The comparator shows the plots of GISS “unadjusted data compared to the “homogenized” data:

Data: NASA GISS

Before the homogenization, the unadjusted data from 4 of the 6 stations showed cooling.

But after NASA changed the data, the cooling disappeared and all 6 stations showed warming!

Looking at the three stations Yamba. Moruya and Darwin, here we see that NASA dropped the early part of the temperature record (because they showed warm temperatures?). The result of course is a greater warming trend.

Look at NASA GISS data plots for Darwin Airport for example. See the huge differences between the versions:

So whenever people claim warming is man-made, they are right. But it’s not so much because of the CO2 emitted by man, but rather it is because of the statistical fudging of data at NASA GISS.

Unsettled: Scientists Find Ocean Heat Change Rate And Earth’s Energy Imbalance In DECLINE Since 2000

According to a new paper, the Earth’s ocean heat content time derivative (OHCTD) has been decreasing (-0.26 W/m²/decade) since 2000, coinciding with a similar deficit in the Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). The authors acknowledge such trends are “surprising” considering greenhouse gas emissions have risen.

Image Source: Dewitte et al., 2019

Earth’s energy budget imbalanced?

Global warming occurs when there is more energy coming in to the climate system than leaving. This results in a positive imbalance in the Earth’s energy budget.

Most studies claim the imbalance has been about +0.6 W/m² since the 2000s (Stephens et al., 2012, Llovel et al., 2013), although the uncertainty in the surface energy imbalance estimate reaches ±17 W/m² (Stephens et al., 2012). Uncertainty in the Earth’s energy imbalance is therefore more than 100 times larger than the total accumulated forcing for CO2 over a 10-year period (+0.2 W/m², Feldman et al., 2015).

Image Source: Stephens et al., 2012

A cooling global ocean?

Per the IPCC, 93% of “global warming” is manifested by rising trends in 0-2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) (IPCC AR5, Chapter 3).

In 2006 scientists published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters asserting global OHC had rapidly declined from 2003 to 2005.

Image Source: Lyman et al., 2006

Cooling must be corrected to show warming

Of course, a cooling ocean does not conform with climate models predicating ocean heat content should rise in tandem with CO2 emissions.

So the overseers of ocean heat content datasets set out to find a way to “correct” the data.

Sure enough, by 2007, NASA’s Josh Willis had discovered two biases that could explain the cooling. The OHC data could now be changed to show warming.

Josh Willis’s correcting-the-cooling feat was even featured in a NASA article blithely titled “Correcting Ocean Cooling” that same year.

Image Source: NASA.gov

Then a few years later, Loehle (2009) also found the global oceans had been cooling at a rate of -0.35 (±0.2) x 10²² Joules per year, but this time the cooling had extended from 2003 to 2008.

Image Source: Loehle, 2009

With “uncorrected” ocean data assessing a cooling trend from 2003 to 2008, it wasn’t long before the data overseers decided they must remove all the cooling from the record.

So they did.

Today, the period between 2003 and 2008 has been “corrected” to show a stint of rapid warming.

Image Source: Wikipedia

New paper: Earth’s energy imbalance in deficit since 2000

A new data analysis authored by three Belgian scientists (Dewitte et al., 2019) finds not only has there been more heat energy leaving than accumulating in the Earth’s climate system this century, but ocean heat content time derivative (OHCTD) has likewise been declining since the early 2000s.

Image Source: Dewitte et al., 2019

The authors assessed the trends in OHCTD during 1960-2015. They found that although there was a rising trend from 1982 to 2000, since 2000 the OHCTD trend has been decreasing at a rate of -0.26 W/m² per decade.

Compatibly, Dewitte and co-authors also determined there has been a declining trend (-0.16 ±0.11 W/m² per decade) in the Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) from 2000-2018.

The scientists acknowledge that these trends may seem “surprising” at first given the sharp rise in greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. But they find the agreement between the recent OHCTD and EEI trends “adds extra confidence” to their results.

Expect these results to be “corrected” by the data overseers in due time.

2019 Science Refutes Climate Alarm On Every Front… Shrinking Deserts, Growing Islands, Crumbling Consensus, Weaker Storms, Cooler Arctic Etc. Etc. Etc.

2019 science: Absolutely no climate alarm 

No alarm on every aspect: stable polar ice, normal sea level rise, no consensus, growing snow cover, less tropical storms, tornadoes, shrinking deserts, global greening, predictions wrong, models flawed, climate driven by sun, ocean cycles, biodiversity, warmer 1000 years ago…etc…

2019 saw a great amount of new science emerge showing that there’s nothing alarming or catastrophic about our climate. 

Some 2019 scientific findings

Need to make a presentation showing there is no climate alarm? The following findings we reported on in 2019 will put many concerns to rest.

Hundreds of peer-reviewed papers ignored by media

What follows are some selected top science-based posts we published here at NoTricksZone in 2019. These new findings show there is absolutely no climate alarm.

Hundreds of new peer-reviewed papers, charts, findings, etc – which the IPCC, activists and media ignore and even conceal. No wonder they’ve gotten so shrill.

January 2019

1. Globe’s islands are growing

2. Sahara shrinking and here

3. “Consensus” torpedoed – 500 new 2018 skeptic papers

February 2019

4. Rapidly declining storm energy

5. Arctic much warmer 9000 years ago

6. Austrian ZAMG says climate models not reliable

7. Oceans LESS acidic with rising CO2

8. WSJ: Germany world’s dumbest energy policy

9. Sea level over 3 meters higher 6000 years ago

10. Experts dismiss warming-polar vortex link

March 2019

11. Year 2000 predictions wrong

12. New paper shows sun drove recent warming

13. More alarmist predictions contradicted

April 2019

14. California lake 4-5°C warmer when CO2 at 200 ppm

15. Electric cars worse than diesel when it comes to CO2

16. Grain production quadruples as population doubles

18. 344,000 German households get power cut off 2018

19. Canada sees no warming in 25 years

20. Early 21st century hiatus is real

May 2019

21. 10 of 10 Antarctic coastal stations see no warming

22. Dr. Judith Curry: Model simulations unrealistic

23. Greenland glaciers stable or growing

24. Arctic ice melt barely impacting AMOC

25. Arctic 4.6°C WARMER in 1930s

June 2019

26. Scientists show Medieval Warm Period was global

27. Former MIT climate scientist says GW claims “untrustworthy” and here

28. World’s tide gauges show negligible sea level acceleration

29. Multiple papers show no “Gulf Stream collapse”

30. June Arctic ice has grown over past 13 years!

31. Northern Europe climate in sync with ocean cycles

July 2019

32. 12 papers show Medieval Warm Period warmer than today

33.India sea level 1.5 meters HIGHER 500 years ago

34. Scientists: Antarctica rapidly cooling!

35. 90 Leading Italian scientists sign: “Warming not catastrophic

August 2019

36. Renewable energies making electricity unaffordable

37. Medieval Warm Period was global, and here

38. Huge uncertainty behind global warming

39. Sea level rising slower than thought

40. 400% coral recovery since 2014

41. Weather globally has become LESS EXTREME

42. Greenland ice sheet, glaciers at high levels today

September 2019

43. Greta’s home Sweden 3°C colder today!

44. 500 scientists send letter to UN: NO climate emergency

45. Rapid Greenland ice melt deceleration

46. Cold weather deaths are RISING

47. Biodiversity harmed more by cooling

October 2019

48. Warming since 1979 caused entirely by natural factors

49. 74% of the globe has greened since 1981

50. No robust link between Arctic ice, European winter

51. Renowned geologist: climate change “totally exaggerated” 

52. Medical journal calls for hospitalization of climate dissidents

53. 55 NEW papers link climate change to solar activity

November 2019

54. Studies show equatorial sea level has fallen since 1600s

55. Satellite imagery prove GREENING PLANET

56. Scientists find no detectable human climate link

57. Scientists: CO2 a negligible climate factor

58. Scientists: North Atlantic has COOLED since 1970s

59. German scientists say climate models out of control

60. Modern warming tame compared to 1000 years ago

December 2019

61. Over 100 papers show very low CO2 climate sensitivity

62. 288 new papers show today’s warming not unprecedented

63. Attn Greta: smart phones emit 125 million tons CO2/yr 

64. New study shows Arctic 4.6°C warmer in the 1930s

65. 350 recent papers show current warming not unusual

Next time you debate some alarmist, just give them the link to this site!

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY! 

Scientists Document A DECLINE In Overall Greenhouse Effect Forcing From 1985-2014

CO2 concentrations rose from 345 ppm to 398 ppm in the 29 years from 1985 to 2014. Mainstream scientists sympathetic to the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) paradigm have nonetheless reported the overall greenhouse effect forcing has been flat to declining throughout this period.

1. Cess and Udelhofen, 2003  Due to the downward trend in cloud cover, absorbed shortwave radiation increased and the overall greenhouse effect’s forcing influence declined from 1985-1999. The authors consider these trends to be driven by natural variability.

Image Source: Cess and Udelhofen, 2003

2. Song et al., 2016  The overall greenhouse effect went on “hiatus” from 1992-2014, with the combined forcing effects of water vapor, cloud, and CO2 declining by -0.04 W/m² per year (-0.4 W/m² per decade) during this interval. Again, the main reason for the declining greenhouse effect trend was the downward trend in cloud cover.

Image Source: Song et al., 2016

3. Kato et al., 2018   Downward longwave radiation (DLR), or the overall greenhouse effect, responds to variability in water vapor and cloud. CO2 isn’t mentioned in the paper as a factor influencing DLR. Total DLR was negative (-0.2 W/m²) during this decade, insinuating rising CO2 had no net warming climate impact. In contrast, downward shortwave forcing increased by +2.2 W/m² per decade from 1986-2000 and by +1.3 W/m² from 2005-2014. These positive shortwave absorption trends explain the warming during this period.

Image Source: Kato et al., 2018

Greta’s Generational Supremacists: Indoctrinated German Girls Sing: “My Grandma Is An Old Environmental Scumbag!”

Child abuse by German WDR 2 public broadcasting? Young schoolgirls taught to hate, made to sing “My grandma is an old environmental scumbag” because she drives an SUV, eats meat and takes cruises

WDR 2 broadcasting children’s song: “My grandma is an environmental scumbag!” Image: WDR 2

We all recall how at the UN, green wunderkind Greta Thunberg lambasted the older generations for allegedly ruining the planet, climate and even her future. She also threateningly warned that her generation “will be watching” us.

Greta’s generation would like to have everyone believe that all of today’s social ills have been caused by the an irresponsible generation which now needs to step aside.

Today’s young generational hostility in Europe has hit unprecedented levels, thanks to environmental radicalism and zealots in and out of the media.

Taught to hate

Note that these kids did not just become naturally hostile to its older generations on their own. They got plenty of help being taught to be so by hateful by extreme activists who have an environmental and tyrannical agenda.

The latest example of indoctrinated intolerance and hatred is brought to us by WDR 2 German public broadcasting, which on December 27th choreographed and proudly broadcast a children’s song with lyrics dehumanizing senior citizens – grandmothers in particular – as “old environmental scumbags”!

WDR 2 video. The new German generation of supremacists? Indoctrinated German schoolgirls singing about how their grandmothers are scumbags.

Featured is a chorus of smiling, young German schoolgirls singing: “Meine Oma ist ne alte Umweltsau” (My grandma is an old environmental scumbag) lambasting grandmas and the older generation supposedly because they use SUVs and fly to go on their holidays, and so are creating a global mess.

Loud backlash

The song, meant to environmentally indoctrinate kids, didn’t go down well with the usually patient German public, especially with the older generations, which demographically have become the country’s largest voting sector.

The song triggered harsh and controversial reactions, as among others recipients felt (and others) hurt and even looked down on,” reports bedeutungonline.de.

“Gee, it was just a little humor”

Needless to say, after some hesitation and weak attempts to defend or to play it all down, the song was taken offline in the night of December 28. Now the WDR 2 and green activists are falling all over themselves insisting it was just an innocent parody and they didn’t mean anything bad with it, and implied how it’s unfortunate some people can’t take a little joke.

Well, teaching kids to hate is no laughing matter – especially in a country with a very problem history.

What follows are the song’s text in English, so you can judge for yourself.

Meine Oma ist ne alte Umweltsau

My grandma rides a motorbike, a motorbike, a motorbike in the chicken coop.
That’s a thousand liters of super every month. My grandma is an old environmental scumbag.

My grandma says riding a motorcycle is cool…
She uses it as a wheelchair at the retirement home. My grandma is an old environmental scumbag.

My grandma drives to the doctor in an SUV.
She runs over two old ladies with a rollator, my grandma is an old environmental scumbag.

My grandma makes a cutlet, a cutlet, a cutlet every day.
Because discount meat costs next to nothing, my grandma is an old environmental scumbag.

My grandma doesn’t fly anymore, she’s purified, purified, purified. Instead, she now goes on a cruise ten times a year, my grandma is not an environmental scumbag. My grandma’s not an environmental scumbag.”

The song ends with the audio quote by Greta Thunberg: “We will not let you get away with this!”

The WDR 2, of course, was funded to produce this political rubbish and to commit this child abuse – through mandatory fees levied on every citizen in Germany.

2004 “Expert” Climate Predictions Of “Siberian Climate” For Britain, “Anarchy”, “Famine” Turn Out Preposterous

German site Alles Schall und Rauch (Everything is smoke and mirrors) here reminds us how back in 2004, “leading experts” warned the planet would likely be going down in flames by 2020!

Forecast 2004 – Global doomsday by 2020

By Freeman

(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)

Only three more days and the first decade of the 21st century will be over. And there are also only three days left until the climate catastrophes predicted in 2004 will have to occur. Back then a report by “climate experts” was released and was widely reported in the media. It stated that the consequences of man-made climate change would cause sea-level rise, food and water shortages by 2020, leading to “environmentally driven conflict constellations” and “which can lead to violence or even war”.

Der Spiegel reported on the study, which George W. Bush presented, on February 22, 2004:

The scenario is as threatening as it is realistic: the Gulf Stream, which like a gigantic hot water heating system that pumps billions of liters of tropical water to the north, loses power, changes direction and suddenly collapses completely. Icy winds roar across northern Europe, devastating storms and floods devastate the coasts. The forests die off, the plains around the North and Baltic Seas freeze into tundra. The dramatic climate changes are putting people and governments in dire straits. Oil is running out, peacekeeping alliances erode. Bloody conflicts break out, wars for raw materials and food devastate the continents. Within a few years, the world is brought to the brink of total anarchy.”

On the same day as Der Spiegel, February 22, 2004, the British Guardian added:

Climate change could lead to a global catastrophe in the next 20 years, costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters.”

A secret report suppressed by US defense chiefs and obtained by The Observer warns that major European cities will sink below rising sea levels if Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread violence will erupt worldwide.”

Dead wrong

But in three days’ time, the year 2020 will be nothing like the catastrophic predictions of doomsday made by the so-called climate experts and disseminated by the serious media. After 16 years of NOTHING!

Right at the forefront of the panic-mongering back in 2004 was and still is the German upper climatic liar, Professor Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Institute for Climate Impact Research in Potsdam, founded in 1992, who for many years was Merkel’s advisor on the climate crisis and who calls himself the “father of the 2-degree target”.

In 2004, he was part of a group of climate scientists invited to visit the White House to inform the Bush administration about the current results of climate research.

Horror scenarios meant to sway Bush politically

With their horror scenarios about the future, the climatologists wanted their “expert opinion” to force Bush to accept man-made climate change as a real phenomenon. They also hoped  their panic-mongering about environmental degradation and the resulting climate refugees would convince the United States to sign global treaties to reduce CO2 emissions.

In a speech at the Federal Delegates’ Conference of the Greens in Berlin at the end of November 2017, Schellnhuber presented his idea of a climate pass, which had been strongly applauded by the party conference delegates, for the first time in public:

Anyone who has to leave their home country because of climate change should be allowed to emigrate to the countries that are mainly responsible for climate change is his position.”

This is the ideological background to the debate in the Bundestag, which on Friday 13 December discussed the consequences of “climate-induced migration, flight and expulsion” at the request of the Greens. The motion stated:

Whole archipelagoes and wide coastal areas threaten to disappear from the world map in the future. Already today, more people are being displaced domestically by climate- and environmental disasters such as floods and storms than by violence and conflict.

The Bundestag should therefore call on the Merkel regime to press ahead with the introduction of a climate passport, which, according to estimates of a flood of 140 million refugees, would make a German, or EU and US passport possible.”

The Greens have gone completely nuts and are the real cause of a catastrophe and destruction, namely through the mass migration and deindustrialization they are demanding.

Dire  predictions turn out to be phony

They justify their destructive policies with claims that are not true and disasters that do not happen. Nothing of what was announced to us decades ago has come true.

All the predictions of an end of the world go back much further than 2004, because I remember the beginning of the apocalyptic predictions of the 1970s.

Rest of post (in German) here

 

Climate Hypocrisy: Berlin’s Top Socialist-Green Government Officials Travel To “Pedestrian Meeting” …In Government Vehicles!

Here’s one that almost got past my radar.

Last September the leftist Berliner Zeitung (BZ) here reportsed on climate hypocrisy coming from Berlin, Germany’s socialist-green city government and the city’s mayor, Michael Müller.

The administration of Germany’s capital is really serious about climate change, so much so that they earnestly participated in an EU-sponsored action on getting more people out of those sinful cars and instead onto their feet and thus so achieve a more climate friendly form of mobility – it was all part of the “European Mobility Week”.

But according to the BZ, the pedestrian lifestyle (and going without flying) is not something that Berlin’s ruling green socialists are really into themselves, but rather it’s something for the millions of little climate-misbehaving people, who pay taxes and honestly should be there to serve the ruling class.

Traveling over in 16 luxury government limousines

The BZ’s Benedikt Teichmann reported how Berlin’s Transportation Senator Regine Günther (46, Green Party) had twittered about the European Mobility Week just a day earlier: “Join us, and leave the car at home.” But then just a day later, she and other members of Berlin’s Socialist-Green government “hopped into their large government cars to get to their meeting”.

According to the BZ, Berlin’s “Socialist, Communist-Green government drove over with 16 limousines to their pedestrian conference”, which took place near Berlin in Hellersdorf.

The European Mobility Week website proudly states that the event this year saw participants in 50 countries across the globe.

And according to its summary report here, organizers boasted of a new participation record: “EUROPEANMOBILITYWEEK 2019 had the highest participation rate ever witnessed since its launch in 2002 (3,135 participating towns and cities), surpassing the record set by the previous year’s campaign.”

Source

Carpooling, going by foot “not an option”

When Berlin Mayor Michael Müller (SPD Socialist Party) was asked why he and other members of his administration did not go to their meeting concerning pedestrian mobility by foot, or at least carpool in the spirit of environmental protection, he answered:

We all come from different places. And today when we all have our heavy files with us, it’s just not an option.”

What follows is the European Commission’s video promoting pedestrian mobility:

Unfortunately, few of the climate-rescuing politicians are following their own advice. For them it’s just too inconvenient, and walking is not that cool.

350 Papers Published Since 2017 Subvert The Claim That Post-1850s Warming Has Been Unusual, Global

In the last 35 months, 350 peer-reviewed scientific papers have been published containing documented evidence that undermines the popularized conception of a slowly-cooling Earth followed by a dramatic hockey-stick-shaped recent uptick, or an especially unusual global-scale warming during modern times.

During 2017 and 2018, there were over 250 papers published in scientific journals documenting the lack of any unusual warming in the modern era.

253 Non-Global Warming Papers (2017 & 2018)

Though research is still ongoing, there have been 100 more papers added thus far in 2019.

100 Non-Global Warming Papers (2019)

To clarify, some regions of the Earth have been warming in recent decades or at some point in the last 150 years.

Some regions have also been cooling for decades at a time.

And many regions have shown no significant net changes or trends in either direction relative to the last few decades to hundreds to thousands of years.

Succinctly, then, scientists publishing in peer-reviewed journals have increasingly provided documentation that there is nothing historically unprecedented or remarkable about today’s climate when viewed in the context of long-term natural variability.

A tiny sample of the 2019 list is shown below.


Klippel et al., 2019

[A]n analysis of instrumental temperatures for the period 1955–2013 shows that in northwestern Greece, statistically significant trends in summer temperature are absent (Feidas, 2016). The cooling trend from 1950–1976, previously reported throughout the Mediterranean basin, was followed by an, so far, insignificant warming (Piervitali et al., 1997; del Río et al., 2011). Our reconstruction mirrors this absence of a clear positive trend at decadal scale. … In total, 110 cold and 48 warm extremes appear in the 100SP reconstruction, and 105 cold and 57 warm extremes in the 10SP reconstruction (Figure 5 and Table S1). The year 1240 was the warmest summer, with reconstructed anomalies of +3.13 °C and +2.64 °C in the 100SP and 10SP reconstructions, respectively. The two coldest summers in the 100SP reconstruction are 1217 and 1884 with anomalies of –3.71 °C and –3.61 °C, respectively. The two coldest summers in the 10SP reconstruction occurred in different years, 1035 and 1117, with anomalies of –3.11 °C and -3.14°C, respectively. The third coldest summer in the 100SP and fourth coldest summer in the 10SP reconstructions, is 1959, which is the second coldest year in the instrumental EOBS v.15 record. The coldest decade is 1811–1820 (–0.73°C) and the warmest decade 1481–1490 (+0.88°C; calculated only for 100SP reconstruction). The elimination of decadal trends in the 10SP reconstruction causes events to appear more evenly distributed. However, over the past 450 years the occurrence of warm temperature extremes is substantially less frequent compared to preceding centuries.”


Booker et al., 2019

Warm Period 1 (~1924–2006 CE) was characterized by Tcal from 23 to 34°C (average 28.3 ± 0.96 °C), which is similar to the current seawater temperature for Grand Cayman and significantly warmer than CP 2. During this period there were two warm intervals (WI 2: ~1924–1932, WI 3: ~1972–1993) and two cool intervals (CI 3: ~1960–1972, CI 4: ~1993–2006). The warm intervals are characterized by an increase in Tcal of ~5–7 °C. The cool intervals are characterized by a decrease of ~4–5 °C. … • Mild Period 1 (~2006–2014 CE) was characterized by Tcal of 25 to 33 °C (average 27.5 ± 0.96 °C) which is similar to the current average seawater temperature for Grand Cayman (t-test: p b 0.01; Fig. 14).”


Fröb et al., 2019

“The container vessel M/V Nuka Arctica, owned by Royal Arctic Line, operates between Ilulissaat, Greenland and Aalborg, Denmark. … The SST measurements on Nuka Arctica show a substantial cooling during winters between 2004 and 2017 (Figures 2c and S6). From the IRM-W through the ICE-W box, the SST trend varies between -0.084±0.020 and -0.096±0.018 ◦C yr−1. Towards the east, thecooling is less pronounced, and in the FB box, the SST trend is only -0.045±0.016 ◦C yr−1. Averaged over all boxes, SST decreased by 0.78±0.19◦C per decade.”


Watanabe et al., 2019

“[P]revious studies have observed that global surface air-temperatures remained relatively constant between the late-1990s and 2015, although climate models predicted continued anthropogenic warmingThis so-called global-warming hiatus has received considerable attention [Kosaka et al., 2013]. Satellite-based SST data suggest that the main cause of the global-warming hiatus is the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is the dominant mode of atmosphere-ocean interactions in the subtropical Pacific. The IPO reversed from a positive to a negative phase in the late 1990s, i.e. the timing of the IPO phase change coincides with the onset of the global-warming hiatus. The negative IPO led to anomalous cooling in the eastern Pacific and this is thought to be a major cause of the global-warming hiatus. … The 26-year SSTanom record shows a significant regime shift in October 1996 (peak: 0.202; P < 0.01: Fig. 2b). The mean (range) of SSTanom is 0.73 ± 2.59 °C (10.96 °C) before 1996 and −0.46 ± 2.71 °C (11.72 °C) after 1996 (Fig. 2b). SST anom (δ18OSW-anom) shows a gradual cooling (decrease) over the past-26 years (−0.03 ± 0.01 °C/year and −0.02 ± 0.00‰VSMOW/year, respectively).”


Borgaonkar, 2019


Buckley et al., 2019


Gan et al., 2019

“Daily Minimum temperature (Tmin) is an important variable in both global and regional climate changes, and its variability can greatly affect the ecological system. In the early 21st century, warming slowdown is seen over the North Hemisphere and North America is one of the major cooling centers. … In this study, we found that Tmin experienced an obvious decline in North America during warming slowdown period. Such Tmin decline is closely related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the correlation between the decadal components of Tmin and AMO reached 0.71 during 1950-2014.”


Zhang et al., 2019

“Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends … Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends.”


Eck et al., 2019

“A majority (12/14) of the regions within the SAM [southern Appalachian Mountains] have experienced a long‐term decline in mean winter temperatures since 1910.”


Kutta and Hubbart, 2019

Between 1900 and 2016, climatic trends were characterized by significant reductions in the maximum temperatures (−0.78°C/century; p = 0.001), significant increases in minimum temperatures (0.44 °C/century; p = 0.017) [overall -0.34°C per century], and increased annual precipitation (25.4 mm/century) indicative of a wetter and more temperate WV climate. Despite increasing trends of growing degree days during the first (p ≤ 0.015) and second half of the period of record, the long-term trend indicated a decrease in GDD [warm growing degree days] of approximately 100 °C/days.”


He et al., 2019


Kuzmina et al., 2019

Even during coldest time of the Pleistocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), summer temperatures were higher here than they are today (Alfimov, Berman, 2001, Alfimov et al., 2003). … The Pleistocene megafauna of the North Slope was dominated by mostly horses … There are depressions in the main Pleistocene unit filled by early Holocene sediments containing well-preserved leaves, logs and stumps of Populus balsamifera. Since the modern limit of this tree species is south of the North Slope, the presence of fossil poplar indicates warmer than present climate during the early Holocene. … The second warming (around 9–8 ka), which corresponds with Boreal Period of the BlyttSernander scheme, was probably the warmest interval of the Holocene in Beringia (Kaufman et al., 2004). Trees spread north to coastal areas in Siberia (Kaplina, Lozhkin, 1982; Kuzmina, Sher, 2006), spruce forest reached the central Brooks Range (Anderson, Brubaker, 1994), and beaver occupied formerly treeless landscapes in Alaska (Robinson et al., 2007). Climate on the North Slope was about 2 to 3°C warmer than today; and moisture was lower (Nelson, Carter, 1987).”


Lüning et al., 2019

The main MCA warming phase coincides with a higher SAM, more El Niño-dominated ENSO, more positive IPO and higher solar activity (Abram et al., 2014; Conroy et al., 2008; Steinhilber et al., 2012; Vance et al., 2015) (Fig. 5). Spectral analysis of the classical Mt Read tree rings series (site 5), yields characteristic cycle periods associated with the solar Gleissberg (80 years) and Suess-de Vries (210 years) cycles (Cook et al., 1995; Cook et al., 2000). … An alternation of well-defined multicentennial warm and cold phases has been reconstructed for Grotto of Oddities in SE Australia (site 3). Temperatures oscillated with an amplitude of more than 1°C during the past 1500 years (McGowan et al., 2018).”


Salvatteci et al., 2019

“[O]tolith δ18O data from Peruvian catfish (Galeichthys peruvianus) excavated from archeological sites in northern Peru suggest SST ~4 °C warmer than presentday SST (Andrus et al., 2002).”


Fletcher et al., 2019

The Pliocene is an intriguing climatic interval that offers important insights into climate feedbacks. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations were, at times, as high as modern ones (Fig. 1), but generally show a decreasing trend throughout the Pliocene (Haywood et al., 2016; Pagani et al., 2010; Royer et al., 2007; Stap et al., 2016), Although CO2 estimates from different methods do not converge, the modeled direct effects of these CO2 discrepancies appear to be small (Feng et al., 2017). Of additional importance for comparability to the modern climate system, continental configurations were similar to present (Dowsett et al., 2016). While global mean annual temperatures (MATs) during the Pliocene were only ∼ 3°C warmer than in the present day, Arctic land surface MATs may have been as much as 15 to 22°C warmer (Ballantyne et al., 2010; Csank et al., 2011a, b; Fletcher et al., 2017). Further, Arctic sea surface temperatures may have been as much as 10 to 15°C warmer than modern ones (Robinson, 2009), and sea levels were approximately 25 m higher than present (Dowsett et al., 2016). As a result, the Arctic terrestrial environment was significantly different from today, with boreal ecosystems at much higher latitudes (Salzmann et al., 2008).”

German Professor Of Mechanical Engineering Says Electric Mobility “A Pointless Dream”…”Will Never Work”

Ingolstadt-today.de here reports on Professor Dr. Jörg Wellnitz from the Technical University in Ingolstadt calling the future of electric cars a “pointless dream” and that this is an opinion shared by many other experts.

Mechanical engineering professor says electric mobility “will never work”. Photo credit

“Pointless” endeavor

“The uncompromising path to e-mobility is as pointless as it is without any discernible effect on the Earth’s climate,” he told the Ingolstadt-today.de. “The German professor of mechanical engineering has “stepped on a lot of people’s toes with this,” the Ingolstadt-today.de reports.

E-mobility has become a “question of faith,” Wellnitz says, adding that “people either believe in the evil CO2 as a climate killer, or they don’t.”

Enormous costs for no benefit

Wellnitz quotes Danish climate researcher Björn Lomborg, who sees Germany’s foray into green energy as a huge waste of resources, and who calculated that if Germany spent 43 billion on CO2 reduction over 80 years, global warming would be reduced by just 0.01 degrees.”

Industrial suicide for Germany

Wellnitz thinks that the ambitious targets for sales of electric cars will end with a slump in sales for German car manufacturers, is sure the electric car “can’t work”, that it is “industrial suicide”and it too is also “a climate catastrophe”. He thinks people should be given what they need, a highly efficient and clean engine like the diesel, for example.

According to Wellnitz, around eight percent of global CO2 emissions are attributable to the car.

CO2 easy to politicize

The distinguished expert also says CO2 is not a climate killer, but a vital gas, one that it is extremely easy to politicize. “It is easy to turn this screw, everyone understands it and it can be measured immediately, people believe. But recent research, says Wellnitz, has shown that even if the saturation of CO2 in the atmosphere were to reach 800 ppm, an almost unattainable value, global warming would only be affected by around 0.4 degrees.

He adds: “If there is a greenhouse effect, it’s been around for a long time.” Other gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and CFCs are far more harmful to the climate and relevant to global warming than CO2, writes Ingolstadt-today.de. “But we focused on CO2 and the car has to be evil,” says Wellnitz.

“Massive renunciation of cherished amenities”

The professor of mechanical engineering also claims that a climate-neutral Europe is impossible as long as we produce our goods in China or India and that consumer behavior would have to change radically if we want to achieve CO2 neutrality. In plain language that would mean: “a massive renunciation of cherished amenities.”

Ingolstadt-today.de also writes that Wellnitz also reacts with some incomprehension to “15-year-old climate ambassadors who don’t even know how to spell C02, but who let their parents drive them to tree-planting campaigns in their SUVs.”

Middle Age trading of indulgences

Wellnitz himself says CO2 has become a question of faith and that the trade in pollution certificates is reminiscent of the indulgence trade of the Middle Ages. For him it makes more sense to prepare for global warming of two degrees and that the shortage of water will become a massive problem for the next decades, a problem that is not as easy to solve as the problem with fossil fuels.

“Will never work”

Germany is sacrificing its high level of competence in engine design for an electrical future that, according to Wellnitz, “will never work.”

Merry Christmas! Thanks Everyone, For Another Successful Climate Blogging Year!

Enjoy one of my very favorites! Brings back a lot of wonderful memories.

Wishing devoted readers a

Merry Christmas!

Study: No Discernible Link From CO2 Forcing To Climate For 97% Of The Last 425 Million Years

For CO2 to be considered a driver of Earth’s temperatures, changes in CO2 that uni-directionally correlate with temperatures should not be an exceptional occurrence. Yet a causal link from CO2 radiative forcing to temperature changes could hypothetically be inferred for just 2.6% of the last 425 million years.

A detailed analysis (Davis, 2017) of temperature and CO2 proxies over the Phanerozoic Eon by environmenalist Dr. W. Jackson Davis  finds that for 77.9% of the record there was a non-discernible correlation between CO2 and temperature.

On the occasion there was a correlation between CO2 and temperature, most (60%) of the correlation instances were negative. In other words, when a correlation could be discerned, temperatures fell as CO2 rose or CO2 fell as temperatures rose more often than CO2 and temperature rose and fell with a semblence of synchronicity.

If we assume temperature changes are radiatively forced or amplified by CO2, this cause-effect link could be correlationally established for just 2.6% of the 4.25 million-year record.

As Dr. Davis concludes, “changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate.”

Image Source: Davis, 2017

No discernible correlation between CO2 and temperature for the last 80,000 years either

Some newly published papers also contradict the claim CO2 is a driver of Earth’s temperature changes.

Li and Born (2019) document 8-16°C climate warmings (D-O events) in Greenland that extended to both hemispheres between about 80 and 15 thousand years ago. (Though global in scope, temperature changes were less pronounced outside Greenland.)

These abrupt warmings occurred within decades (or less), and they occurred without any CO2 fluctuation before or after the change.

CO2 hovered around 190 ppm to 200 ppm throughout each warming and cooling event.

Even more fascinating, it’s been suggested that these warm-ups may have required no external forcing, as they’re considered an “unforced oscillation”.

The climate system can warm by 8-16°C within decades via internal variability.

Image Source: Li and Born (2019)

Throughout the last glacial, when CO2 remained effectively unchanged at about 200 ppm, there were warming periods that exceeded the Holocene’s thermal maximum by 2-6°C in locations ranging from Southern Europe to Russia to California.

Of course, none of these warming and cooling climate transitions could be associated with changes in CO2 either.

Image Source: Bidauretta, 2019  & Ramos-Roman et al., 2018

Image Source: Ganyushkin et al., 2018

Image Source: Feakins et al., 2019

Leading Evolutionary Biologist Says “CO2 Is A Blessing”, Rejects Cult-Like “Earth Heat Death” Claims

German evolutionary biologist and physiologist Prof. Dr. Ulrich Kutschera told in an interview that “CO2 is a blessing for mankind” and that the claimed “97% consensus” among scientists is “a myth”.

Hat-tip :Die kalte Sonne.

Evolutionary biologist Prof. Dr. Ulrich Kutschera. Source: ResearchGate

97% consensus claim “untenable” 

Kutschera, who has authored over three hundred scientific publications and twelve books, told the German “Junge Freiheit” (JF) that the 97% figure on consensus was created in 2013 by Australian cognitive scientist John Cook and that it has since “turned out to be untenable”, as proven by David R. Legates.

“Cook and Powell evaluated an arbitrary number of climate publications according to questionable criteria,” Kutschera told JF.

Climate doomsday “kind of religious cult”

When asked why he also signed the European Climate Declaration declaring no climate emergency, he said he considered it “important that a professional educational initiative, hopefully politically neutral, should finally emerge” and that he rejected extremes, among them the “‘climate alarmists’ who predict a fictitious, imminent ‘earth heat death’ and thus practice a kind of religious cult.”

“Basic nutrient for all plants”

“So since plants need CO2 as a basic foodstuff, there would be no life on earth without this trace gas,” said Kutschera, in response to claims that CO2 is a pollutant. “Therefore, the scientific discipline of plant physiology is of central importance, and CO2 is therefore a blessing for mankind!”

CO2 tax “nonsensical”

“Since about 1850, the CO2 content of the air has risen from 0.028 volume percent (280 ppm) to 0.041 volume percent (410 ppm) today. This has led to an increase in global photosynthesis – in other words, we humans have made the earth greener!” said the highly controversial professor from Kassel.

He also calls the planned CO2 tax “nonsensical” and that it is “actually a kind of new ‘special food tax’ on the state”.

Earth being greened by man

The renowned biologist also told JF that the natural carbon cycle has been altered by man so “that currently about a third of the CO2 we put into the air is consumed by plants, which increases their growth. The result is that the earth is greened by man, including higher crop yields – from which, incidentally, agriculture benefits worldwide – i.e. mainly poor countries that depend on agricultural products to a much greater extent than we do.”

97% of FFF activists don’t understand carbon cycle

Kutschera criticizes the hysteria that some of his fellow scientists are spreading and he sees the climate issue as highly politicized and poorly understood. Concerning the Fridays for Future activists, he tells JF:

As I have been active in nature conservation since my early youth – building ponds, etc. – I basically rate the movement positively. However, I fear that more than 97 percent of its activists can neither define the term ‘climate’ nor have understood the carbon cycle or the function of the Rubisco enzyme, and therefore act purely politically. Since the irrational climate cult is on the rise, I advocate a ‘Fridays for Plant Physiology’ movement.”

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